Can we predict when to start renal replacement therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease using 6 months of clinical data?

We aimed to develop a model of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression for predicting the probability and time to progression from various CKD stages to renal replacement therapy (RRT), using 6 months of clinical data variables routinely measured at healthcare centers. Data were derived from the el...

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Veröffentlicht in:PloS one 2018-10, Vol.13 (10), p.e0204586-e0204586
Hauptverfasser: Lee, Min-Jeong, Park, Joo-Han, Moon, Yeo Rae, Jo, Soo-Yeon, Yoon, Dukyong, Park, Rae Woong, Jeong, Jong Cheol, Park, Inwhee, Shin, Gyu-Tae, Kim, Heungsoo
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container_start_page e0204586
container_title PloS one
container_volume 13
creator Lee, Min-Jeong
Park, Joo-Han
Moon, Yeo Rae
Jo, Soo-Yeon
Yoon, Dukyong
Park, Rae Woong
Jeong, Jong Cheol
Park, Inwhee
Shin, Gyu-Tae
Kim, Heungsoo
description We aimed to develop a model of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression for predicting the probability and time to progression from various CKD stages to renal replacement therapy (RRT), using 6 months of clinical data variables routinely measured at healthcare centers. Data were derived from the electronic medical records of Ajou University Hospital, Suwon, South Korea from October 1997 to September 2012. We included patients who were diagnosed with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] < 60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 for ≥ 3 months) and followed up for at least 6 months. The study population was randomly divided into training and test sets. We identified 4,509 patients who met reasonable diagnostic criteria. Patients were randomly divided into 2 groups, and after excluding patients with missing data, the training and test sets included 1,625 and 1,618 patients, respectively. The integral mean was the most powerful explanatory (R2 = 0.404) variable among the 8 modified values. Ten variables (age, sex, diabetes mellitus[DM], polycystic kidney disease[PKD], serum albumin, serum hemoglobin, serum phosphorus, serum potassium, eGFR (calculated by Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI]), and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 3 (R2 = 0.330). Ten variables (age, sex, DM, GN, PKD, serum hemoglobin, serum blood urea nitrogen[BUN], serum calcium, eGFR(calculated by Modification of Diet in Renal Disease[MDRD]), and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 4 (R2 = 0.386). Four variables (serum hemoglobin, serum BUN, eGFR(calculated by MDRD) and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 5 (R2 = 0.321). We created a prediction model according to CKD stages by using integral means. Based on the results of the Brier score (BS) and Harrel's C statistics, we consider that our model has significant explanatory power to predict the probability and interval time to the initiation of RRT.
doi_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pone.0204586
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Data were derived from the electronic medical records of Ajou University Hospital, Suwon, South Korea from October 1997 to September 2012. We included patients who were diagnosed with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] &lt; 60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 for ≥ 3 months) and followed up for at least 6 months. The study population was randomly divided into training and test sets. We identified 4,509 patients who met reasonable diagnostic criteria. Patients were randomly divided into 2 groups, and after excluding patients with missing data, the training and test sets included 1,625 and 1,618 patients, respectively. The integral mean was the most powerful explanatory (R2 = 0.404) variable among the 8 modified values. Ten variables (age, sex, diabetes mellitus[DM], polycystic kidney disease[PKD], serum albumin, serum hemoglobin, serum phosphorus, serum potassium, eGFR (calculated by Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI]), and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 3 (R2 = 0.330). Ten variables (age, sex, DM, GN, PKD, serum hemoglobin, serum blood urea nitrogen[BUN], serum calcium, eGFR(calculated by Modification of Diet in Renal Disease[MDRD]), and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 4 (R2 = 0.386). Four variables (serum hemoglobin, serum BUN, eGFR(calculated by MDRD) and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 5 (R2 = 0.321). We created a prediction model according to CKD stages by using integral means. Based on the results of the Brier score (BS) and Harrel's C statistics, we consider that our model has significant explanatory power to predict the probability and interval time to the initiation of RRT.