Incorporating the speciation process into species delimitation

The "multispecies" coalescent (MSC) model that underlies many genomic species-delimitation approaches is problematic because it does not distinguish between genetic structure associated with species versus that of populations within species. Consequently, as both the genomic and spatial resolution of data increases, a proliferation of artifactual species results as within-species population lineages, detected due to restrictions in gene flow, are identified as distinct species. The toll of this extends beyond systematic studies, getting magnified across the many disciplines that rely upon an accurate framework of identified species. Here we present the first of a new class of approaches that addresses this issue by incorporating an extended speciation process for species delimitation. We model the formation of population lineages and their subsequent development into independent species as separate processes and provide for a way to incorporate current understanding of the species boundaries in the system through specification of species identities of a subset of population lineages. As a result, species boundaries and within-species lineages boundaries can be discriminated across the entire system, and species identities can be assigned to the remaining lineages of unknown affinities with quantified probabilities. In addition to the identification of species units in nature, the primary goal of species delimitation, the incorporation of a speciation model also allows us insights into the links between population and species-level processes. By explicitly accounting for restrictions in gene flow not only between, but also within, species, we also address the limits of genetic data for delimiting species. Specifically, while genetic data alone is not sufficient for accurate delimitation, when considered in conjunction with other information we are able to not only learn about species boundaries, but also about the tempo of the speciation process itself.