A General Method for Comparing Probability Assessors

A probability assessor or forecaster is a person who assigns subjective probabilities to events which will eventually occur or not occur. There are two purposes for which one might wish to compare two forecasters. The first is to see who has given better forecasts in the past. The second is to decid...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:	The Annals of statistics 1989-12, Vol.17 (4), p.1856-1879
1. Verfasser:	Schervish, Mark J.
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	62B15 62C10 Average linear density Calibration dominance Exact sciences and technology forecasters loss functions Mathematical theorems Mathematics Meteorology Probabilities Probability and statistics Probability forecasts refinement Sciences and techniques of general use scoring rules Statistical forecasts Statistical weather forecasting Statistics sufficiency Sufficiency and information Weather Weather forecasting
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