Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study
Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of susceptibility and infectivity by person-type. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is usually the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of patho...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PLoS computational biology 2024-01, Vol.20 (1), p.e1011832-e1011832 |
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| creator | van Boven, Michiel van Dorp, Christiaan H Westerhof, Ilse Jaddoe, Vincent Heuvelman, Valerie Duijts, Liesbeth Fourie, Elandri Sluiter-Post, Judith van Houten, Marlies A Badoux, Paul Euser, Sjoerd Herpers, Bjorn Eggink, Dirk de Hoog, Marieke Boom, Trisja Wildenbeest, Joanne Bont, Louis Rozhnova, Ganna Bonten, Marc J Kretzschmar, Mirjam E Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia |
| description | Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of susceptibility and infectivity by person-type. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is usually the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we estimate age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates using data from a prospective household-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 307 households containing 1,209 persons were included from August 2020 until March 2021. Follow-up of households took place between August 2020 and August 2021 with maximal follow-up per household mostly limited to 161 days. Almost 1 out of 5 households (59/307) had evidence of an introduction of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates in our study population with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. Best fitting transmission models included increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses indicate that vaccination of adults can strongly reduce household infection attack rates and that adding adolescent vaccination offers limited added benefit. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011832 |
| format | Article |
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A main inclusion criterion in such studies is usually the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we estimate age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates using data from a prospective household-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 307 households containing 1,209 persons were included from August 2020 until March 2021. Follow-up of households took place between August 2020 and August 2021 with maximal follow-up per household mostly limited to 161 days. Almost 1 out of 5 households (59/307) had evidence of an introduction of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates in our study population with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. Best fitting transmission models included increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses indicate that vaccination of adults can strongly reduce household infection attack rates and that adding adolescent vaccination offers limited added benefit.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1553-7358</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1553-734X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1553-7358</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011832</identifier><identifier>PMID: 38285727</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Adolescents ; Adults ; Analysis ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Children ; Children & youth ; Cohort analysis ; COVID-19 ; Development and progression ; Disease transmission ; Diseases ; Epidemic models ; Epidemics ; Estimates ; Hazards ; Health aspects ; Households ; Infections ; Infectious diseases ; Infectivity ; Medical research ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Medicine, Experimental ; Netherlands ; Patient admissions ; People and Places ; Population studies ; Public health ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Survival analysis ; Teenagers ; Vaccination ; Viral diseases</subject><ispartof>PLoS computational biology, 2024-01, Vol.20 (1), p.e1011832-e1011832</ispartof><rights>Copyright: © 2024 van Boven et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2024 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2024 van Boven et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2024 van Boven et al 2024 van Boven et al</rights><rights>2024 van Boven et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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A main inclusion criterion in such studies is usually the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we estimate age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates using data from a prospective household-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 307 households containing 1,209 persons were included from August 2020 until March 2021. Follow-up of households took place between August 2020 and August 2021 with maximal follow-up per household mostly limited to 161 days. Almost 1 out of 5 households (59/307) had evidence of an introduction of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates in our study population with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. Best fitting transmission models included increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses indicate that vaccination of adults can strongly reduce household infection attack rates and that adding adolescent vaccination offers limited added benefit.</description><subject>Adolescents</subject><subject>Adults</subject><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Children</subject><subject>Children & youth</subject><subject>Cohort analysis</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>Development and progression</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Diseases</subject><subject>Epidemic models</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Estimates</subject><subject>Hazards</subject><subject>Health aspects</subject><subject>Households</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Infectivity</subject><subject>Medical research</subject><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subject>Medicine, Experimental</subject><subject>Netherlands</subject><subject>Patient 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Louis</au><au>Rozhnova, Ganna</au><au>Bonten, Marc J</au><au>Kretzschmar, Mirjam E</au><au>Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia</au><au>Britton, Tom</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study</atitle><jtitle>PLoS computational biology</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS Comput Biol</addtitle><date>2024-01-01</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>20</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>e1011832</spage><epage>e1011832</epage><pages>e1011832-e1011832</pages><issn>1553-7358</issn><issn>1553-734X</issn><eissn>1553-7358</eissn><abstract>Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of susceptibility and infectivity by person-type. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is usually the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we estimate age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates using data from a prospective household-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 307 households containing 1,209 persons were included from August 2020 until March 2021. Follow-up of households took place between August 2020 and August 2021 with maximal follow-up per household mostly limited to 161 days. Almost 1 out of 5 households (59/307) had evidence of an introduction of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates in our study population with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. Best fitting transmission models included increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses indicate that vaccination of adults can strongly reduce household infection attack rates and that adding adolescent vaccination offers limited added benefit.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>38285727</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011832</doi><tpages>e1011832</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0841-2400</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7504-9947</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4394-7697</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1553-7358 |
| ispartof | PLoS computational biology, 2024-01, Vol.20 (1), p.e1011832-e1011832 |
| issn | 1553-7358 1553-734X 1553-7358 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_plos_journals_3069179494 |
| source | MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; Public Library of Science (PLoS); EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; PubMed Central |
| subjects | Adolescents Adults Analysis Biology and Life Sciences Children Children & youth Cohort analysis COVID-19 Development and progression Disease transmission Diseases Epidemic models Epidemics Estimates Hazards Health aspects Households Infections Infectious diseases Infectivity Medical research Medicine and Health Sciences Medicine, Experimental Netherlands Patient admissions People and Places Population studies Public health Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Survival analysis Teenagers Vaccination Viral diseases |
| title | Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study |
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