The impact of estimation methods for alcohol-attributable mortality on long-term trends for the general population and by educational level in Finland and Italy (Turin)

This paper assesses the impact of estimation methods for general and education-specific trends in alcohol-attributable mortality (AAM), and develops an alternative method that can be used when the data available for study is limited. We calculated yearly adult (30+) age-standardised and age-specific...

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Veröffentlicht in:PloS one 2023-12, Vol.18 (12), p.e0295760-e0295760
Hauptverfasser: Van Hemelrijck, Wanda Monika Johanna, Martikainen, Pekka, Zengarini, Nicolás, Costa, Giuseppe, Janssen, Fanny
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creator Van Hemelrijck, Wanda Monika Johanna
Martikainen, Pekka
Zengarini, Nicolás
Costa, Giuseppe
Janssen, Fanny
description This paper assesses the impact of estimation methods for general and education-specific trends in alcohol-attributable mortality (AAM), and develops an alternative method that can be used when the data available for study is limited. We calculated yearly adult (30+) age-standardised and age-specific AAM rates by sex for the general population and by educational level (low, middle, high) in Finland and Turin (Italy) from 1972 to 2017. Furthermore the slope index of inequality and relative inequality index were computed by country and sex. We compared trends, levels, age distributions, and educational inequalities in AAM according to three existing estimation methods: (1) Underlying COD (UCOD), (2) Multiple COD (MCOD) method, and (3) the population attributable fractions (PAF)-method. An alternative method is developed based on the pros and cons of these methods and the outcomes of the comparison. The UCOD and MCOD approaches revealed mainly increasing trends in AAM compared to the declining trends according to the PAF approach. These differences are more pronounced when examining AAM trends by educational groups, particularly for Finnish men. Until age 65, age patterns are similar for all methods, and levels nearly identical for MCOD and PAF in Finland. Our novel method assumes a similar trend and age pattern as observed in UCOD, but adjusts its level upwards so that it matches the level of the PAF approach for ages 30-64. Our new method yields levels in-between UCOD and PAF for Turin (Italy), and resembles the MCOD rates in Finland for females. Relative inequalities deviate for the PAF-method (lower levels) compared to other methods, whereas absolute inequalities are generally lower for UCOD than all three methods that combine wholly and partly AAM. The choice of method to estimate AAM affects not only levels, but also general and education-specific trends and inequalities. Our newly developed method constitutes a better alternative for multiple-country studies by educational level than the currently used UCOD-method when the data available for study is limited to underlying causes of death.
doi_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pone.0295760
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We calculated yearly adult (30+) age-standardised and age-specific AAM rates by sex for the general population and by educational level (low, middle, high) in Finland and Turin (Italy) from 1972 to 2017. Furthermore the slope index of inequality and relative inequality index were computed by country and sex. We compared trends, levels, age distributions, and educational inequalities in AAM according to three existing estimation methods: (1) Underlying COD (UCOD), (2) Multiple COD (MCOD) method, and (3) the population attributable fractions (PAF)-method. An alternative method is developed based on the pros and cons of these methods and the outcomes of the comparison. The UCOD and MCOD approaches revealed mainly increasing trends in AAM compared to the declining trends according to the PAF approach. These differences are more pronounced when examining AAM trends by educational groups, particularly for Finnish men. Until age 65, age patterns are similar for all methods, and levels nearly identical for MCOD and PAF in Finland. Our novel method assumes a similar trend and age pattern as observed in UCOD, but adjusts its level upwards so that it matches the level of the PAF approach for ages 30-64. Our new method yields levels in-between UCOD and PAF for Turin (Italy), and resembles the MCOD rates in Finland for females. Relative inequalities deviate for the PAF-method (lower levels) compared to other methods, whereas absolute inequalities are generally lower for UCOD than all three methods that combine wholly and partly AAM. The choice of method to estimate AAM affects not only levels, but also general and education-specific trends and inequalities. 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We calculated yearly adult (30+) age-standardised and age-specific AAM rates by sex for the general population and by educational level (low, middle, high) in Finland and Turin (Italy) from 1972 to 2017. Furthermore the slope index of inequality and relative inequality index were computed by country and sex. We compared trends, levels, age distributions, and educational inequalities in AAM according to three existing estimation methods: (1) Underlying COD (UCOD), (2) Multiple COD (MCOD) method, and (3) the population attributable fractions (PAF)-method. An alternative method is developed based on the pros and cons of these methods and the outcomes of the comparison. The UCOD and MCOD approaches revealed mainly increasing trends in AAM compared to the declining trends according to the PAF approach. These differences are more pronounced when examining AAM trends by educational groups, particularly for Finnish men. Until age 65, age patterns are similar for all methods, and levels nearly identical for MCOD and PAF in Finland. Our novel method assumes a similar trend and age pattern as observed in UCOD, but adjusts its level upwards so that it matches the level of the PAF approach for ages 30-64. Our new method yields levels in-between UCOD and PAF for Turin (Italy), and resembles the MCOD rates in Finland for females. Relative inequalities deviate for the PAF-method (lower levels) compared to other methods, whereas absolute inequalities are generally lower for UCOD than all three methods that combine wholly and partly AAM. The choice of method to estimate AAM affects not only levels, but also general and education-specific trends and inequalities. Our newly developed method constitutes a better alternative for multiple-country studies by educational level than the currently used UCOD-method when the data available for study is limited to underlying causes of death.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>38096271</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0295760</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1017-0620</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Age
Age determination
Alcohol
Alcoholic beverages
Analysis
Biology and Life Sciences
Chronic diseases
Diagnosis
Eastern Europe
Education
Educational attainment
Evaluation
Finland
Health aspects
Inequalities
Italy
Medicine and Health Sciences
Methods
Mortality
People and places
Research and Analysis Methods
Risk factors
Sex
Social Sciences
Trends
title The impact of estimation methods for alcohol-attributable mortality on long-term trends for the general population and by educational level in Finland and Italy (Turin)
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