Microsimulation Modeling of Student Success in Community Colleges Using MicroCC

While microsimulation modeling has not been utilized extensively in either social science or educational research, it offers to greatly improve understanding, especially of careers and institutional changes over time. The MicroCC microsimulation model was developed and tested on over 250,000 community college students who enrolled in Connecticut and Rhode Island. MicroCC simulated term-by-term progress and completion of new students for 4.5 years. Using data-based effect coefficients, the model simulated decisions for four process factors: re-enrollment, full-time attendance, the number of courses taken, and course completions. The model allowed decomposition of racial, gender, and other differences in success rates by process factors. The findings have major relevance for improving student success rates, especially by suggesting ways to make student advising more effective. Besides serving as an analytical tool, MicroCC allows projection of completion rates under “what-if” scenarios. Illustrative input data for MicroCC and a user and access guide are given in appendices.