Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK

The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission-successfully reducing the reproductive number R below one. Ho...

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Veröffentlicht in:PLoS computational biology 2021-05, Vol.17 (5), p.e1008849-e1008849
Hauptverfasser: Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M, Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J, Keeling, Matt J
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creator Moore, Sam
Hill, Edward M
Dyson, Louise
Tildesley, Michael J
Keeling, Matt J
description The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission-successfully reducing the reproductive number R below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible individuals that remain, complete relaxation of controls is likely to generate a substantial further outbreak. Vaccination remains the only foreseeable means of both containing the infection and returning to normal interactions and behaviour. Here, we consider the optimal targeting of vaccination within the UK, with the aim of minimising future deaths or quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses. We show that, for a range of assumptions on the action and efficacy of the vaccine, targeting older age groups first is optimal and may be sufficient to stem the epidemic if the vaccine prevents transmission as well as disease.
doi_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008849
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subjects Age
Asymptomatic
Biology and Life Sciences
Communicable Disease Control
Computer Simulation
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - immunology
COVID-19 - prevention & control
COVID-19 - transmission
COVID-19 vaccines
COVID-19 Vaccines - administration & dosage
Disease control
Disease transmission
Hospitals
Human performance
Human populations
Humans
Immunity, Herd
Infections
Mathematical models
Mathematical optimization
Medicine and Health Sciences
Mortality
Ordinary differential equations
Pandemics
People and Places
Public health
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Signs and symptoms
United Kingdom - epidemiology
Vaccination
Vaccines
Viral diseases
title Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK
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