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0204586</identifier><identifier>PMID: 30286208</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Calcium ; Calcium (blood) ; Chronic kidney failure ; Comorbidity ; Development and progression ; Diabetes ; Diabetes mellitus ; Diagnosis ; Diagnostic systems ; Disease Progression ; Electronic Health Records ; Electronic medical records ; Epidemiology ; Epidermal growth factor receptors ; Female ; Glaucoma ; Glomerular filtration rate ; Health care ; Health informatics ; Hemoglobin ; Hospitals ; Humans ; Integrals ; Kidney diseases ; Kidneys ; Laboratories ; Male ; Mathematical models ; Medical records ; Medicine ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Middle Aged ; Missing data ; Models, Biological ; Nephrology ; Patients ; Peritoneal dialysis ; Phosphorus ; Physical Sciences ; Polycystic kidney ; Population ; Population studies ; Potassium ; Prediction models ; Prognosis ; Proteins ; Random Allocation ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - diagnosis ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - physiopathology ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - therapy ; Renal Replacement Therapy ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk ; Risk Assessment - methods ; Serum albumin ; Sex ; Test sets ; Therapy ; Time Factors ; Training ; Urea ; Urine ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2018-10, Vol.13 (10), p.e0204586-e0204586</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2018 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2018 Lee et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2018 Lee et al 2018 Lee et al</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-41c3c2d0071306b880e5861befeff5d1f81a99a01299c0ad69c86e9c188b2d943</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-41c3c2d0071306b880e5861befeff5d1f81a99a01299c0ad69c86e9c188b2d943</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-2611-7333 ; 0000-0002-9380-7457</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6171856/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6171856/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,864,885,2102,2928,23866,27924,27925,53791,53793,79600,79601</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30286208$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Barretti, Pasqual</contributor><creatorcontrib>Lee, Min-Jeong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Park, Joo-Han</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Moon, Yeo Rae</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jo, Soo-Yeon</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yoon, Dukyong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Park, Rae Woong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jeong, Jong Cheol</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Park, Inwhee</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shin, Gyu-Tae</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kim, Heungsoo</creatorcontrib><title>Can we predict when to start renal replacement therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease using 6 months of clinical data?</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>We aimed to develop a model of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression for predicting the probability and time to progression from various CKD stages to renal replacement therapy (RRT), using 6 months of clinical data variables routinely measured at healthcare centers. Data were derived from the electronic medical records of Ajou University Hospital, Suwon, South Korea from October 1997 to September 2012. We included patients who were diagnosed with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] &lt; 60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 for ≥ 3 months) and followed up for at least 6 months. The study population was randomly divided into training and test sets. We identified 4,509 patients who met reasonable diagnostic criteria. Patients were randomly divided into 2 groups, and after excluding patients with missing data, the training and test sets included 1,625 and 1,618 patients, respectively. The integral mean was the most powerful explanatory (R2 = 0.404) variable among the 8 modified values. Ten variables (age, sex, diabetes mellitus[DM], polycystic kidney disease[PKD], serum albumin, serum hemoglobin, serum phosphorus, serum potassium, eGFR (calculated by Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI]), and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 3 (R2 = 0.330). Ten variables (age, sex, DM, GN, PKD, serum hemoglobin, serum blood urea nitrogen[BUN], serum calcium, eGFR(calculated by Modification of Diet in Renal Disease[MDRD]), and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 4 (R2 = 0.386). Four variables (serum hemoglobin, serum BUN, eGFR(calculated by MDRD) and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 5 (R2 = 0.321). We created a prediction model according to CKD stages by using integral means. Based on the results of the Brier score (BS) and Harrel's C statistics, we consider that our model has significant explanatory power to predict the probability and interval time to the initiation of RRT.