Can expected error costs justify testing a hypothesis at multiple alpha levels rather than searching for an elusive optimal alpha?
Simultaneous testing of one hypothesis at multiple alpha levels can be performed within a conventional Neyman-Pearson framework. This is achieved by treating the hypothesis as a family of hypotheses, each member of which explicitly concerns test level as well as effect size. Such testing encourages...
Gespeichert in:
Veröffentlicht in: | PloS one 2024-09, Vol.19 (9), p.e0304675 |
---|---|
1. Verfasser: | |
Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
container_end_page | |
---|---|
container_issue | 9 |
container_start_page | e0304675 |
container_title | PloS one |
container_volume | 19 |
creator | Aisbett, Janet |
description | Simultaneous testing of one hypothesis at multiple alpha levels can be performed within a conventional Neyman-Pearson framework. This is achieved by treating the hypothesis as a family of hypotheses, each member of which explicitly concerns test level as well as effect size. Such testing encourages researchers to think about error rates and strength of evidence in both the statistical design and reporting stages of a study. Here, we show that these multi-alpha level tests can deliver acceptable expected total error costs. We first present formulas for expected error costs from single alpha and multiple alpha level tests, given prior probabilities of effect sizes that have either dichotomous or continuous distributions. Error costs are tied to decisions, with different decisions assumed for each of the potential outcomes in the multi-alpha level case. Expected total costs for tests at single and multiple alpha levels are then compared with optimal costs. This comparison highlights how sensitive optimization is to estimated error costs and to assumptions about prevalence. Testing at multiple default thresholds removes the need to formally identify decisions, or to model costs and prevalence as required in optimization approaches. Although total expected error costs with this approach will not be optimal, our results suggest they may be lower, on average, than when "optimal" test levels are based on mis-specified models. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0304675 |
format | Article |
fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>gale_plos_</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_plos_journals_3109723661</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><galeid>A810014623</galeid><sourcerecordid>A810014623</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c506t-774abb1487118350a120c60df7c16bdf2b1fdf4fedf53c94b6bcd0ff222fc19d3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqNkl1r2zAUhs3YWLtu_2BsgsHYLpLpw5bjq1JCtxUKhX3dClk-ihVky5Xk0Nzul1chbklGL4YujpCe9z3i6M2ytwTPCSvJl7UbfS_tfHA9zDHDOS-LZ9kpqRidcYrZ84P9SfYqhDXGBVtw_jI7YemCkJKeZn-XskdwN4CK0CDw3nmkXIgBrccQjd6iCKn2KyRRux1cbCGYgGRE3WijGSwgaYdWIgsbsAF5mQiPYptsA0iv2p1WJ9ddHzsGswHkhmg6affK89fZCy1tgDdTPct-f738tfw-u775drW8uJ6pAvM4K8tc1jXJFyUhC1ZgSShWHDe6VITXjaY10Y3ONTS6YKrKa16rBmtNKdWKVA07y97vfQfrgpjGFwQjuCop45wk4nwixrqDRkEfvbRi8Om1fiucNOL4pjetWLmNICSnOcZlcvg0OXh3O6bJic4EBdbKHty4b1aVLP1fQj_8gz79pIlaSQvC9NqlxmpnKi4WBGOSc8oSNX-CSquBzqgUEG3S-ZHg85EgMRHu4kqOIYirnz_-n735c8x-PGBbkDa2wdkxGteHYzDfg8q7EDzoxykTLHb5fpiG2OVbTPlOsneHP_Qoegg0uwf3Bffi</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Open Website</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>3109723661</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Can expected error costs justify testing a hypothesis at multiple alpha levels rather than searching for an elusive optimal alpha?</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</source><source>Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals</source><source>Public Library of Science (PLoS)</source><source>PubMed Central</source><source>Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry</source><creator>Aisbett, Janet</creator><contributor>Leitner, Stephan</contributor><creatorcontrib>Aisbett, Janet ; Leitner, Stephan</creatorcontrib><description>Simultaneous testing of one hypothesis at multiple alpha levels can be performed within a conventional Neyman-Pearson framework. This is achieved by treating the hypothesis as a family of hypotheses, each member of which explicitly concerns test level as well as effect size. Such testing encourages researchers to think about error rates and strength of evidence in both the statistical design and reporting stages of a study. Here, we show that these multi-alpha level tests can deliver acceptable expected total error costs. We first present formulas for expected error costs from single alpha and multiple alpha level tests, given prior probabilities of effect sizes that have either dichotomous or continuous distributions. Error costs are tied to decisions, with different decisions assumed for each of the potential outcomes in the multi-alpha level case. Expected total costs for tests at single and multiple alpha levels are then compared with optimal costs. This comparison highlights how sensitive optimization is to estimated error costs and to assumptions about prevalence. Testing at multiple default thresholds removes the need to formally identify decisions, or to model costs and prevalence as required in optimization approaches. Although total expected error costs with this approach will not be optimal, our results suggest they may be lower, on average, than when "optimal" test levels are based on mis-specified models.