A mathematical model of visceral leishmaniasis transmission and control: Impact of ITNs on VL prevention and elimination in the Indian subcontinent
Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly, vector-borne, parasitic, neglected tropical disease, particularly prevalent on the Indian subcontinent. Sleeping under the long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) was considered an effective VL prevention and control measures, until KalaNet, a large tria...
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| description | Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly, vector-borne, parasitic, neglected tropical disease, particularly prevalent on the Indian subcontinent. Sleeping under the long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) was considered an effective VL prevention and control measures, until KalaNet, a large trial in Nepal and India, did not show enough supporting evidence. In this paper, we adapt a biologically accurate, yet relatively simple compartmental ordinary differential equations (ODE) model of VL transmission and explicitly model the use of ITNs and their role in VL prevention and elimination. We also include a game-theoretic analysis in order to determine an optimal use of ITNs from the individuals' perspective. In agreement with the previous more detailed and complex model, we show that the ITNs coverage amongst the susceptible population has to be unrealistically high (over 96%) in order for VL to be eliminated. However, we also show that if the whole population, including symptomatic and asymptomatic VL cases adopt about 90% ITN usage, then VL can be eliminated. Our model also suggests that ITN usage should be accompanied with other interventions such as vector control. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0311314 |
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Sleeping under the long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) was considered an effective VL prevention and control measures, until KalaNet, a large trial in Nepal and India, did not show enough supporting evidence. In this paper, we adapt a biologically accurate, yet relatively simple compartmental ordinary differential equations (ODE) model of VL transmission and explicitly model the use of ITNs and their role in VL prevention and elimination. We also include a game-theoretic analysis in order to determine an optimal use of ITNs from the individuals' perspective. In agreement with the previous more detailed and complex model, we show that the ITNs coverage amongst the susceptible population has to be unrealistically high (over 96%) in order for VL to be eliminated. However, we also show that if the whole population, including symptomatic and asymptomatic VL cases adopt about 90% ITN usage, then VL can be eliminated. Our model also suggests that ITN usage should be accompanied with other interventions such as vector control.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311314</identifier><identifier>PMID: 39365771</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Animals ; Asymptomatic ; Control ; Costs ; Differential equations ; Disease prevention ; Disease transmission ; Distribution ; Game theory ; Humans ; India - epidemiology ; Infections ; Insecticide-Treated Bednets - statistics & numerical data ; Insecticides ; Kala-azar ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral - epidemiology ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral - prevention & control ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral - transmission ; Mathematical models ; Models, Theoretical ; Mortality ; Nepal - epidemiology ; Parasites ; Parasitic diseases ; Prevention ; Tropical diseases ; Vector-borne diseases ; Visceral leishmaniasis</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2024-10, Vol.19 (10), p.e0311314</ispartof><rights>Copyright: © 2024 Davis et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2024 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2024 Davis et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2024 Davis et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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Sleeping under the long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) was considered an effective VL prevention and control measures, until KalaNet, a large trial in Nepal and India, did not show enough supporting evidence. In this paper, we adapt a biologically accurate, yet relatively simple compartmental ordinary differential equations (ODE) model of VL transmission and explicitly model the use of ITNs and their role in VL prevention and elimination. We also include a game-theoretic analysis in order to determine an optimal use of ITNs from the individuals' perspective. In agreement with the previous more detailed and complex model, we show that the ITNs coverage amongst the susceptible population has to be unrealistically high (over 96%) in order for VL to be eliminated. However, we also show that if the whole population, including symptomatic and asymptomatic VL cases adopt about 90% ITN usage, then VL can be eliminated. 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Academic</collection><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Davis, Cameron</au><au>Javor, Elizabeth R</au><au>Rebarber, Sonja I</au><au>Rychtář, Jan</au><au>Taylor, Dewey</au><au>Hosseini Farash, Bibi Razieh</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>A mathematical model of visceral leishmaniasis transmission and control: Impact of ITNs on VL prevention and elimination in the Indian subcontinent</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2024-10-04</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>19</volume><issue>10</issue><spage>e0311314</spage><pages>e0311314-</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly, vector-borne, parasitic, neglected tropical disease, particularly prevalent on the Indian subcontinent. Sleeping under the long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) was considered an effective VL prevention and control measures, until KalaNet, a large trial in Nepal and India, did not show enough supporting evidence. In this paper, we adapt a biologically accurate, yet relatively simple compartmental ordinary differential equations (ODE) model of VL transmission and explicitly model the use of ITNs and their role in VL prevention and elimination. We also include a game-theoretic analysis in order to determine an optimal use of ITNs from the individuals' perspective. In agreement with the previous more detailed and complex model, we show that the ITNs coverage amongst the susceptible population has to be unrealistically high (over 96%) in order for VL to be eliminated. However, we also show that if the whole population, including symptomatic and asymptomatic VL cases adopt about 90% ITN usage, then VL can be eliminated. Our model also suggests that ITN usage should be accompanied with other interventions such as vector control.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>39365771</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0311314</doi><tpages>e0311314</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6600-2939</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9579-4522</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Animals Asymptomatic Control Costs Differential equations Disease prevention Disease transmission Distribution Game theory Humans India - epidemiology Infections Insecticide-Treated Bednets - statistics & numerical data Insecticides Kala-azar Leishmaniasis, Visceral - epidemiology Leishmaniasis, Visceral - prevention & control Leishmaniasis, Visceral - transmission Mathematical models Models, Theoretical Mortality Nepal - epidemiology Parasites Parasitic diseases Prevention Tropical diseases Vector-borne diseases Visceral leishmaniasis |
| title | A mathematical model of visceral leishmaniasis transmission and control: Impact of ITNs on VL prevention and elimination in the Indian subcontinent |
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