Data-driven study of the COVID-19 pandemic via age-structured modelling and prediction of the health system failure in Brazil amid diverse intervention strategies

In this work we propose a data-driven age-structured census-based SIRD-like epidemiological model capable of forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. We model the current scenario of closed schools and universities, social distancing of people above sixty years old and voluntary home quarantine...

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Veröffentlicht in:	PloS one 2020-07, Vol.15 (7), p.e0236310-e0236310
Hauptverfasser:	Canabarro, Askery, Tenório, Elayne, Martins, Renato, Martins, Laís, Brito, Samuraí, Chaves, Rafael
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Adolescent Adult Age Age Distribution Aged Aged, 80 and over Betacoronavirus Brazil - epidemiology Catastrophic failure analysis Child Child, Preschool Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - mortality Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control Coronavirus Infections - virology Coronaviruses COVID-19 Disease control Disease transmission Disease Transmission, Infectious - prevention & control Epidemic models Epidemics Epidemiology Female Forecasting Hospitals Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Infections Intensive care units Investigations Male Medicine and Health Sciences Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Ordinary differential equations Pandemics Pandemics - prevention & control People and places Physics Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Pneumonia, Viral - mortality Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - virology Population Prognosis Public health Quarantine Quarantine - methods SARS-CoV-2 Schools Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Social distancing Social Sciences Vaccines Young Adult
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