Association of environmental and socioeconomic indicators with serious mental illness diagnoses identified from general practitioner practice data in England: A spatial Bayesian modelling study

The evidence is sparse regarding the associations between serious mental illnesses (SMIs) prevalence and environmental factors in adulthood as well as the geographic distribution and variability of these associations. In this study, we evaluated the association between availability and proximity of green and blue space with SMI prevalence in England as a whole and in its major conurbations (Greater London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester, Leeds, and Newcastle). We carried out a retrospective analysis of routinely collected adult population (≥18 years) data at General Practitioner Practice (GPP) level. We used data from the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) on the prevalence of a diagnosis of SMI (schizophrenia, bipolar affective disorder and other psychoses, and other patients on lithium therapy) at the level of GPP over the financial year April 2014 to March 2018. The number of GPPs included ranged between 7,492 (April 2017 to March 2018) to 7,997 (April 2014 to March 2015) and the number of patients ranged from 56,413,719 (April 2014 to March 2015) to 58,270,354 (April 2017 to March 2018). Data at GPP level were converted to the geographic hierarchy unit Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level for analysis. LSOAs are a geographic unit for reporting small area statistics and have an average population of around 1,500 people. We employed a Bayesian spatial regression model to explore the association of SMI prevalence in England and its major conurbations (greater London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester, Leeds, and Newcastle) with environmental characteristics (green and blue space, flood risk areas, and air and noise pollution) and socioeconomic characteristics (age, ethnicity, and index of multiple deprivation (IMD)). We incorporated spatial random effects in our modelling to account for variation at multiple scales. Across England, the environmental characteristics associated with higher SMI prevalence at LSOA level were distance to public green space with a lake (prevalence ratio [95% credible interval]): 1.002 [1.001 to 1.003]), annual mean concentration of PM2.5 (1.014 [1.01 to 1.019]), and closeness to roads with noise levels above 75 dB (0.993 [0.992 to 0.995]). Higher SMI prevalence was also associated with a higher percentage of people above 24 years old (1.002 [1.002 to 1.003]), a higher percentage of ethnic minorities (1.002 [1.001 to 1.002]), and more deprived areas. Mean SMI prevalence at LSOA level in major conurbations mirror