Using Prediction Market Data to Illustrate Undergraduate Probability

Prediction markets provide a rare setting, where results of mathematical probability theory can be related to events of real-world interest and where theory can be compared to data. The paper discusses two simple mathematical results—the halftime price principle and the serious candidates principle—...

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Veröffentlicht in:	The American mathematical monthly 2013-08, Vol.120 (7), p.583-593
1. Verfasser:	Aldous, David J
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Baseball Betting College students Distribution functions Market prices Martingales Mathematical analysis Mathematical theorems Political candidates Prediction markets Probability distribution Random variables Stock markets
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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