Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model
Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death globally and the leading cause of death by a single infectious pathogen. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the End TB Strategy, which targets a 90% reduction in the incidence rate by the year 2035 compared to the level in the year...
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| description | Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death globally and the leading cause of death by a single infectious pathogen. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the End TB Strategy, which targets a 90% reduction in the incidence rate by the year 2035 compared to the level in the year 2015. In this work, a TB model is considered to understand the transmission dynamics in the top three TB burden countries-India, China, and Indonesia. Country-specific epidemiological parameters were identified using data reported by the WHO. If India and Indonesia succeed in enhancing their treatment protocols and increase treatment and treatment success rate to that of China, the incidence rate could be reduced by 65.99% and 68.49%, respectively, by the end of 2035. Evidently, complementary interventions are essential to achieve the WHO target. Our analytical approach utilizes optimal control theory to obtain time-dependent nonpharmaceutical and latent case finding controls. The objective functional of the optimal control problem includes a payoff term reflecting the goal set by WHO. Appropriate combinations of control strategies are investigated. Based on the results, gradual enhancement and continuous implementation of intervention measures are recommended in each country. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0230964 |
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The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the End TB Strategy, which targets a 90% reduction in the incidence rate by the year 2035 compared to the level in the year 2015. In this work, a TB model is considered to understand the transmission dynamics in the top three TB burden countries-India, China, and Indonesia. Country-specific epidemiological parameters were identified using data reported by the WHO. If India and Indonesia succeed in enhancing their treatment protocols and increase treatment and treatment success rate to that of China, the incidence rate could be reduced by 65.99% and 68.49%, respectively, by the end of 2035. Evidently, complementary interventions are essential to achieve the WHO target. Our analytical approach utilizes optimal control theory to obtain time-dependent nonpharmaceutical and latent case finding controls. The objective functional of the optimal control problem includes a payoff term reflecting the goal set by WHO. Appropriate combinations of control strategies are investigated. Based on the results, gradual enhancement and continuous implementation of intervention measures are recommended in each country.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0230964</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32271808</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Biology and Life Sciences ; China - epidemiology ; Comparative analysis ; Computer and Information Sciences ; Control theory ; Death ; Disease ; Engineering and Technology ; Epidemics ; Epidemiology ; Forecasts and trends ; Humans ; India - epidemiology ; Indonesia - epidemiology ; Intervention ; Mathematical models ; Mathematics ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Models, Theoretical ; Optimal control ; Ordinary differential equations ; Parameter identification ; People and Places ; Physical Sciences ; Population ; Public health ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Time ; Time dependence ; Tuberculosis ; Tuberculosis - epidemiology ; World Health Organization</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2020-04, Vol.15 (4), p.e0230964-e0230964</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2020 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2020 Kim et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2020 Kim et al 2020 Kim et al</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-3844f07850e91ad23fb73f8112c19e89c03a50cf23db909defe9013b39d267263</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-3844f07850e91ad23fb73f8112c19e89c03a50cf23db909defe9013b39d267263</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-4918-1087 ; 0000-0001-5418-4579 ; 0000-0002-7411-3134</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7144981/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7144981/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,864,885,2100,2926,23865,27923,27924,53790,53792,79371,79372</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32271808$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Gerberry, David</contributor><creatorcontrib>Kim, Soyoung</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>de Los Reyes V, Aurelio A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jung, Eunok</creatorcontrib><title>Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death globally and the leading cause of death by a single infectious pathogen. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the End TB Strategy, which targets a 90% reduction in the incidence rate by the year 2035 compared to the level in the year 2015. In this work, a TB model is considered to understand the transmission dynamics in the top three TB burden countries-India, China, and Indonesia. Country-specific epidemiological parameters were identified using data reported by the WHO. If India and Indonesia succeed in enhancing their treatment protocols and increase treatment and treatment success rate to that of China, the incidence rate could be reduced by 65.99% and 68.49%, respectively, by the end of 2035. Evidently, complementary interventions are essential to achieve the WHO target. Our analytical approach utilizes optimal control theory to obtain time-dependent nonpharmaceutical and latent case finding controls. The objective functional of the optimal control problem includes a payoff term reflecting the goal set by WHO. Appropriate combinations of control strategies are investigated. Based on the results, gradual enhancement and continuous implementation of intervention measures are recommended in each country.</description><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>China - epidemiology</subject><subject>Comparative analysis</subject><subject>Computer and Information Sciences</subject><subject>Control theory</subject><subject>Death</subject><subject>Disease</subject><subject>Engineering and Technology</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Forecasts and trends</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>India - epidemiology</subject><subject>Indonesia - epidemiology</subject><subject>Intervention</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Mathematics</subject><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Optimal control</subject><subject>Ordinary differential equations</subject><subject>Parameter identification</subject><subject>People and Places</subject><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Research and Analysis Methods</subject><subject>Time</subject><subject>Time dependence</subject><subject>Tuberculosis</subject><subject>Tuberculosis - 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Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Kim, Soyoung</au><au>de Los Reyes V, Aurelio A</au><au>Jung, Eunok</au><au>Gerberry, David</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2020-04-09</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>15</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>e0230964</spage><epage>e0230964</epage><pages>e0230964-e0230964</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death globally and the leading cause of death by a single infectious pathogen. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the End TB Strategy, which targets a 90% reduction in the incidence rate by the year 2035 compared to the level in the year 2015. In this work, a TB model is considered to understand the transmission dynamics in the top three TB burden countries-India, China, and Indonesia. Country-specific epidemiological parameters were identified using data reported by the WHO. If India and Indonesia succeed in enhancing their treatment protocols and increase treatment and treatment success rate to that of China, the incidence rate could be reduced by 65.99% and 68.49%, respectively, by the end of 2035. Evidently, complementary interventions are essential to achieve the WHO target. Our analytical approach utilizes optimal control theory to obtain time-dependent nonpharmaceutical and latent case finding controls. The objective functional of the optimal control problem includes a payoff term reflecting the goal set by WHO. Appropriate combinations of control strategies are investigated. Based on the results, gradual enhancement and continuous implementation of intervention measures are recommended in each country.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>32271808</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0230964</doi><tpages>e0230964</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4918-1087</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-4579</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7411-3134</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Biology and Life Sciences China - epidemiology Comparative analysis Computer and Information Sciences Control theory Death Disease Engineering and Technology Epidemics Epidemiology Forecasts and trends Humans India - epidemiology Indonesia - epidemiology Intervention Mathematical models Mathematics Medicine and Health Sciences Models, Theoretical Optimal control Ordinary differential equations Parameter identification People and Places Physical Sciences Population Public health Research and Analysis Methods Time Time dependence Tuberculosis Tuberculosis - epidemiology World Health Organization |
| title | Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model |
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