The simplified hybrid model based on BP to predict the reference crop evapotranspiration in Southwest China

The accurate prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration is of great significance to climate research and regional agricultural water management. In order to realize the high-precision prediction of ETO in the absence of meteorological data, this study use XGBoost to select key influencing facto...

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Veröffentlicht in:PloS one 2022-06, Vol.17 (6), p.e0269746-e0269746
Hauptverfasser: Zhao, Zhenhua, Feng, Guohua, Zhang, Jing
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Feng, Guohua
Zhang, Jing
description The accurate prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration is of great significance to climate research and regional agricultural water management. In order to realize the high-precision prediction of ETO in the absence of meteorological data, this study use XGBoost to select key influencing factors and BP algorithm to construct ETO prediction model of 12 meteorological stations in South West China in this study. ACO, CSO and CS algorithms are used to optimize the model and improve the adaptability of the model. The results show that Tmax, n and Ra can be used as the input combination of ETO model construction, and Tmax is the primary factor affecting ETO. ETO model constructed by BP algorithm has good goodness of fit with the ETO calculated by FAO-56 PM and ACO, CSO and CS have significant optimization effect on BP algorithm, among which CSO algorithm has the best optimization ability on BP, with RMSE, R2, MAE, NSE, GPI ranging 0.200-0.377, 0.932-0.984, 0.140-0.261, 0.920-0.984, 1.472-2.000, GPI ranking is 1-23. Therefore, the input combination (Tmax, n and Ra) and CSO-BP model are recommended as a simplified model for ETO prediction in Southwest China.
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In order to realize the high-precision prediction of ETO in the absence of meteorological data, this study use XGBoost to select key influencing factors and BP algorithm to construct ETO prediction model of 12 meteorological stations in South West China in this study. ACO, CSO and CS algorithms are used to optimize the model and improve the adaptability of the model. The results show that Tmax, n and Ra can be used as the input combination of ETO model construction, and Tmax is the primary factor affecting ETO. ETO model constructed by BP algorithm has good goodness of fit with the ETO calculated by FAO-56 PM and ACO, CSO and CS have significant optimization effect on BP algorithm, among which CSO algorithm has the best optimization ability on BP, with RMSE, R2, MAE, NSE, GPI ranging 0.200-0.377, 0.932-0.984, 0.140-0.261, 0.920-0.984, 1.472-2.000, GPI ranking is 1-23. 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In order to realize the high-precision prediction of ETO in the absence of meteorological data, this study use XGBoost to select key influencing factors and BP algorithm to construct ETO prediction model of 12 meteorological stations in South West China in this study. ACO, CSO and CS algorithms are used to optimize the model and improve the adaptability of the model. The results show that Tmax, n and Ra can be used as the input combination of ETO model construction, and Tmax is the primary factor affecting ETO. ETO model constructed by BP algorithm has good goodness of fit with the ETO calculated by FAO-56 PM and ACO, CSO and CS have significant optimization effect on BP algorithm, among which CSO algorithm has the best optimization ability on BP, with RMSE, R2, MAE, NSE, GPI ranging 0.200-0.377, 0.932-0.984, 0.140-0.261, 0.920-0.984, 1.472-2.000, GPI ranking is 1-23. Therefore, the input combination (Tmax, n and Ra) and CSO-BP model are recommended as a simplified model for ETO prediction in Southwest China.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>35696403</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0269746</doi><tpages>e0269746</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2018-9595</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Accuracy
Adaptability
Agricultural management
Agricultural research
Agriculture
Algorithms
Analysis
Ant colony optimization
Biology and Life Sciences
China
Climate
Climate change
Computer and Information Sciences
Crop evapotranspiration
Earth Sciences
Evapotranspiration
Goodness of fit
Humidity
Hydrologic cycle
Machine learning
Meteorological data
Meteorology
Modelling
Neural networks
Neurons
Optimization
Optimization algorithms
Physical Sciences
Precipitation
Prediction models
Propagation
Radiation
Regional climates
Research and Analysis Methods
Social Sciences
Support vector machines
Water management
Weather stations
Wind
title The simplified hybrid model based on BP to predict the reference crop evapotranspiration in Southwest China
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