Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance
Recent, large fires in the western United States have rekindled debates about fire management and the role of natural fire regimes in the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. This real-world experience parallels debates involving abstract models of forest fires, a central metaphor in complex system...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2005-12, Vol.102 (50), p.17912-17917 |
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| container_issue | 50 |
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| container_title | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS |
| container_volume | 102 |
| creator | Moritz, M.A Morais, M.E Summerell, L.A Carlson, J.M Doyle, J |
| description | Recent, large fires in the western United States have rekindled debates about fire management and the role of natural fire regimes in the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. This real-world experience parallels debates involving abstract models of forest fires, a central metaphor in complex systems theory. Both real and modeled fire-prone landscapes exhibit roughly power law statistics in fire size versus frequency. Here, we examine historical fire catalogs and a detailed fire simulation model; both are in agreement with a highly optimized tolerance model. Highly optimized tolerance suggests robustness tradeoffs underlie resilience in different fire-prone ecosystems. Understanding these mechanisms may provide new insights into the structure of ecological systems and be key in evaluating fire management strategies and sensitivities to climate change. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1073/pnas.0508985102 |
| format | Article |
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| subjects | Climate change Computer Simulation Ecosystem Ecosystem models Ecosystems environmental models Environmental science Fire behavior Fire ecology Fire regimes fire-prone ecosystems Fires Forest & brush fires forest ecosystems Forest fires Hfire model highly optimized tolerance model HOT model mathematical models Modeling Models, Theoretical Physical Sciences plant ecology Plants Power laws probability loss resource model simulation models Wildfires wildland fire management |
| title | Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance |
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