Long-term health consequences and costs of changes in alcohol consumption in England during the COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in alcohol consumption in England. Evidence suggests that one-fifth to one-third of adults increased their alcohol consumption, while a similar proportion reported consuming less. Heavier drinkers increased their consumption the most and there was a 20% increase...
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| description | The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in alcohol consumption in England. Evidence suggests that one-fifth to one-third of adults increased their alcohol consumption, while a similar proportion reported consuming less. Heavier drinkers increased their consumption the most and there was a 20% increase in alcohol-specific deaths in England in 2020 compared with 2019, a trend continuing through 2021 and 2022. This study aimed to quantify future health, healthcare, and economic impacts of changes in alcohol consumption observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This study used a validated microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and health outcomes. Inputted data were obtained from the Alcohol Toolkit Study, and demographic, health and cost data from published literature and publicly available datasets. Three scenarios were modelled: short, medium, and long-term, where 2020 drinking patterns continue until the end of 2022, 2024, and 2035, respectively. Disease incidence, mortality, and healthcare costs were modelled for nine alcohol-related health conditions. The model was run from 2020 to 2035 for the population of England and different occupational social grade groups.
In all scenarios, the microsimulation projected significant increases in incident cases of disease, premature mortality, and healthcare costs, compared with the continuation of pre-COVID-19 trends. If COVID-19 drinking patterns continue to 2035, we projected 147,892 excess cases of diseases, 9,914 additional premature deaths, and £1.2 billion in excess healthcare costs in England. The projections show that the more disadvantaged (C2DE) occupational social grade groups will experience 36% more excess premature mortality than the least disadvantaged social group (ABC1) under the long-term scenario.
Alcohol harm is projected to worsen as an indirect result of the COVID-19 pandemic and inequalities are projected to widen. Early real-world data corroborate the findings of the modelling study. Increased rates of alcohol harm and healthcare costs are not inevitable but evidence-based policies and interventions are required to reverse the impacts of the pandemic on alcohol consumption in England. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0314870 |
| format | Article |
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This study used a validated microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and health outcomes. Inputted data were obtained from the Alcohol Toolkit Study, and demographic, health and cost data from published literature and publicly available datasets. Three scenarios were modelled: short, medium, and long-term, where 2020 drinking patterns continue until the end of 2022, 2024, and 2035, respectively. Disease incidence, mortality, and healthcare costs were modelled for nine alcohol-related health conditions. The model was run from 2020 to 2035 for the population of England and different occupational social grade groups.
In all scenarios, the microsimulation projected significant increases in incident cases of disease, premature mortality, and healthcare costs, compared with the continuation of pre-COVID-19 trends. If COVID-19 drinking patterns continue to 2035, we projected 147,892 excess cases of diseases, 9,914 additional premature deaths, and £1.2 billion in excess healthcare costs in England. The projections show that the more disadvantaged (C2DE) occupational social grade groups will experience 36% more excess premature mortality than the least disadvantaged social group (ABC1) under the long-term scenario.
Alcohol harm is projected to worsen as an indirect result of the COVID-19 pandemic and inequalities are projected to widen. Early real-world data corroborate the findings of the modelling study. Increased rates of alcohol harm and healthcare costs are not inevitable but evidence-based policies and interventions are required to reverse the impacts of the pandemic on alcohol consumption in England.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0314870</identifier><identifier>PMID: 39820181</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Adult ; Age ; Aged ; Alcohol ; Alcohol Drinking - economics ; Alcohol Drinking - epidemiology ; Alcohol use ; Alcohols ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Cancer ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 - economics ; COVID-19 - epidemiology ; Disease ; Drinking ; Drinking behavior ; Drinking of alcoholic beverages ; Economic impact ; England - epidemiology ; Epidemics ; Epidemiology ; Fatalities ; Female ; Females ; Health aspects ; Health care ; Health Care Costs - statistics & numerical data ; Health care expenditures ; Humans ; Male ; Males ; Medical care, Cost of ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; Pandemics ; People and places ; Psychological aspects ; Risk factors ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Statistics ; Trends ; United Kingdom</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2025-01, Vol.20 (1), p.e0314870</ispartof><rights>Copyright: © 2025 Card-Gowers et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2025 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2025 Card-Gowers et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2025 Card-Gowers et al 2025 Card-Gowers et al</rights><rights>2025 Card-Gowers et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4416-a80a5cba098e6234b640aa175b06239518fcde7bfcc7bd4d352636ffef9c32883</cites><orcidid>0009-0001-4863-3961 ; 0000-0002-9928-8862 ; 0000-0002-2797-5428</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11737736/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11737736/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,860,881,2096,2915,23845,27901,27902,53766,53768,79342,79343</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39820181$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Card-Gowers, Joshua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boniface, Sadie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Brown, Jamie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kock, Loren</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Martin, Alexander</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Retat, Lise</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Webber, Laura</creatorcontrib><title>Long-term health consequences and costs of changes in alcohol consumption in England during the COVID-19 pandemic</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in alcohol consumption in England. Evidence suggests that one-fifth to one-third of adults increased their alcohol consumption, while a similar proportion reported consuming less. Heavier drinkers increased their consumption the most and there was a 20% increase in alcohol-specific deaths in England in 2020 compared with 2019, a trend continuing through 2021 and 2022. This study aimed to quantify future health, healthcare, and economic impacts of changes in alcohol consumption observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This study used a validated microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and health outcomes. Inputted data were obtained from the Alcohol Toolkit Study, and demographic, health and cost data from published literature and publicly available datasets. Three scenarios were modelled: short, medium, and long-term, where 2020 drinking patterns continue until the end of 2022, 2024, and 2035, respectively. Disease incidence, mortality, and healthcare costs were modelled for nine alcohol-related health conditions. The model was run from 2020 to 2035 for the population of England and different occupational social grade groups.
