The basic assumptions of the quantitative version of the Comprehensive Method of Rockburst Hazard Evaluation

This article describes the process and results of applying a new, quantitative version of what is, in the Polish mining industry, a well-known, so-called Comprehensive Method of Rockburst Hazard Evaluation (CMRHE). The CMRHE is composed of four particular methods (i.e. mining seismology, seismoacoustics, drilling, and the partly subjective expert method of hazard evaluation). Despite its popularity, CMRHE is not well defined in the mathematical sense. The subject, i.e. the rockburst hazard, is not quantitatively (or otherwise) well defined within the CMRHE Instructions or the four particular methods. In fact, the CMRHE tries to predict an undefined subject, and there is no guarantee that the particular methods attempt to identify the same (undefined) hazard. It is not clear how the four particular results should be combined to arrive at the final hazard prediction. The quantitative version, described here, starts by defining the hazard and all of its components as probabilities. These can then be combined according to probability rules. This analysis demonstrated that all the relevant pieces of (presumably independent) information - exactly the same as applied by CMRHE - can be expressed as probability distributions, each one dependent on its explanatory variable and each one assuming a scalar value under any concrete local conditions. Using the quantitative version of CMRHE, the product of these distributions bases the formal estimator of rockburst hazard on exactly the same information as the original CMRHE. The fact that the logarithm of this product is the sum of "points" stresses the simple connection between the original CMRHE and its quantitative version. An example using actual (albeit compressed) data illustrates the simplicity of this application.