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0304675</identifier><identifier>PMID: 39321172</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Biology and Life Sciences ; Cost accounting ; Costs ; Decisions ; Error analysis ; Error analysis (Mathematics) ; Humans ; Hypotheses ; Hypothesis ; Hypothesis testing ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Methods ; Models, Statistical ; Optimization ; Overweight ; Physical Sciences ; Probability ; Process costing ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Research Design ; Sensitivity analysis ; Statistical analysis</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2024-09, Vol.19 (9), p.e0304675</ispartof><rights>Copyright: © 2024 Janet Aisbett. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2024 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2024 Janet Aisbett. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2024 Janet Aisbett 2024 Janet Aisbett</rights><rights>2024 Janet Aisbett. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c506t-774abb1487118350a120c60df7c16bdf2b1fdf4fedf53c94b6bcd0ff222fc19d3</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-5960-3330</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11424007/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11424007/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,315,728,781,785,865,886,2929,23868,27926,27927,53793,53795</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39321172$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Leitner, Stephan</contributor><creatorcontrib>Aisbett, Janet</creatorcontrib><title>Can expected error costs justify testing a hypothesis at multiple alpha levels rather than searching for an elusive optimal alpha?</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>Simultaneous testing of one hypothesis at multiple alpha levels can be performed within a conventional Neyman-Pearson framework. This is achieved by treating the hypothesis as a family of hypotheses, each member of which explicitly concerns test level as well as effect size. Such testing encourages researchers to think about error rates and strength of evidence in both the statistical design and reporting stages of a study. Here, we show that these multi-alpha level tests can deliver acceptable expected total error costs. We first present formulas for expected error costs from single alpha and multiple alpha level tests, given prior probabilities of effect sizes that have either dichotomous or continuous distributions. Error costs are tied to decisions, with different decisions assumed for each of the potential outcomes in the multi-alpha level case. Expected total costs for tests at single and multiple alpha levels are then compared with optimal costs. This comparison highlights how sensitive optimization is to estimated error costs and to assumptions about prevalence. Testing at multiple default thresholds removes the need to formally identify decisions, or to model costs and prevalence as required in optimization approaches. Although total expected error costs with this approach will not be optimal, our results suggest they may be lower, on average, than when "optimal" test levels are based on mis-specified models.</description><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Cost accounting</subject><subject>Costs</subject><subject>Decisions</subject><subject>Error analysis</subject><subject>Error analysis (Mathematics)</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Hypotheses</subject><subject>Hypothesis</subject><subject>Hypothesis testing</subject><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subject>Methods</subject><subject>Models, Statistical</subject><subject>Optimization</subject><subject>Overweight</subject><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Probability</subject><subject>Process costing</subject><subject>Research and Analysis Methods</subject><subject>Research Design</subject><subject>Sensitivity analysis</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><issn>1932-6203</issn><issn>1932-6203</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2024</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkl1r2zAUhs3YWLtu_2BsgsHYLpLpw5bjq1JCtxUKhX3dClk-ihVky5Xk0Nzul1chbklGL4YujpCe9z3i6M2ytwTPCSvJl7UbfS_tfHA9zDHDOS-LZ9kpqRidcYrZ84P9SfYqhDXGBVtw_jI7YemCkJKeZn-XskdwN4CK0CDw3nmkXIgBrccQjd6iCKn2KyRRux1cbCGYgGRE3WijGSwgaYdWIgsbsAF5mQiPYptsA0iv2p1WJ9ddHzsGswHkhmg6affK89fZCy1tgDdTPct-f738tfw-u775drW8uJ6pAvM4K8tc1jXJFyUhC1ZgSShWHDe6VITXjaY10Y3ONTS6YKrKa16rBmtNKdWKVA07y97vfQfrgpjGFwQjuCop45wk4nwixrqDRkEfvbRi8Om1fiucNOL4pjetWLmNICSnOcZlcvg0OXh3O6bJic4EBdbKHty4b1aVLP1fQj_8gz79pIlaSQvC9NqlxmpnKi4WBGOSc8oSNX-CSquBzqgUEG3S-ZHg85EgMRHu4kqOIYirnz_-n735c8x-PGBbkDa2wdkxGteHYzDfg8q7EDzoxykTLHb5fpiG2OVbTPlOsneHP_Qoegg0uwf3Bffi</recordid><startdate>20240925</startdate><enddate>20240925</enddate><creator>Aisbett, Janet</creator><general>Public Library of Science</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>IOV</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QG</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7QO</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TM</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>COVID</scope><scope>D1I</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PDBOC</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5960-3330</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20240925</creationdate><title>Can expected error costs justify testing a hypothesis at multiple alpha levels rather than searching for an elusive optimal alpha?