Forecasting pell program applications using structural aggregate models
Demand for postsecondary financial aid offered under the Pell Grant program has proved notoriously difficult to predict in recent years. The U.S. Department of Education maintains a microsimulation model to generate forecasts of applications, but the data requirements of this model are fairly severe...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Economics of education review 1995, Vol.14 (4), p.385-394 |
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| creator | Cavin, Edward S. |
| description | Demand for postsecondary financial aid offered under the Pell Grant program has proved notoriously difficult to predict in recent years. The U.S. Department of Education maintains a microsimulation model to generate forecasts of applications, but the data requirements of this model are fairly severe and the results subject to considerable error, at least in some years. This paper proposes an alternative model for predicting Pell program applications that uses aggregate data, yet avoids some of the limitations of simple linear models. Using the moments of the aggregate income distribution and other macrovariables, this model empirically performs no worse on average than the microsimulation model, and better in some periods. [
JEL I21, I28, C53] |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/0272-7757(95)00020-K |
| format | Article |
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| identifier | ISSN: 0272-7757 |
| ispartof | Economics of education review, 1995, Vol.14 (4), p.385-394 |
| issn | 0272-7757 1873-7382 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_1307028602 |
| source | RePEc; Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals; Periodicals Index Online |
| subjects | Aggregate Model Higher Education Mathematical Models Microsimulation Paying for College Pell Grant Program Simulation Statistical Analysis Student Financial Aid Supply and Demand |
| title | Forecasting pell program applications using structural aggregate models |
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