Past and future epidemic potential of chikungunya virus in Australia
Australia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capa...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PLoS neglected tropical diseases 2021-11, Vol.15 (11), p.e0009963-e0009963 |
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| creator | White, Timothy Mincham, Gina Montgomery, Brian L Jansen, Cassie C Huang, Xiaodong Williams, Craig R Flower, Robert L P Faddy, Helen M Frentiu, Francesca D Viennet, Elvina |
| description | Australia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector.
We estimated the historical (1995-2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period.
By estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009963 |
| format | Article |
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We estimated the historical (1995-2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period.
By estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1935-2735</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1935-2727</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1935-2735</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009963</identifier><identifier>PMID: 34784371</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Aedes - physiology ; Aedes - virology ; Aedes aegypti ; Aedes albopictus ; Animals ; Aquatic insects ; Australia - epidemiology ; Bayes Theorem ; Biology and life sciences ; Censuses ; Chikungunya fever ; Chikungunya Fever - epidemiology ; Chikungunya Fever - transmission ; Chikungunya Fever - virology ; Chikungunya virus ; Chikungunya virus - genetics ; Chikungunya virus - physiology ; Dengue fever ; Disease transmission ; Distribution ; Earth Sciences ; Epidemics ; Female ; Forecasts and trends ; Genotype & phenotype ; Health surveillance ; Human populations ; Humans ; Male ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Mortality ; Mosquito Vectors - physiology ; Mosquito Vectors - virology ; Mosquitoes ; People and Places ; Population density ; Population number ; Public health ; Reproduction ; Risk factors ; Sensitivity analysis ; Simulation ; Temperature ; Transmission ; Tropical diseases ; Urban environments ; Vector-borne diseases ; Vectors ; Viruses</subject><ispartof>PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2021-11, Vol.15 (11), p.e0009963-e0009963</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2021 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2021 White et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2021 White et al 2021 White et al</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c624t-b2910737186a1db2f4da7c992ea5816542655a05e74912898e50ba538ac02faf3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c624t-b2910737186a1db2f4da7c992ea5816542655a05e74912898e50ba538ac02faf3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-4758-1506 ; 0000-0003-2337-4753 ; 0000-0002-7257-1844 ; 0000-0002-3446-8248 ; 0000-0002-1418-1426 ; 0000-0001-8628-4216 ; 0000-0002-7755-9852 ; 0000-0002-8707-6694</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8631637/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8631637/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,864,885,2102,2928,23866,27924,27925,53791,53793</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34784371$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Barker, Christopher M.</contributor><creatorcontrib>White, Timothy</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mincham, Gina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Montgomery, Brian L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jansen, Cassie C</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Huang, Xiaodong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Williams, Craig R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Flower, Robert L P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Faddy, Helen M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Frentiu, Francesca D</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Viennet, Elvina</creatorcontrib><title>Past and future epidemic potential of chikungunya virus in Australia</title><title>PLoS neglected tropical diseases</title><addtitle>PLoS Negl Trop Dis</addtitle><description>Australia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector.
We estimated the historical (1995-2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period.
By estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations.</description><subject>Aedes - physiology</subject><subject>Aedes - virology</subject><subject>Aedes aegypti</subject><subject>Aedes albopictus</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Aquatic insects</subject><subject>Australia - epidemiology</subject><subject>Bayes Theorem</subject><subject>Biology and life sciences</subject><subject>Censuses</subject><subject>Chikungunya fever</subject><subject>Chikungunya Fever - epidemiology</subject><subject>Chikungunya Fever - transmission</subject><subject>Chikungunya Fever - virology</subject><subject>Chikungunya virus</subject><subject>Chikungunya virus - genetics</subject><subject>Chikungunya virus - physiology</subject><subject>Dengue fever</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Distribution</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Forecasts and trends</subject><subject>Genotype & phenotype</subject><subject>Health surveillance</subject><subject>Human populations</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Mosquito Vectors - physiology</subject><subject>Mosquito Vectors - virology</subject><subject>Mosquitoes</subject><subject>People and Places</subject><subject>Population density</subject><subject>Population number</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Reproduction</subject><subject>Risk factors</subject><subject>Sensitivity analysis</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Transmission</subject><subject>Tropical diseases</subject><subject>Urban environments</subject><subject>Vector-borne diseases</subject><subject>Vectors</subject><subject>Viruses</subject><issn>1935-2735</issn><issn>1935-2727</issn><issn>1935-2735</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNptkluLEzEYhgdR3HX1H4gOCOJNazI53whlPS0s6IVeh6-TTJs6TWoOC_vvTbezSytLLhKS532_Q76meY3RHBOBP25CiR7G-c5nM0cIKcXJk-YcK8JmnSDs6dH5rHmR0gYhppjEz5szQoWk1eS8-fwTUm7Bm3YouUTb2p0zduv6dhey9dnB2Iah7dfuT_Gr4m-hvXGxpNb5dlFSjjA6eNk8G2BM9tW0XzS_v375dfl9dv3j29Xl4nrW847m2bJTGIkaVnLAZtkN1IDoleos1LQ4ox1nDBCzgircSSUtQ0tgREKPugEGctG8PfjuxpD01ICkO46RqmIsK3F1IEyAjd5Ft4V4qwM4fXcR4kpDzK4frVYYhGRGUOCYGj4oRAziRBmCuewErV6fpmhlubWmr92o1Z6Ynr54t9arcKMlrxZEVIMPk0EMf4tNWW9d6u04greh1LyZkoxSjPfou__Qx6ubqBXUApwfQo3b7031gksmBUOKVWr-CFXX3b8GbwdX708E748EawtjXqcwluyCT6cgPYB9DClFOzw0AyO9H8r7rPV-KPU0lFX25riRD6L7KST_AAPu2-E</recordid><startdate>20211101</startdate><enddate>20211101</enddate><creator>White, Timothy</creator><creator>Mincham, Gina</creator><creator>Montgomery, Brian L</creator><creator>Jansen, Cassie C</creator><creator>Huang, Xiaodong</creator><creator>Williams, Craig