A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain
Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus of ruminants that has been circulating in Europe continuously for more than two decades and has become endemic in some countries such as Spain. Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred...
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| description | Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus of ruminants that has been circulating in Europe continuously for more than two decades and has become endemic in some countries such as Spain. Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures. |
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Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232534</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32353863</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Abundance ; Algorithms ; Animals ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Bluetongue ; Bluetongue - epidemiology ; Bluetongue - prevention & control ; Bluetongue - transmission ; Bluetongue - virology ; Bluetongue virus - pathogenicity ; Ceratopogonidae - virology ; Computer and Information Sciences ; Datasets ; Decision making ; Decision Support Techniques ; Decision trees ; Density ; Endemic Diseases - prevention & control ; Endemic Diseases - veterinary ; Epidemics ; Epidemiological Monitoring - veterinary ; Epidemiology ; Farms ; Geography ; Health surveillance ; Insect Vectors - virology ; Insecticides ; Learning algorithms ; Machine learning ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Models, Statistical ; People and places ; Pest outbreaks ; Physical Sciences ; Probability ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Satellite data ; Serogroup ; Serotypes ; Sheep ; Soils ; Spain - epidemiology ; Spatial Analysis ; Spatial discrimination ; Spatial resolution ; Studies ; Variables ; Vectors ; Vegetation ; Veterinary medicine ; Viruses</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2020-04, Vol.15 (4), p.e0232534</ispartof><rights>2020 Aguilar-Vega et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures.</description><subject>Abundance</subject><subject>Algorithms</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Bluetongue</subject><subject>Bluetongue - epidemiology</subject><subject>Bluetongue - prevention & control</subject><subject>Bluetongue - transmission</subject><subject>Bluetongue - virology</subject><subject>Bluetongue virus - pathogenicity</subject><subject>Ceratopogonidae - virology</subject><subject>Computer and Information Sciences</subject><subject>Datasets</subject><subject>Decision making</subject><subject>Decision Support Techniques</subject><subject>Decision trees</subject><subject>Density</subject><subject>Endemic Diseases - prevention & control</subject><subject>Endemic Diseases - veterinary</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Epidemiological Monitoring - veterinary</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Farms</subject><subject>Geography</subject><subject>Health surveillance</subject><subject>Insect Vectors - virology</subject><subject>Insecticides</subject><subject>Learning algorithms</subject><subject>Machine learning</subject><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subject>Models, Statistical</subject><subject>People and places</subject><subject>Pest outbreaks</subject><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Probability</subject><subject>Research and Analysis Methods</subject><subject>Satellite data</subject><subject>Serogroup</subject><subject>Serotypes</subject><subject>Sheep</subject><subject>Soils</subject><subject>Spain - epidemiology</subject><subject>Spatial Analysis</subject><subject>Spatial discrimination</subject><subject>Spatial resolution</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Variables</subject><subject>Vectors</subject><subject>Vegetation</subject><subject>Veterinary medicine</subject><subject>Viruses</subject><issn>1932-6203</issn><issn>1932-6203</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kU9P3DAQxa2KqsDCN0Bgqefd2h7HSS5ICLUFCZUD7dnyn_GSVTYOdoLEt2-2GxAcevLIfu8343mEnHG24lDyb5s4ps60qz52uGICRAHyEzniNYilEgwO3tWH5DjnDWMFVEp9IYcgYFfCEfl1RbfRY0tDTHR4RGpyxpy32A00BmrbEYfYrUekz00aM82Y4vDSI-W0x5SbPGDnkDYdfehN052Qz8G0GU_nc0H-_Pj--_pmeXf_8_b66m7pCqGGJVjPjArgjeVlUQVTQlV5FpRyslJGeZi-Iy1TyoDAogwsBMaVtegLXlYIC3Kx5_ZtzHpeRdYCalWLUqhiUtzuFT6aje5TszXpRUfT6H8XMa21SUPjWtRWVk6ABGEqK4OVNqiiLg0Cdw6l5xPrcu422i16Ny0nmfYD9ONL1zzqdXzWJa-FmsgL8nUGpPg0Yh7-M7Lcq1yKOScMbx0407vMX116l7meM59s5--nezO9hgx_AeYzq0k</recordid><startdate>20200430</startdate><enddate>20200430</enddate><creator>Aguilar-Vega, Cecilia</creator><creator>Fernández-Carrión, Eduardo</creator><creator>Lucientes, Javier</creator><creator>Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel</creator><general>Public Library of Science</general><general>Public Library of Science (PLoS)</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QG</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7QO</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TM</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>D1I</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PDBOC</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>DOA</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5981-7291</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20200430</creationdate><title>A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain</title><author>Aguilar-Vega, Cecilia ; Fernández-Carrión, Eduardo ; Lucientes, Javier ; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c526t-3bd0a6f3dab1758fa7388d0f66c486a6d33254b066a32e57f0ff016bbed5178e3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Abundance</topic><topic>Algorithms</topic><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Biology and Life Sciences</topic><topic>Bluetongue</topic><topic>Bluetongue - 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epidemiology</topic><topic>Spatial Analysis</topic><topic>Spatial discrimination</topic><topic>Spatial resolution</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Variables</topic><topic>Vectors</topic><topic>Vegetation</topic><topic>Veterinary medicine</topic><topic>Viruses</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Aguilar-Vega, Cecilia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fernández-Carrión, Eduardo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lucientes, Javier</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Animal Behavior Abstracts</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Biotechnology Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Proquest Nursing & Allied Health Source</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Nucleic Acids Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Materials Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Materials Science Database</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - 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Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>32353863</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0232534</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5981-7291</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Abundance Algorithms Animals Biology and Life Sciences Bluetongue Bluetongue - epidemiology Bluetongue - prevention & control Bluetongue - transmission Bluetongue - virology Bluetongue virus - pathogenicity Ceratopogonidae - virology Computer and Information Sciences Datasets Decision making Decision Support Techniques Decision trees Density Endemic Diseases - prevention & control Endemic Diseases - veterinary Epidemics Epidemiological Monitoring - veterinary Epidemiology Farms Geography Health surveillance Insect Vectors - virology Insecticides Learning algorithms Machine learning Medicine and Health Sciences Models, Statistical People and places Pest outbreaks Physical Sciences Probability Research and Analysis Methods Satellite data Serogroup Serotypes Sheep Soils Spain - epidemiology Spatial Analysis Spatial discrimination Spatial resolution Studies Variables Vectors Vegetation Veterinary medicine Viruses |
| title | A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain |
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