Financial sector and economic growth amid external uncertainty shocks: Insights into emerging economies
The study aims to shed new lights on the lead-lag relationships between the financial sector (RFSI) and economic growth (GDP) in the midst of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) shocks for BRICS economies. Hence, the bivariate, partial, and wavelet multiple correlations techniques are employed...
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| description | The study aims to shed new lights on the lead-lag relationships between the financial sector (RFSI) and economic growth (GDP) in the midst of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) shocks for BRICS economies. Hence, the bivariate, partial, and wavelet multiple correlations techniques are employed. From the bivariate analysis, we document positive bi-directional causality between the RFSI and economic growth over the sample period. The partial wavelet reveals that GEPU shocks distort the significance and directional comovements between the RFSI and GDP. Moreover, the outcome from the wavelet multiple cross correlations (WMCC) indicates that the RFSI is a first mover at most time scales for the BRICS economies. This is followed by GEPU which either leads or lags for most scales, especially for South Africa. The impact of GEPU on RFSI and GDP is worst for South Africa in about four cases in the medium-, and long-terms. This signifies that South Africa's financial markets and economic growth are vulnerable to GEPU. However, the impetus for GEPU to drive the comovements between the financial sector and economic activity was less pronounced in the pre-COVID analysis conducted with the WMCC. The study supports both the supply-leading and demand-following hypotheses. Our findings also underscore the need for policymakers, investors and academics alike to incessantly observe the dynamics between finance and growth across time and periodicity while considering adverse shocks from global economic policy uncertainty in tandem. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0259303 |
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Hence, the bivariate, partial, and wavelet multiple correlations techniques are employed. From the bivariate analysis, we document positive bi-directional causality between the RFSI and economic growth over the sample period. The partial wavelet reveals that GEPU shocks distort the significance and directional comovements between the RFSI and GDP. Moreover, the outcome from the wavelet multiple cross correlations (WMCC) indicates that the RFSI is a first mover at most time scales for the BRICS economies. This is followed by GEPU which either leads or lags for most scales, especially for South Africa. The impact of GEPU on RFSI and GDP is worst for South Africa in about four cases in the medium-, and long-terms. This signifies that South Africa's financial markets and economic growth are vulnerable to GEPU. However, the impetus for GEPU to drive the comovements between the financial sector and economic activity was less pronounced in the pre-COVID analysis conducted with the WMCC. The study supports both the supply-leading and demand-following hypotheses. Our findings also underscore the need for policymakers, investors and academics alike to incessantly observe the dynamics between finance and growth across time and periodicity while considering adverse shocks from global economic policy uncertainty in tandem.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259303</identifier><identifier>PMID: 34762668</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Bivariate analysis ; Corporate governance ; Correlation ; Cost control ; COVID-19 ; Cross correlation ; Economic activity ; Economic analysis ; Economic aspects ; Economic conditions ; Economic Development ; Economic growth ; Economic policy ; Emerging markets ; Evaluation ; Financial services ; GDP ; Global economy ; Gross Domestic Product ; International finance ; Investments ; Investors ; Macroeconomics ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; People and places ; Periodicity ; Policy making ; Securities markets ; Social Sciences ; Supervision ; Uncertainty</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2021-11, Vol.16 (11), p.e0259303</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2021 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2021 Asafo-Adjei et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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Adu-Asare</au><au>Owusu Junior, Peterson</au><au>Adam, Anokye M</au><au>Trinidad Segovia, J E.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Financial sector and economic growth amid external uncertainty shocks: Insights into emerging economies</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2021-11-11</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>16</volume><issue>11</issue><spage>e0259303</spage><pages>e0259303-</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>The study aims to shed new lights on the lead-lag relationships between the financial sector (RFSI) and economic growth (GDP) in the midst of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) shocks for BRICS economies. Hence, the bivariate, partial, and wavelet multiple correlations techniques are employed. From the bivariate analysis, we document positive bi-directional causality between the RFSI and economic growth over the sample period. The partial wavelet reveals that GEPU shocks distort the significance and directional comovements between the RFSI and GDP. Moreover, the outcome from the wavelet multiple cross correlations (WMCC) indicates that the RFSI is a first mover at most time scales for the BRICS economies. This is followed by GEPU which either leads or lags for most scales, especially for South Africa. The impact of GEPU on RFSI and GDP is worst for South Africa in about four cases in the medium-, and long-terms. This signifies that South Africa's financial markets and economic growth are vulnerable to GEPU. However, the impetus for GEPU to drive the comovements between the financial sector and economic activity was less pronounced in the pre-COVID analysis conducted with the WMCC. The study supports both the supply-leading and demand-following hypotheses. Our findings also underscore the need for policymakers, investors and academics alike to incessantly observe the dynamics between finance and growth across time and periodicity while considering adverse shocks from global economic policy uncertainty in tandem.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>34762668</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0259303</doi><tpages>e0259303</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4449-6285</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6253-5770</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Bivariate analysis Corporate governance Correlation Cost control COVID-19 Cross correlation Economic activity Economic analysis Economic aspects Economic conditions Economic Development Economic growth Economic policy Emerging markets Evaluation Financial services GDP Global economy Gross Domestic Product International finance Investments Investors Macroeconomics Medicine and Health Sciences People and places Periodicity Policy making Securities markets Social Sciences Supervision Uncertainty |
| title | Financial sector and economic growth amid external uncertainty shocks: Insights into emerging economies |
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