ETAPOD: A forecast model for prediction of black pod disease outbreak in Nigeria
Food poisoning and environmental pollution are products of excessive chemical usage in Agriculture. In Nigeria, cocoa farmers apply fungicides frequently to control black pod disease (BPD), this practice is life threatening and lethal to the environment. The development of a warning system to detect...
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| creator | Etaware, Peter M Adedeji, Abiodun R Osowole, Oyedeji I Odebode, Adegboyega C |
| description | Food poisoning and environmental pollution are products of excessive chemical usage in Agriculture. In Nigeria, cocoa farmers apply fungicides frequently to control black pod disease (BPD), this practice is life threatening and lethal to the environment. The development of a warning system to detect BPD outbreak can help minimize excessive usage of fungicide by farmers. 8 models (MRM1-MRM8) were developed and 5 (MRM1-MRM5) selected for optimization and performance check. MRM5 (ETAPOD) performed better than the other forecast models. ETAPOD had 100% performance rating for BPD prediction in Ekiti (2009, 2010, 2011 and 2015) with model efficiency of 95-100%. The performance of the model was rated 80% in 2010 and 2015 (Ondo) with model efficiency of 85-90%, 70% in 2011 (Osun) with model efficiency of 81-84%, 60% in 2010 (Ondo and Osun) and 2015 (Osun) with model efficiency of 75-80%, 40% in 2009 (Osun) with model efficiency of 65-69% and 0% 1n 2011 (Ondo) with model efficiency between 0 and 49%. ETAPOD is a simplified BPD detection device for the past, present and future. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0209306 |
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In Nigeria, cocoa farmers apply fungicides frequently to control black pod disease (BPD), this practice is life threatening and lethal to the environment. The development of a warning system to detect BPD outbreak can help minimize excessive usage of fungicide by farmers. 8 models (MRM1-MRM8) were developed and 5 (MRM1-MRM5) selected for optimization and performance check. MRM5 (ETAPOD) performed better than the other forecast models. ETAPOD had 100% performance rating for BPD prediction in Ekiti (2009, 2010, 2011 and 2015) with model efficiency of 95-100%. The performance of the model was rated 80% in 2010 and 2015 (Ondo) with model efficiency of 85-90%, 70% in 2011 (Osun) with model efficiency of 81-84%, 60% in 2010 (Ondo and Osun) and 2015 (Osun) with model efficiency of 75-80%, 40% in 2009 (Osun) with model efficiency of 65-69% and 0% 1n 2011 (Ondo) with model efficiency between 0 and 49%. ETAPOD is a simplified BPD detection device for the past, present and future.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0209306</identifier><identifier>PMID: 31923186</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Agriculture ; Agrochemicals ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Black pod ; Cacao - growth & development ; Cacao - microbiology ; Chemical pollution ; Cocoa ; Decision Making ; Disease control ; Earth Sciences ; Efficiency ; Environmental pollution ; Epidemics ; Epidemiology ; Farmers ; Food contamination ; Food poisoning ; Fungicides ; Fungicides, Industrial - adverse effects ; Humans ; Humidity ; Mathematical models ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Nigeria - epidemiology ; Optimization ; Organic chemistry ; Outbreaks ; People and Places ; Performance rating ; Physical Sciences ; Plant diseases ; Plant Diseases - microbiology ; Plant Diseases - prevention & control ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Warning systems</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2020-01, Vol.15 (1), p.e0209306-e0209306</ispartof><rights>2020 Etaware et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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In Nigeria, cocoa farmers apply fungicides frequently to control black pod disease (BPD), this practice is life threatening and lethal to the environment. The development of a warning system to detect BPD outbreak can help minimize excessive usage of fungicide by farmers. 8 models (MRM1-MRM8) were developed and 5 (MRM1-MRM5) selected for optimization and performance check. MRM5 (ETAPOD) performed better than the other forecast models. ETAPOD had 100% performance rating for BPD prediction in Ekiti (2009, 2010, 2011 and 2015) with model efficiency of 95-100%. The performance of the model was rated 80% in 2010 and 2015 (Ondo) with model efficiency of 85-90%, 70% in 2011 (Osun) with model efficiency of 81-84%, 60% in 2010 (Ondo and Osun) and 2015 (Osun) with model efficiency of 75-80%, 40% in 2009 (Osun) with model efficiency of 65-69% and 0% 1n 2011 (Ondo) with model efficiency between 0 and 49%. 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In Nigeria, cocoa farmers apply fungicides frequently to control black pod disease (BPD), this practice is life threatening and lethal to the environment. The development of a warning system to detect BPD outbreak can help minimize excessive usage of fungicide by farmers. 8 models (MRM1-MRM8) were developed and 5 (MRM1-MRM5) selected for optimization and performance check. MRM5 (ETAPOD) performed better than the other forecast models. ETAPOD had 100% performance rating for BPD prediction in Ekiti (2009, 2010, 2011 and 2015) with model efficiency of 95-100%. The performance of the model was rated 80% in 2010 and 2015 (Ondo) with model efficiency of 85-90%, 70% in 2011 (Osun) with model efficiency of 81-84%, 60% in 2010 (Ondo and Osun) and 2015 (Osun) with model efficiency of 75-80%, 40% in 2009 (Osun) with model efficiency of 65-69% and 0% 1n 2011 (Ondo) with model efficiency between 0 and 49%. 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| subjects | Agriculture Agrochemicals Biology and Life Sciences Black pod Cacao - growth & development Cacao - microbiology Chemical pollution Cocoa Decision Making Disease control Earth Sciences Efficiency Environmental pollution Epidemics Epidemiology Farmers Food contamination Food poisoning Fungicides Fungicides, Industrial - adverse effects Humans Humidity Mathematical models Medicine and Health Sciences Nigeria - epidemiology Optimization Organic chemistry Outbreaks People and Places Performance rating Physical Sciences Plant diseases Plant Diseases - microbiology Plant Diseases - prevention & control Research and Analysis Methods Warning systems |
| title | ETAPOD: A forecast model for prediction of black pod disease outbreak in Nigeria |
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