</title><author>Aisbett, Janet</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c506t-774abb1487118350a120c60df7c16bdf2b1fdf4fedf53c94b6bcd0ff222fc19d3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2024</creationdate><topic>Biology and Life Sciences</topic><topic>Cost accounting</topic><topic>Costs</topic><topic>Decisions</topic><topic>Error analysis</topic><topic>Error analysis (Mathematics)</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Hypotheses</topic><topic>Hypothesis</topic><topic>Hypothesis testing</topic><topic>Medicine and Health Sciences</topic><topic>Methods</topic><topic>Models, Statistical</topic><topic>Optimization</topic><topic>Overweight</topic><topic>Physical Sciences</topic><topic>Probability</topic><topic>Process costing</topic><topic>Research and Analysis Methods</topic><topic>Research Design</topic><topic>Sensitivity analysis</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Aisbett, Janet</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Opposing Viewpoints</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Science</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Animal Behavior Abstracts</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Biotechnology Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Nucleic Acids Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>Coronavirus Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Materials Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Materials Science Database</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Database</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Materials Science Collection</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Aisbett, Janet</au><au>Leitner, Stephan</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Can expected error costs justify testing a hypothesis at multiple alpha levels rather than searching for an elusive optimal alpha?</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2024-09-25</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>19</volume><issue>9</issue><spage>e0304675</spage><pages>e0304675-</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Simultaneous testing of one hypothesis at multiple alpha levels can be performed within a conventional Neyman-Pearson framework. This is achieved by treating the hypothesis as a family of hypotheses, each member of which explicitly concerns test level as well as effect size. Such testing encourages researchers to think about error rates and strength of evidence in both the statistical design and reporting stages of a study. Here, we show that these multi-alpha level tests can deliver acceptable expected total error costs. We first present formulas for expected error costs from single alpha and multiple alpha level tests, given prior probabilities of effect sizes that have either dichotomous or continuous distributions. Error costs are tied to decisions, with different decisions assumed for each of the potential outcomes in the multi-alpha level case. Expected total costs for tests at single and multiple alpha levels are then compared with optimal costs. This comparison highlights how sensitive optimization is to estimated error costs and to assumptions about prevalence. Testing at multiple default thresholds removes the need to formally identify decisions, or to model costs and prevalence as required in optimization approaches. Although total expected error costs with this approach will not be optimal, our results suggest they may be lower, on average, than when "optimal" test levels are based on mis-specified models.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>39321172</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0304675</doi><tpages>e0304675</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5960-3330</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
fulltext | fulltext |
identifier | ISSN: 1932-6203 |
ispartof | PloS one, 2024-09, Vol.19 (9), p.e0304675 |
issn | 1932-6203 1932-6203 |
language | eng |
recordid | cdi_plos_journals_3109723661 |
source | MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; Public Library of Science (PLoS); PubMed Central; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry |
subjects | Biology and Life Sciences Cost accounting Costs Decisions Error analysis Error analysis (Mathematics) Humans Hypotheses Hypothesis Hypothesis testing Medicine and Health Sciences Methods Models, Statistical Optimization Overweight Physical Sciences Probability Process costing Research and Analysis Methods Research Design Sensitivity analysis Statistical analysis |
title | Can expected error costs justify testing a hypothesis at multiple alpha levels rather than searching for an elusive optimal alpha? |
url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-18T05%3A00%3A17IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-gale_plos_&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Can%20expected%20error%20costs%20justify%20testing%20a%20hypothesis%20at%20multiple%20alpha%20levels%20rather%20than%20searching%20for%20an%20elusive%20optimal%20alpha?&rft.jtitle=PloS%20one&rft.au=Aisbett,%20Janet&rft.date=2024-09-25&rft.volume=19&rft.issue=9&rft.spage=e0304675&rft.pages=e0304675-&rft.issn=1932-6203&rft.eissn=1932-6203&rft_id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0304675&rft_dat=%3Cgale_plos_%3EA810014623%3C/gale_plos_%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=3109723661&rft_id=info:pmid/39321172&rft_galeid=A810014623&rfr_iscdi=true |