Exploring the future of land use and food security: A new set of global scenarios
Facing a growing and more affluent world population, changing climate and finite natural resources, world food systems will have to change in the future. The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to ov...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PloS one 2020-07, Vol.15 (7), p.e0235597 |
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| creator | Mora, Olivier Le Mouël, Chantal de Lattre-Gasquet, Marie Donnars, Catherine Dumas, Patrice Réchauchère, Olivier Brunelle, Thierry Manceron, Stéphane Marajo-Petitzon, Elodie Moreau, Clémence Barzman, Marc Forslund, Agneta Marty, Pauline |
| description | Facing a growing and more affluent world population, changing climate and finite natural resources, world food systems will have to change in the future. The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to overlooked aspects such as nutrition and health, in order to help explore the possible future of the global food system. In this article, we seek to highlight how the resulting set of scenarios contributes to the debate on land use and food security and enlarges the range of possible futures for the global food system. We highlight four main contributions. Combining a scenario building method based on morphological analysis and quantitative simulations with a tractable and simple biomass balance model, the proposed approach improves transparency and coherence between scenario narratives and quantitative assessment. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios comprise a wide range of alternative diets, with contrasting underlying nutritional and health issues, which accompany contrasting urbanization and rural transformation processes, both dimensions that are lacking in other sets of global scenarios. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios share some similarities with existing sets of global scenarios, notably the SSPs, but are usually less optimistic regarding agricultural land expansion up to 2050. Results suggest that changing global diets toward healthier patterns could also help to limit the expansion in agricultural land area. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios enlarge the scope of possible futures by proposing two pathways that are uncommon in other sets of global scenarios. The first proposes to explore possible reconnection of the food industry and regional production within supranational regional blocs. The second means that we should consider that a 'perfect storm', induced by climate change and an ecological crisis combined with social and economic crises, is still possible. Both scenarios should be part of the debate as the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic shows. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0235597 |
| format | Article |
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The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to overlooked aspects such as nutrition and health, in order to help explore the possible future of the global food system. In this article, we seek to highlight how the resulting set of scenarios contributes to the debate on land use and food security and enlarges the range of possible futures for the global food system. We highlight four main contributions. Combining a scenario building method based on morphological analysis and quantitative simulations with a tractable and simple biomass balance model, the proposed approach improves transparency and coherence between scenario narratives and quantitative assessment. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios comprise a wide range of alternative diets, with contrasting underlying nutritional and health issues, which accompany contrasting urbanization and rural transformation processes, both dimensions that are lacking in other sets of global scenarios. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios share some similarities with existing sets of global scenarios, notably the SSPs, but are usually less optimistic regarding agricultural land expansion up to 2050. Results suggest that changing global diets toward healthier patterns could also help to limit the expansion in agricultural land area. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios enlarge the scope of possible futures by proposing two pathways that are uncommon in other sets of global scenarios. The first proposes to explore possible reconnection of the food industry and regional production within supranational regional blocs. 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Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL)</collection><collection>HAL-SHS: Archive ouverte en Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société</collection><collection>HAL-SHS: Archive ouverte en Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société (Open Access)</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL) (Open Access)</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Mora, Olivier</au><au>Le Mouël, Chantal</au><au>de Lattre-Gasquet, Marie</au><au>Donnars, Catherine</au><au>Dumas, Patrice</au><au>Réchauchère, Olivier</au><au>Brunelle, Thierry</au><au>Manceron, Stéphane</au><au>Marajo-Petitzon, Elodie</au><au>Moreau, Clémence</au><au>Barzman, Marc</au><au>Forslund, Agneta</au><au>Marty, Pauline</au><au>Bui, Elisabeth</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Exploring the future of land use and food security: A new set of global scenarios</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2020-07-08</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>15</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>e0235597</spage><pages>e0235597-</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Facing a growing and more affluent world population, changing climate and finite natural resources, world food systems will have to change in the future. The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to overlooked aspects such as nutrition and health, in order to help explore the possible future of the global food system. In this article, we seek to highlight how the resulting set of scenarios contributes to the debate on land use and food security and enlarges the range of possible futures for the global food system. We highlight four main contributions. Combining a scenario building method based on morphological analysis and quantitative simulations with a tractable and simple biomass balance model, the proposed approach improves transparency and coherence between scenario narratives and quantitative assessment. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios comprise a wide range of alternative diets, with contrasting underlying nutritional and health issues, which accompany contrasting urbanization and rural transformation processes, both dimensions that are lacking in other sets of global scenarios. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios share some similarities with existing sets of global scenarios, notably the SSPs, but are usually less optimistic regarding agricultural land expansion up to 2050. Results suggest that changing global diets toward healthier patterns could also help to limit the expansion in agricultural land area. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios enlarge the scope of possible futures by proposing two pathways that are uncommon in other sets of global scenarios. The first proposes to explore possible reconnection of the food industry and regional production within supranational regional blocs. The second means that we should consider that a 'perfect storm', induced by climate change and an ecological crisis combined with social and economic crises, is still possible. Both scenarios should be part of the debate as the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic shows.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>32639991</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0235597</doi><tpages>e0235597</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1523-2456</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4155-1955</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7874-9762</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3896-7589</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4293-201X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8377-8755</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8805-1918</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1932-6203 |
| ispartof | PloS one, 2020-07, Vol.15 (7), p.e0235597 |
| issn | 1932-6203 1932-6203 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_plos_journals_2421429047 |
| source | MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; Public Library of Science (PLoS); EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; PubMed Central; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry |
| subjects | Agricultural land Agricultural production Agriculture Biology and Life Sciences Climate and population Climate change Computer Simulation Conservation of Natural Resources Coronavirus Infections - economics Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology COVID-19 Diet Earth Sciences Economic crisis Environmental aspects Environmental Sciences Farmlands Feeds Food industry Food processing industry Food production Food Quality Food security Food Supply Food systems Forecasts and trends France Futures Global Health Humanities and Social Sciences Humans Land use Life Sciences Medicine and Health Sciences Methods Natural resources Nutrition Pandemics Pandemics - economics Pneumonia, Viral - economics Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Population Rural urban relations Social aspects Social Sciences Sustainability Trends Urbanization World population |
| title | Exploring the future of land use and food security: A new set of global scenarios |
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