Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model
Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with r...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PloS one 2020-01, Vol.15 (1), p.e0227679 |
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| creator | Mihailović, Dragutin T Petrić, Dušan Petrović, Tamaš Hrnjaković-Cvjetković, Ivana Djurdjevic, Vladimir Nikolić-Đorić, Emilija Arsenić, Ilija Petrić, Mina Mimić, Gordan Ignjatović-Ćupina, Aleksandra |
| description | Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0227679 |
| format | Article |
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We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227679</identifier><identifier>PMID: 31940403</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Animal health ; Animals ; Annual temperatures ; Anopheles ; Anopheles - metabolism ; Anopheles - pathogenicity ; Biology and life sciences ; Climate Change ; Climate models ; Computer simulation ; Culex - virology ; Data collection ; Data collections ; Disease ; Drug dosages ; Earth Sciences ; Ecological monitoring ; Environmental assessment ; Environmental impact ; General circulation models ; Greenhouse gases ; Health risks ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infectious diseases ; Insect Vectors - virology ; Malaria ; Malaria - epidemiology ; Medicine and health sciences ; Melanoma ; Melanoma - epidemiology ; Mortality ; Mosquito Vectors - virology ; Mosquitoes ; Ocean models ; Overwintering ; People and Places ; Physics ; Public health ; Radiation ; Regional climate models ; Regional climates ; Regression analysis ; Regression models ; Relative abundance ; Relative humidity ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Sampling ; Seasons ; Serbia - epidemiology ; Signal monitoring ; Skin cancer ; Spreading ; Supervision ; Temperature ; U.V. radiation ; Ultraviolet radiation ; Vector-borne diseases ; Vectors ; Vectors (Biology) ; Veterinary medicine ; Viruses ; West Nile Fever - epidemiology ; West Nile virus ; Yugoslavia - epidemiology</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2020-01, Vol.15 (1), p.e0227679</ispartof><rights>2020 Mihailović et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.</description><subject>Animal health</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Annual temperatures</subject><subject>Anopheles</subject><subject>Anopheles - metabolism</subject><subject>Anopheles - pathogenicity</subject><subject>Biology and life sciences</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Culex - virology</subject><subject>Data collection</subject><subject>Data collections</subject><subject>Disease</subject><subject>Drug dosages</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Ecological monitoring</subject><subject>Environmental assessment</subject><subject>Environmental impact</subject><subject>General circulation models</subject><subject>Greenhouse gases</subject><subject>Health risks</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Insect Vectors - virology</subject><subject>Malaria</subject><subject>Malaria - epidemiology</subject><subject>Medicine and health sciences</subject><subject>Melanoma</subject><subject>Melanoma - epidemiology</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Mosquito Vectors - virology</subject><subject>Mosquitoes</subject><subject>Ocean models</subject><subject>Overwintering</subject><subject>People and Places</subject><subject>Physics</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Radiation</subject><subject>Regional climate models</subject><subject>Regional climates</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Regression models</subject><subject>Relative abundance</subject><subject>Relative humidity</subject><subject>Research and Analysis Methods</subject><subject>Sampling</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>Serbia - epidemiology</subject><subject>Signal monitoring</subject><subject>Skin cancer</subject><subject>Spreading</subject><subject>Supervision</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>U.V. radiation</subject><subject>Ultraviolet radiation</subject><subject>Vector-borne diseases</subject><subject>Vectors</subject><subject>Vectors (Biology)</subject><subject>Veterinary medicine</subject><subject>Viruses</subject><subject>West Nile Fever - epidemiology</subject><subject>West Nile virus</subject><subject>Yugoslavia - epidemiology</subject><issn>1932-6203</issn><issn>1932-6203</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNp1UttqGzEQXUpLk6b9g9IK-tJC7Oqy2l29FEzoJRDaQm-PYlaatWV2pY20NuQH-12VY8ckD32SmDlz5gznFMVLRudM1Oz9Omyih34-Bo9zynld1epRccqU4LOKU_H43v-keJbSmlIpmqp6WpwIpkpaUnFa_F2khCkN6CcSOmJ6N8CExKzAL5G4YQSTG55MKyQD9BAdkC2aKUSy8GFcYY-JrG6iAb9J5-QPpol8dT0S6xJCwnMC3hLnjbPoDe52DNiDDwPk6i3t77DeBus8kO8xbN0O9fYHxtbBO7JJzi-JhQlIF8NAgERcupDvPkodgsX-efGkgz7hi8N7Vvz69PHnxZfZ1bfPlxeLq5mRvJpmytq6UmVtKs6pREDKGmqsbLArubBdLQxYyRlIwaSkomUclWxrpZSRVc3FWfF6zzv2IemDBUlzIRrVZFidEZd7hA2w1mPMIuONDuD0bSHEpYY4OdOjbsHIklqQVtCyLlnLGNLONkaqLhvEMteHw7ZNO6A12aQI_QPShx3vVnoZtrpSFVNsJ-bNgSCG60325j-Syz3KxJBSxO64gVG9y9rdlN5lTR-ylsde3Vd3HLoLl_gHTKrVpw</recordid><startdate>20200101</startdate><enddate>20200101</enddate><creator>Mihailović, Dragutin T</creator><creator>Petrić, Dušan</creator><creator>Petrović, Tamaš</creator><creator>Hrnjaković-Cvjetković, Ivana</creator><creator>Djurdjevic, Vladimir</creator><creator>Nikolić-Đorić, Emilija</creator><creator>Arsenić, Ilija</creator><creator>Petrić, Mina</creator><creator>Mimić, Gordan</creator><creator>Ignjatović-Ćupina, Aleksandra</creator><general>Public