The value of decreasing the duration of the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection
Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potentia...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PLoS computational biology 2021-01, Vol.17 (1), p.e1008470 |
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| creator | Lee, Bruce Y Bartsch, Sarah M Ferguson, Marie C Wedlock, Patrick T O'Shea, Kelly J Siegmund, Sheryl S Cox, Sarah N McKinnell, James A |
| description | Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 [treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0.5 days, reproductive number (R0) 3.5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed] to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3.5 days, R0 2.0). With R0 2.5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0.5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1.4 million cases and 99,398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2.8 million cases. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R0 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008470 |
| format | Article |
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Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R0 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). 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Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R0 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). 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Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R0 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>33411742</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008470</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7635-5949</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2633-8651</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0523-4717</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2784-6279</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2447-0504</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Biology and life sciences Computational Biology Computer Simulation Control Coronaviruses Cost control COVID-19 COVID-19 - epidemiology COVID-19 - transmission COVID-19 Drug Treatment COVID-19 Vaccines - therapeutic use Disease transmission Epidemics Exposure Hospitalization Humans Immunization Infections Infectious disease incubation period Medicine and Health Sciences Models, Biological Pandemics - prevention & control Pandemics - statistics & numerical data Patient admissions Population Respiratory diseases SARS-CoV-2 - drug effects Sepsis Severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Third party Time Factors United States - epidemiology Vaccines Viral diseases Virus Shedding - drug effects Viruses |
| title | The value of decreasing the duration of the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection |
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