Irrationality or Efficiency of Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts? Implications from the Anchoring Bias Test

Recent findings indicate that macroeconomic survey forecasts are anchoring biased and therefore are inefficient. However, despite highly significant test coefficients, a bias adjustment does not improve forecasts' quality. We find that the cognitive bias is a statistical artifact because the an...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Review of Finance 2013-11, Vol.17 (6), p.2097-2131
Hauptverfasser:	Hess, Dieter, Orbe, Sebastian
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Bias Economic conditions Economic forecasts Estimation bias Macroeconomics Studies
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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