Library of Science</general><general>Public Library of Science (PLoS)</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QG</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7QO</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TM</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>D1I</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PDBOC</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>DOA</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9164-3356</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8380-1844</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3399-1405</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20200101</creationdate><title>Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model</title><author>Mihailović, Dragutin T ; Petrić, Dušan ; Petrović, Tamaš ; Hrnjaković-Cvjetković, Ivana ; Djurdjevic, Vladimir ; Nikolić-Đorić, Emilija ; Arsenić, Ilija ; Petrić, Mina ; Mimić, Gordan ; Ignjatović-Ćupina, Aleksandra</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c526t-9dd76947c62205eae0180cd58ef423df73cad521a5315503b12e95b7999c56723</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Animal health</topic><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Annual temperatures</topic><topic>Anopheles</topic><topic>Anopheles - 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epidemiology</topic><topic>Signal monitoring</topic><topic>Skin cancer</topic><topic>Spreading</topic><topic>Supervision</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><topic>U.V. radiation</topic><topic>Ultraviolet radiation</topic><topic>Vector-borne diseases</topic><topic>Vectors</topic><topic>Vectors (Biology)</topic><topic>Veterinary medicine</topic><topic>Viruses</topic><topic>West Nile Fever - epidemiology</topic><topic>West Nile virus</topic><topic>Yugoslavia - epidemiology</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Mihailović, Dragutin T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Petrić, Dušan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Petrović, Tamaš</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hrnjaković-Cvjetković, Ivana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Djurdjevic, Vladimir</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nikolić-Đorić, Emilija</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Arsenić, Ilija</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Petrić, Mina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mimić, Gordan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ignjatović-Ćupina, Aleksandra</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Animal Behavior Abstracts</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Biotechnology Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Nucleic Acids Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Materials Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Materials Science Database</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Database</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Materials Science Collection</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Mihailović, Dragutin T</au><au>Petrić, Dušan</au><au>Petrović, Tamaš</au><au>Hrnjaković-Cvjetković, Ivana</au><au>Djurdjevic, Vladimir</au><au>Nikolić-Đorić, Emilija</au><au>Arsenić, Ilija</au><au>Petrić, Mina</au><au>Mimić, Gordan</au><au>Ignjatović-Ćupina, Aleksandra</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2020-01-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>15</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>e0227679</spage><pages>e0227679-</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>31940403</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0227679</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9164-3356</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8380-1844</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3399-1405</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1932-6203 |
| ispartof | PloS one, 2020-01, Vol.15 (1), p.e0227679 |
| issn | 1932-6203 1932-6203 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_plos_journals_2338987997 |
| source | MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; PubMed Central; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry; Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| subjects | Animal health Animals Annual temperatures Anopheles Anopheles - metabolism Anopheles - pathogenicity Biology and life sciences Climate Change Climate models Computer simulation Culex - virology Data collection Data collections Disease Drug dosages Earth Sciences Ecological monitoring Environmental assessment Environmental impact General circulation models Greenhouse gases Health risks Humans Incidence Infectious diseases Insect Vectors - virology Malaria Malaria - epidemiology Medicine and health sciences Melanoma Melanoma - epidemiology Mortality Mosquito Vectors - virology Mosquitoes Ocean models Overwintering People and Places Physics Public health Radiation Regional climate models Regional climates Regression analysis Regression models Relative abundance Relative humidity Research and Analysis Methods Sampling Seasons Serbia - epidemiology Signal monitoring Skin cancer Spreading Supervision Temperature U.V. radiation Ultraviolet radiation Vector-borne diseases Vectors Vectors (Biology) Veterinary medicine Viruses West Nile Fever - epidemiology West Nile virus Yugoslavia - epidemiology |
| title | Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model |
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