Conditional populist voting in Chile, Greece, Spain, and Bolivia

Most studies see demand for populist forces driven by broad sociological factors that make certain issues salient among specific constituencies; however, this argument is normally not tested at the individual level and, when it is, it is tested through proxy measures of populism. In this chapter, we propose and test a more nuanced theory of populist voting. Our theory argues that populist attitudes are themselves important predictors of voting, interacting with ideological or issue positions. The activation of these attitudes is highly dependent on contextual factors. We test this theory through a comparison of recent voting in Chile, Greece, Spain, and Bolivia. These four cases differ in the degree to which the party system has faced a crisis of representation, the availability of populist parties with different ideological positions, and the degree to which populists have become entrenched as the new ruling parties, allowing us to test predictions that flow from the ideational theory. Based on our findings we argue that the ideational theory of populism can be compatible with, and perhaps fine-tuned by, a closer dialogue with canonical models of voting behaviour by focusing on the specific processes by which attitudes get activated. This chapter provides evidence that populist parties find strength in activating latent populist predispositions. It aims to propose and test a more nuanced theory of populist voting. The chapter aims to test nuanced theory through a comparison of voting in Chile, Greece, Spain, and Bolivia. These four cases differ in the degree to which the party system has faced a crisis of representation, the availability of populist parties with different ideological positions, and the degree to which populists have become entrenched as the new ruling parties, allowing us to test predictions that flow from the ideational theory. Although these four cases all have parties that provide populist options for voters, the level of success of these parties varies widely. The divergence of the correlations from the significant ones that emerge in Chile, Greece, and Spain is surprising given that the rhetoric employed by Morales and the Movement for Socialism approximates the populist ideal.