Climatic change and extinction risk of two globally threatened Ethiopian endemic bird species
Climate change is having profound effects on the distributions of species globally. Trait-based assessments predict that specialist and range-restricted species are among those most likely to be at risk of extinction from such changes. Understanding individual species' responses to climate chan...
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| creator | Bladon, Andrew J Donald, Paul F Collar, Nigel J Denge, Jarso Dadacha, Galgalo Wondafrash, Mengistu Green, Rhys E |
| description | Climate change is having profound effects on the distributions of species globally. Trait-based assessments predict that specialist and range-restricted species are among those most likely to be at risk of extinction from such changes. Understanding individual species' responses to climate change is therefore critical for informing conservation planning. We use an established Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) protocol to describe the curious range-restriction of the globally threatened White-tailed Swallow (Hirundo megaensis) to a small area in southern Ethiopia. We find that, across a range of modelling approaches, the distribution of this species is well described by two climatic variables, maximum temperature and dry season precipitation. These same two variables have been previously found to limit the distribution of the unrelated but closely sympatric Ethiopian Bush-crow (Zavattariornis stresemanni). We project the future climatic suitability for both species under a range of climate scenarios and modelling approaches. Both species are at severe risk of extinction within the next half century, as the climate in 68-84% (for the swallow) and 90-100% (for the bush-crow) of their current ranges is predicted to become unsuitable. Intensive conservation measures, such as assisted migration and captive-breeding, may be the only options available to safeguard these two species. Their projected disappearance in the wild offers an opportunity to test the reliability of SDMs for predicting the fate of wild species. Monitoring future changes in the distribution and abundance of the bush-crow is particularly tractable because its nests are conspicuous and visible over large distances. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0249633 |
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Trait-based assessments predict that specialist and range-restricted species are among those most likely to be at risk of extinction from such changes. Understanding individual species' responses to climate change is therefore critical for informing conservation planning. We use an established Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) protocol to describe the curious range-restriction of the globally threatened White-tailed Swallow (Hirundo megaensis) to a small area in southern Ethiopia. We find that, across a range of modelling approaches, the distribution of this species is well described by two climatic variables, maximum temperature and dry season precipitation. These same two variables have been previously found to limit the distribution of the unrelated but closely sympatric Ethiopian Bush-crow (Zavattariornis stresemanni). We project the future climatic suitability for both species under a range of climate scenarios and modelling approaches. Both species are at severe risk of extinction within the next half century, as the climate in 68-84% (for the swallow) and 90-100% (for the bush-crow) of their current ranges is predicted to become unsuitable. Intensive conservation measures, such as assisted migration and captive-breeding, may be the only options available to safeguard these two species. Their projected disappearance in the wild offers an opportunity to test the reliability of SDMs for predicting the fate of wild species. 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This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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Trait-based assessments predict that specialist and range-restricted species are among those most likely to be at risk of extinction from such changes. Understanding individual species' responses to climate change is therefore critical for informing conservation planning. We use an established Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) protocol to describe the curious range-restriction of the globally threatened White-tailed Swallow (Hirundo megaensis) to a small area in southern Ethiopia. We find that, across a range of modelling approaches, the distribution of this species is well described by two climatic variables, maximum temperature and dry season precipitation. These same two variables have been previously found to limit the distribution of the unrelated but closely sympatric Ethiopian Bush-crow (Zavattariornis stresemanni). We project the future climatic suitability for both species under a range of climate scenarios and modelling approaches. 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Monitoring future changes in the distribution and abundance of the bush-crow is particularly tractable because its nests are conspicuous and visible over large distances.</description><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Animal breeding</subject><subject>Animal species</subject><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Birds</subject><subject>Breeding</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate change scenarios</subject><subject>Climate effects</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climatic changes</subject><subject>Cold</subject><subject>Conservation</subject><subject>Drafting software</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Ecology and Environmental Sciences</subject><subject>Editing</subject><subject>Endangered & extinct species</subject><subject>Endemic species</subject><subject>Environmental aspects</subject><subject>Extinction</subject><subject>Extinction (Biology)</subject><subject>Funding</subject><subject>Geographical 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Both species are at severe risk of extinction within the next half century, as the climate in 68-84% (for the swallow) and 90-100% (for the bush-crow) of their current ranges is predicted to become unsuitable. Intensive conservation measures, such as assisted migration and captive-breeding, may be the only options available to safeguard these two species. Their projected disappearance in the wild offers an opportunity to test the reliability of SDMs for predicting the fate of wild species. Monitoring future changes in the distribution and abundance of the bush-crow is particularly tractable because its nests are conspicuous and visible over large distances.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>34010302</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0249633</doi><tpages>e0249633</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2677-1247</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| source | DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; Public Library of Science (PLoS) Journals Open Access; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; PubMed Central; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry |
| subjects | Analysis Animal breeding Animal species Biology and Life Sciences Birds Breeding Climate change Climate change scenarios Climate effects Climate models Climatic changes Cold Conservation Drafting software Earth Sciences Ecology and Environmental Sciences Editing Endangered & extinct species Endemic species Environmental aspects Extinction Extinction (Biology) Funding Geographical distribution Methodology Methods National parks Physical Sciences Plant species Population changes Population decline Population studies Precipitation Protection and preservation Research and Analysis Methods Reviews Social Sciences Species extinction Threatened species Visualization Wildlife Wildlife conservation Zoology |
| title | Climatic change and extinction risk of two globally threatened Ethiopian endemic bird species |
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