R</creator><creator>Flower, Robert L P</creator><creator>Faddy, Helen M</creator><creator>Frentiu, Francesca D</creator><creator>Viennet, Elvina</creator><general>Public Library of Science</general><general>Public Library of Science (PLoS)</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7T2</scope><scope>7T7</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>H95</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>DOA</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4758-1506</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2337-4753</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7257-1844</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3446-8248</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1418-1426</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8628-4216</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7755-9852</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8707-6694</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20211101</creationdate><title>Past and future epidemic potential of chikungunya virus in Australia</title><author>White, Timothy ; Mincham, Gina ; Montgomery, Brian L ; Jansen, Cassie C ; Huang, Xiaodong ; Williams, Craig R ; Flower, Robert L P ; Faddy, Helen M ; Frentiu, Francesca D ; Viennet, Elvina</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c624t-b2910737186a1db2f4da7c992ea5816542655a05e74912898e50ba538ac02faf3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Aedes - physiology</topic><topic>Aedes - virology</topic><topic>Aedes aegypti</topic><topic>Aedes albopictus</topic><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Aquatic insects</topic><topic>Australia - epidemiology</topic><topic>Bayes Theorem</topic><topic>Biology and life sciences</topic><topic>Censuses</topic><topic>Chikungunya fever</topic><topic>Chikungunya Fever - epidemiology</topic><topic>Chikungunya Fever - transmission</topic><topic>Chikungunya Fever - virology</topic><topic>Chikungunya virus</topic><topic>Chikungunya virus - genetics</topic><topic>Chikungunya virus - physiology</topic><topic>Dengue fever</topic><topic>Disease transmission</topic><topic>Distribution</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Forecasts and trends</topic><topic>Genotype & phenotype</topic><topic>Health surveillance</topic><topic>Human populations</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Medicine and Health Sciences</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Mosquito Vectors - physiology</topic><topic>Mosquito Vectors - virology</topic><topic>Mosquitoes</topic><topic>People and Places</topic><topic>Population density</topic><topic>Population number</topic><topic>Public health</topic><topic>Reproduction</topic><topic>Risk factors</topic><topic>Sensitivity analysis</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><topic>Transmission</topic><topic>Tropical diseases</topic><topic>Urban environments</topic><topic>Vector-borne diseases</topic><topic>Vectors</topic><topic>Viruses</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>White, Timothy</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mincham, Gina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Montgomery, Brian L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jansen, Cassie C</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Huang, Xiaodong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Williams, Craig R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Flower, Robert L P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Faddy, Helen M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Frentiu, Francesca D</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Viennet, Elvina</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Health and Safety Science Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Industrial and Applied Microbiology Abstracts (Microbiology A)</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 1: Biological Sciences & Living Resources</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>MEDLINE - 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Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector.
We estimated the historical (1995-2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period.
By estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>34784371</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pntd.0009963</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4758-1506</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2337-4753</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7257-1844</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3446-8248</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1418-1426</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8628-4216</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7755-9852</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8707-6694</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2021-11, Vol.15 (11), p.e0009963-e0009963 |
| issn | 1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_plos_journals_2610942618 |
| source | MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; PubMed Central Open Access; Public Library of Science (PLoS) Journals Open Access; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; PubMed Central |
| subjects | Aedes - physiology Aedes - virology Aedes aegypti Aedes albopictus Animals Aquatic insects Australia - epidemiology Bayes Theorem Biology and life sciences Censuses Chikungunya fever Chikungunya Fever - epidemiology Chikungunya Fever - transmission Chikungunya Fever - virology Chikungunya virus Chikungunya virus - genetics Chikungunya virus - physiology Dengue fever Disease transmission Distribution Earth Sciences Epidemics Female Forecasts and trends Genotype & phenotype Health surveillance Human populations Humans Male Medicine and Health Sciences Mortality Mosquito Vectors - physiology Mosquito Vectors - virology Mosquitoes People and Places Population density Population number Public health Reproduction Risk factors Sensitivity analysis Simulation Temperature Transmission Tropical diseases Urban environments Vector-borne diseases Vectors Viruses |
| title | Past and future epidemic potential of chikungunya virus in Australia |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-19T17%3A49%3A56IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-gale_plos_&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Past%20and%20future%20epidemic%20potential%20of%20chikungunya%20virus%20in%20Australia&rft.jtitle=PLoS%20neglected%20tropical%20diseases&rft.au=White,%20Timothy&rft.date=2021-11-01&rft.volume=15&rft.issue=11&rft.spage=e0009963&rft.epage=e0009963&rft.pages=e0009963-e0009963&rft.issn=1935-2735&rft.eissn=1935-2735&rft_id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009963&rft_dat=%3Cgale_plos_%3EA685875095%3C/gale_plos_%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2610942618&rft_id=info:pmid/34784371&rft_galeid=A685875095&rft_doaj_id=oai_doaj_org_article_91a785d74a614d6f903d0639d3168274&rfr_iscdi=true |