Nature Bats Last

Assessing natural hazards is very different. A natural hazard, like that of earthquakes, or the probability of an event like an earthquake, is not something scientists can measure or know precisely. In mitigating natural hazards, researchers try to infer something useful about what may happen in the future, and then use these inferences to help communities prepare. The approaches used can be grouped in three general categories: long‐term forecasts, short‐term predictions, and real time warnings. How well forecasts, predictions, or warnings work depends on how well the underlying processes are understood, how easy it is to observe them, and the time scales involved. The chapter presents schematic comparison of some forecast and warning methods.