Study of Asian indexes by a newly derived dynamic model
We take the stock prices as a dynamic system and characterize its movements by a newly derived dynamic model, called the new Price Reversion Model (nPRM), for which the solution is derived and carefully analyzed under different circumstances. We also develop a procedure of applying the nPRM to real...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PloS one 2022-05, Vol.17 (5), p.e0266600-e0266600 |
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| creator | Chiang-Lin, Tsung-Jui Lee, Yong-Shiuan Shieh, Tzong-Hann Yen, Chien-Chang Tsai, Shang-Yueh |
| description | We take the stock prices as a dynamic system and characterize its movements by a newly derived dynamic model, called the new Price Reversion Model (nPRM), for which the solution is derived and carefully analyzed under different circumstances. We also develop a procedure of applying the nPRM to real daily closing prices of a stock index. This proposed procedure brings a different perspective to the study of stock prices based on thermodynamics, and the time varying coefficients in the nPRM offer economic meanings of the stock movements. More specifically, the average of smoothed historical data A in the nPRM, analogous to the environment temperature in the Newton's law of cooling, represent an implied equilibrium price. The heat transfer coefficient κ is adapted to be either negative or positive, which illustrates the speed of convergence or divergence of stock prices, respectively. The empirical study of ten Asian stock indexes shows that the nPRM accurately characterizes and forecasts the market values. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0266600 |
| format | Article |
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We also develop a procedure of applying the nPRM to real daily closing prices of a stock index. This proposed procedure brings a different perspective to the study of stock prices based on thermodynamics, and the time varying coefficients in the nPRM offer economic meanings of the stock movements. More specifically, the average of smoothed historical data A in the nPRM, analogous to the environment temperature in the Newton's law of cooling, represent an implied equilibrium price. The heat transfer coefficient κ is adapted to be either negative or positive, which illustrates the speed of convergence or divergence of stock prices, respectively. The empirical study of ten Asian stock indexes shows that the nPRM accurately characterizes and forecasts the market values.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0266600</identifier><identifier>PMID: 35499989</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Artificial intelligence ; Commerce ; Computer and Information Sciences ; Cooling ; Divergence ; Dynamic models ; Dynamical systems ; Efficient markets ; Empirical analysis ; Forecasting ; Heat transfer ; Heat transfer coefficients ; Hypotheses ; Market prices ; Market value ; Methods ; Movement ; Neural networks ; Physical Sciences ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Reversion ; Securities markets ; Signal processing ; Social Sciences ; Statistical analysis ; Stochastic models ; Stock exchanges ; Thermodynamics ; Time series ; Trends</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2022-05, Vol.17 (5), p.e0266600-e0266600</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2022 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2022 Chiang-Lin et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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We also develop a procedure of applying the nPRM to real daily closing prices of a stock index. This proposed procedure brings a different perspective to the study of stock prices based on thermodynamics, and the time varying coefficients in the nPRM offer economic meanings of the stock movements. More specifically, the average of smoothed historical data A in the nPRM, analogous to the environment temperature in the Newton's law of cooling, represent an implied equilibrium price. The heat transfer coefficient κ is adapted to be either negative or positive, which illustrates the speed of convergence or divergence of stock prices, respectively. 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| subjects | Artificial intelligence Commerce Computer and Information Sciences Cooling Divergence Dynamic models Dynamical systems Efficient markets Empirical analysis Forecasting Heat transfer Heat transfer coefficients Hypotheses Market prices Market value Methods Movement Neural networks Physical Sciences Research and Analysis Methods Reversion Securities markets Signal processing Social Sciences Statistical analysis Stochastic models Stock exchanges Thermodynamics Time series Trends |
| title | Study of Asian indexes by a newly derived dynamic model |
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