Prediction of future visceral adiposity and application to cancer research: The Multiethnic Cohort Study

We previously developed a prediction score for MRI-quantified abdominal visceral adipose tissue (VAT) based on concurrent measurements of height, body mass index (BMI), and nine blood biomarkers, for optimal performance in five racial/ethnic groups. Here we evaluated the VAT score for prediction of future VAT and examined if enhancement with additional biomarkers, lifestyle behavior information, and medical history improves the prediction. We examined 500 participants from the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) with detailed data (age 50-66) collected 10 years prior to their MRI assessment of VAT. We generated three forecasted VAT prediction models: first by applying the original VAT equation to the past data on the predictors ("original"), second by refitting the past data on anthropometry and biomarkers ("refit"), and third by building a new prediction model based on the past data enhanced with lifestyle and medical history ("enhanced"). We compared the forecasted prediction scores to future VAT using the coefficient of determination (R2). In independent nested case-control data in MEC, we applied the concurrent and forecasted VAT models to assess association of the scores with subsequent incident breast cancer (950 pairs) and colorectal cancer (831 pairs). Compared to the VAT prediction by the concurrent VAT score (R2 = 0.70 in men, 0.68 in women), the forecasted original VAT score (R2 = 0.54, 0.48) performed better than past anthropometry alone (R2 = 0.47, 0.40) or two published scores (VAI, METS-VF). The forecasted refit (R2 = 0.61, 0.51) and enhanced (R2 = 0.62, 0.55) VAT scores each showed slight improvements. Similar to the concurrent VAT score, the forecasted VAT scores were associated with breast cancer, but not colorectal cancer. Both the refit score (adjusted OR for tertile 3 vs. 1 = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.00-1.62) and enhanced score (1.27; 0.99-1.62) were associated with breast cancer independently of BMI. Predicted VAT from midlife data can be used as a surrogate to assess the effect of VAT on incident diseases associated with obesity, as illustrated for postmenopausal breast cancer.