In all scenarios, the microsimulation projected significant increases in incident cases of disease, premature mortality, and healthcare costs, compared with the continuation of pre-COVID-19 trends. If COVID-19 drinking patterns continue to 2035, we projected 147,892 excess cases of diseases, 9,914 additional premature deaths, and £1.2 billion in excess healthcare costs in England. The projections show that the more disadvantaged (C2DE) occupational social grade groups will experience 36% more excess premature mortality than the least disadvantaged social group (ABC1) under the long-term scenario.
Alcohol harm is projected to worsen as an indirect result of the COVID-19 pandemic and inequalities are projected to widen. Early real-world data corroborate the findings of the modelling study. Increased rates of alcohol harm and healthcare costs are not inevitable but evidence-based policies and interventions are required to reverse the impacts of the pandemic on alcohol consumption in England.</description><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Alcohol</subject><subject>Alcohol Drinking - economics</subject><subject>Alcohol Drinking - epidemiology</subject><subject>Alcohol use</subject><subject>Alcohols</subject><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Cancer</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>COVID-19 - economics</subject><subject>COVID-19 - epidemiology</subject><subject>Disease</subject><subject>Drinking</subject><subject>Drinking behavior</subject><subject>Drinking of alcoholic beverages</subject><subject>Economic impact</subject><subject>England - epidemiology</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Fatalities</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Females</subject><subject>Health aspects</subject><subject>Health care</subject><subject>Health Care Costs - 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Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Card-Gowers, Joshua</au><au>Boniface, Sadie</au><au>Brown, Jamie</au><au>Kock, Loren</au><au>Martin, Alexander</au><au>Retat, Lise</au><au>Webber, Laura</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Long-term health consequences and costs of changes in alcohol consumption in England during the COVID-19 pandemic</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2025-01-16</date><risdate>2025</risdate><volume>20</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>e0314870</spage><pages>e0314870-</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in alcohol consumption in England. Evidence suggests that one-fifth to one-third of adults increased their alcohol consumption, while a similar proportion reported consuming less. Heavier drinkers increased their consumption the most and there was a 20% increase in alcohol-specific deaths in England in 2020 compared with 2019, a trend continuing through 2021 and 2022. This study aimed to quantify future health, healthcare, and economic impacts of changes in alcohol consumption observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This study used a validated microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and health outcomes. Inputted data were obtained from the Alcohol Toolkit Study, and demographic, health and cost data from published literature and publicly available datasets. Three scenarios were modelled: short, medium, and long-term, where 2020 drinking patterns continue until the end of 2022, 2024, and 2035, respectively. Disease incidence, mortality, and healthcare costs were modelled for nine alcohol-related health conditions. The model was run from 2020 to 2035 for the population of England and different occupational social grade groups.
In all scenarios, the microsimulation projected significant increases in incident cases of disease, premature mortality, and healthcare costs, compared with the continuation of pre-COVID-19 trends. If COVID-19 drinking patterns continue to 2035, we projected 147,892 excess cases of diseases, 9,914 additional premature deaths, and £1.2 billion in excess healthcare costs in England. The projections show that the more disadvantaged (C2DE) occupational social grade groups will experience 36% more excess premature mortality than the least disadvantaged social group (ABC1) under the long-term scenario.
Alcohol harm is projected to worsen as an indirect result of the COVID-19 pandemic and inequalities are projected to widen. Early real-world data corroborate the findings of the modelling study. Increased rates of alcohol harm and healthcare costs are not inevitable but evidence-based policies and interventions are required to reverse the impacts of the pandemic on alcohol consumption in England.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>39820181</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0314870</doi><tpages>e0314870</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0009-0001-4863-3961</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9928-8862</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2797-5428</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| identifier | ISSN: 1932-6203 |
| ispartof | PloS one, 2025-01, Vol.20 (1), p.e0314870 |
| issn | 1932-6203 1932-6203 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_plos_journals_3156421431 |
| source | Public Library of Science (PLoS) Journals Open Access; MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; PubMed Central; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry |
| subjects | Adult Age Aged Alcohol Alcohol Drinking - economics Alcohol Drinking - epidemiology Alcohol use Alcohols Biology and Life Sciences Cancer Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 - economics COVID-19 - epidemiology Disease Drinking Drinking behavior Drinking of alcoholic beverages Economic impact England - epidemiology Epidemics Epidemiology Fatalities Female Females Health aspects Health care Health Care Costs - statistics & numerical data Health care expenditures Humans Male Males Medical care, Cost of Medicine and Health Sciences Middle Aged Mortality Pandemics People and places Psychological aspects Risk factors SARS-CoV-2 Statistics Trends United Kingdom |
| title | Long-term health consequences and costs of changes in alcohol consumption in England during the COVID-19 pandemic |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-02-07T06%3A33%3A11IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-gale_plos_&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Long-term%20health%20consequences%20and%20costs%20of%20changes%20in%20alcohol%20consumption%20in%20England%20during%20the%20COVID-19%20pandemic&rft.jtitle=PloS%20one&rft.au=Card-Gowers,%20Joshua&rft.date=2025-01-16&rft.volume=20&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=e0314870&rft.pages=e0314870-&rft.issn=1932-6203&rft.eissn=1932-6203&rft_id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0314870&rft_dat=%3Cgale_plos_%3EA823804696%3C/gale_plos_%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=3156421431&rft_id=info:pmid/39820181&rft_galeid=A823804696&rft_doaj_id=oai_doaj_org_article_a84cbc8a3ee74f50a987289e76ce6acc&rfr_iscdi=true |