Estimating the prevalence and risk of COVID-19 among international travelers and evacuees of Wuhan through modeling and case reports

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China and has spread through other provinces and countries through infected travelers. On January 23rd, 2020, China issued a quarantine and travel ban on Wuhan because travelers from Wuhan were thought to account for the majority of exported COVI...

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Veröffentlicht in:PloS one 2020-06, Vol.15 (6), p.e0234955-e0234955
Hauptverfasser: Luo, George, McHenry, Michael L, Letterio, John J
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Letterio, John J
description Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China and has spread through other provinces and countries through infected travelers. On January 23rd, 2020, China issued a quarantine and travel ban on Wuhan because travelers from Wuhan were thought to account for the majority of exported COVID-19 cases to other countries. Additionally, countries evacuated their citizens from Wuhan after institution of the travel ban. Together, these two populations account for the vast majority of the "total cases with travel history to China" as designated by the World Health Organization (WHO). The current study aims to assess the prevalence and risk of COVID-19 among international travelers and evacuees of Wuhan. We first used case reports from Japan, Singapore, and Korea to investigate the date of flights of infected travelers. We then used airline traveler data and the number of infected exported cases to correlate the cases with the number of travelers for multiple countries. Our findings suggest that the risk of COVID-19 infection is highest among Wuhan travelers between January 19th and 22nd, 2020, with an approximate infection rate of up to 1.3% among international travelers. We also observed that evacuee infection rates varied heavily between countries and propose that the timing of the evacuation and COVID-19 testing of asymptomatic evacuees played significant roles in the infection rates among evacuees. These findings suggest COVID-19 cases and infectivity are much higher than previous estimates, including numbers from the WHO and the literature, and that some estimates of the infectivity of COVID-19 may need re-assessment.
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On January 23rd, 2020, China issued a quarantine and travel ban on Wuhan because travelers from Wuhan were thought to account for the majority of exported COVID-19 cases to other countries. Additionally, countries evacuated their citizens from Wuhan after institution of the travel ban. Together, these two populations account for the vast majority of the "total cases with travel history to China" as designated by the World Health Organization (WHO). The current study aims to assess the prevalence and risk of COVID-19 among international travelers and evacuees of Wuhan. We first used case reports from Japan, Singapore, and Korea to investigate the date of flights of infected travelers. We then used airline traveler data and the number of infected exported cases to correlate the cases with the number of travelers for multiple countries. 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subjects Aircraft
Asymptomatic
Asymptomatic Infections
Case reports
China
Communicable Disease Control
Computer and Information Sciences
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - transmission
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease Transmission, Infectious
Distribution
Epidemics
Foreign visitors
Health aspects
Health risks
Humans
Infections
Infectivity
Investigations
Medicine and Health Sciences
Models, Biological
Pandemics
People and Places
Physical Sciences
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
Prevalence
Refugees
Research and Analysis Methods
Risk factors
Travel
Viral diseases
title Estimating the prevalence and risk of COVID-19 among international travelers and evacuees of Wuhan through modeling and case reports
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