Natural history museum collection and citizen science data show advancing phenology of Danish hoverflies (Insecta: Diptera, Syrphidae) with increasing annual temperature
We explore the phenological response by Danish hoverflies (Syrphidae) to continually rising annual temperatures by analysing >50.000 natural history collection and citizen science records for 37 species collected between 1900 and 2018, a period during which the annual average temperature in Denma...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PloS one 2020-05, Vol.15 (5), p.e0232980-e0232980 |
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| creator | Olsen, Kent Holm, Thomas Eske Pape, Thomas Simonsen, Thomas J |
| description | We explore the phenological response by Danish hoverflies (Syrphidae) to continually rising annual temperatures by analysing >50.000 natural history collection and citizen science records for 37 species collected between 1900 and 2018, a period during which the annual average temperature in Denmark rose significantly (p |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0232980 |
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We perform a simple linear regression analysis of the 10th percentile observation date for each species against year of observation. Fourteen of the species showed a statistically significant (p < 0.05) negative correlation between 10th percentile date and year of observation, indicating earlier emergence as a likely response to climatic warming. Eighteen species showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05) negative correlation between 10th percentile date and year of observation, while four species showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05) positive correlation, and one showed neither a positive nor a negative correlation. We explore the possible impact of the length of the data series on the regression analysis by dividing the species into four groups depending on how far back in time we have data: ultra-short series (with data from 2003-2018); short series (data from 1998-2018); medium series (data from 1980-2018); long series (data from 2018 to before 1980). The length of the series seems to have an effect on the results as 60% of the long series species (nine out of 15) showed a statistically significant negative correlation, while for the shorter series species less than 35% showed a statistically significant negative correlation. When we reduced the long series in length to short series, the proportion of statistically significant negative correlations fell to 33%, confirming this assumption. We conclude that northern temperate hoverflies generally react to the ongoing climatic warming by emerging earlier.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232980</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32401772</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Animal specimens ; Annual temperatures ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Climate ; Climate change ; Collection ; Collections ; Collectors ; Correlation ; Datasets ; Ecology and Environmental Sciences ; Environmental aspects ; Lifestyles ; Museums ; Natural history ; Phenology ; Physical Sciences ; Regression analysis ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Science Policy ; Significance ; Species ; Statistical analysis ; Statistical significance ; Statistics ; Syrphidae ; Taxonomy ; Time</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2020-05, Vol.15 (5), p.e0232980-e0232980</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2020 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2020 Olsen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2020 Olsen et al 2020 Olsen et al</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c593t-2cc02c3973469f45986d2d9b144333caca295a9420098bc15b208fa91ac580013</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c593t-2cc02c3973469f45986d2d9b144333caca295a9420098bc15b208fa91ac580013</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-9857-9564</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219768/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219768/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,864,885,2100,2919,23857,27915,27916,53782,53784,79361,79362</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32401772$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Doi, Hideyuki</contributor><creatorcontrib>Olsen, Kent</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Holm, Thomas Eske</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pape, Thomas</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Simonsen, Thomas J</creatorcontrib><title>Natural history museum collection and citizen science data show advancing phenology of Danish hoverflies (Insecta: Diptera, Syrphidae) with increasing annual temperature</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>We explore the phenological response by Danish hoverflies (Syrphidae) to continually rising annual temperatures by analysing >50.000 natural history collection and citizen science records for 37 species collected between 1900 and 2018, a period during which the annual average temperature in Denmark rose significantly (p << 0.01). We perform a simple linear regression analysis of the 10th percentile observation date for each species against year of observation. Fourteen of the species showed a statistically significant (p < 0.05) negative correlation between 10th percentile date and year of observation, indicating earlier emergence as a likely response to climatic warming. Eighteen species showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05) negative correlation between 10th percentile date and year of observation, while four species showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05) positive correlation, and one showed neither a positive nor a negative correlation. We explore the possible impact of the length of the data series on the regression analysis by dividing the species into four groups depending on how far back in time we have data: ultra-short series (with data from 2003-2018); short series (data from 1998-2018); medium series (data from 1980-2018); long series (data from 2018 to before 1980). The length of the series seems to have an effect on the results as 60% of the long series species (nine out of 15) showed a statistically significant negative correlation, while for the shorter series species less than 35% showed a statistically significant negative correlation. When we reduced the long series in length to short series, the proportion of statistically significant negative correlations fell to 33%, confirming this assumption. We conclude that northern temperate hoverflies generally react to the ongoing climatic warming by emerging earlier.</description><subject>Animal specimens</subject><subject>Annual temperatures</subject><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Collection</subject><subject>Collections</subject><subject>Collectors</subject><subject>Correlation</subject><subject>Datasets</subject><subject>Ecology and Environmental Sciences</subject><subject>Environmental aspects</subject><subject>Lifestyles</subject><subject>Museums</subject><subject>Natural history</subject><subject>Phenology</subject><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Research and Analysis Methods</subject><subject>Science Policy</subject><subject>Significance</subject><subject>Species</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Statistical 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titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Olsen, Kent</au><au>Holm, Thomas Eske</au><au>Pape, Thomas</au><au>Simonsen, Thomas J</au><au>Doi, Hideyuki</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Natural history museum collection and citizen science data show advancing phenology of Danish hoverflies (Insecta: Diptera, Syrphidae) with increasing annual temperature</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2020-05-13</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>15</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>e0232980</spage><epage>e0232980</epage><pages>e0232980-e0232980</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>We explore the phenological response by Danish hoverflies (Syrphidae) to continually rising annual temperatures by analysing >50.000 natural history collection and citizen science records for 37 species collected between 1900 and 2018, a period during which the annual average temperature in Denmark rose significantly (p << 0.01). We perform a simple linear regression analysis of the 10th percentile observation date for each species against year of observation. Fourteen of the species showed a statistically significant (p < 0.05) negative correlation between 10th percentile date and year of observation, indicating earlier emergence as a likely response to climatic warming. Eighteen species showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05) negative correlation between 10th percentile date and year of observation, while four species showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05) positive correlation, and one showed neither a positive nor a negative correlation. We explore the possible impact of the length of the data series on the regression analysis by dividing the species into four groups depending on how far back in time we have data: ultra-short series (with data from 2003-2018); short series (data from 1998-2018); medium series (data from 1980-2018); long series (data from 2018 to before 1980). The length of the series seems to have an effect on the results as 60% of the long series species (nine out of 15) showed a statistically significant negative correlation, while for the shorter series species less than 35% showed a statistically significant negative correlation. When we reduced the long series in length to short series, the proportion of statistically significant negative correlations fell to 33%, confirming this assumption. We conclude that northern temperate hoverflies generally react to the ongoing climatic warming by emerging earlier.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>32401772</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0232980</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9857-9564</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Animal specimens Annual temperatures Biology and Life Sciences Climate Climate change Collection Collections Collectors Correlation Datasets Ecology and Environmental Sciences Environmental aspects Lifestyles Museums Natural history Phenology Physical Sciences Regression analysis Research and Analysis Methods Science Policy Significance Species Statistical analysis Statistical significance Statistics Syrphidae Taxonomy Time |
| title | Natural history museum collection and citizen science data show advancing phenology of Danish hoverflies (Insecta: Diptera, Syrphidae) with increasing annual temperature |
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