</description><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Calcium</subject><subject>Calcium (blood)</subject><subject>Chronic kidney failure</subject><subject>Comorbidity</subject><subject>Development and progression</subject><subject>Diabetes</subject><subject>Diabetes mellitus</subject><subject>Diagnosis</subject><subject>Diagnostic systems</subject><subject>Disease Progression</subject><subject>Electronic Health Records</subject><subject>Electronic medical records</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Epidermal growth factor receptors</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Glaucoma</subject><subject>Glomerular filtration rate</subject><subject>Health care</subject><subject>Health informatics</subject><subject>Hemoglobin</subject><subject>Hospitals</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Integrals</subject><subject>Kidney diseases</subject><subject>Kidneys</subject><subject>Laboratories</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Medical records</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Missing data</subject><subject>Models, Biological</subject><subject>Nephrology</subject><subject>Patients</subject><subject>Peritoneal dialysis</subject><subject>Phosphorus</subject><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Polycystic kidney</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Population studies</subject><subject>Potassium</subject><subject>Prediction models</subject><subject>Prognosis</subject><subject>Proteins</subject><subject>Random Allocation</subject><subject>Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - diagnosis</subject><subject>Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - physiopathology</subject><subject>Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - therapy</subject><subject>Renal Replacement Therapy</subject><subject>Research and Analysis Methods</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>Risk</subject><subject>Risk Assessment - methods</subject><subject>Serum albumin</subject><subject>Sex</subject><subject>Test sets</subject><subject>Therapy</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>Training</subject><subject>Urea</subject><subject>Urine</subject><subject>Young 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we predict when to start renal replacement therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease using 6 months of clinical data?</title><author>Lee, Min-Jeong ; Park, Joo-Han ; Moon, Yeo Rae ; Jo, Soo-Yeon ; Yoon, Dukyong ; Park, Rae Woong ; Jeong, Jong Cheol ; Park, Inwhee ; Shin, Gyu-Tae ; Kim, Heungsoo</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-41c3c2d0071306b880e5861befeff5d1f81a99a01299c0ad69c86e9c188b2d943</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2018</creationdate><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aged, 80 and over</topic><topic>Biology and Life Sciences</topic><topic>Calcium</topic><topic>Calcium (blood)</topic><topic>Chronic kidney failure</topic><topic>Comorbidity</topic><topic>Development and progression</topic><topic>Diabetes</topic><topic>Diabetes mellitus</topic><topic>Diagnosis</topic><topic>Diagnostic systems</topic><topic>Disease Progression</topic><topic>Electronic Health Records</topic><topic>Electronic medical records</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Epidermal growth factor receptors</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Glaucoma</topic><topic>Glomerular filtration rate</topic><topic>Health care</topic><topic>Health informatics</topic><topic>Hemoglobin</topic><topic>Hospitals</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Integrals</topic><topic>Kidney diseases</topic><topic>Kidneys</topic><topic>Laboratories</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Medical records</topic><topic>Medicine</topic><topic>Medicine and Health Sciences</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Missing data</topic><topic>Models, Biological</topic><topic>Nephrology</topic><topic>Patients</topic><topic>Peritoneal dialysis</topic><topic>Phosphorus</topic><topic>Physical Sciences</topic><topic>Polycystic kidney</topic><topic>Population</topic><topic>Population studies</topic><topic>Potassium</topic><topic>Prediction models</topic><topic>Prognosis</topic><topic>Proteins</topic><topic>Random Allocation</topic><topic>Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - diagnosis</topic><topic>Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - physiopathology</topic><topic>Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - therapy</topic><topic>Renal Replacement Therapy</topic><topic>Research and Analysis Methods</topic><topic>Retrospective Studies</topic><topic>Risk</topic><topic>Risk Assessment - methods</topic><topic>Serum albumin</topic><topic>Sex</topic><topic>Test sets</topic><topic>Therapy</topic><topic>Time Factors</topic><topic>Training</topic><topic>Urea</topic><topic>Urine</topic><topic>Young Adult</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Lee, Min-Jeong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Park, Joo-Han</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Moon, Yeo Rae</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jo, Soo-Yeon</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yoon, Dukyong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Park, Rae 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Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Lee, Min-Jeong</au><au>Park, Joo-Han</au><au>Moon, Yeo Rae</au><au>Jo, Soo-Yeon</au><au>Yoon, Dukyong</au><au>Park, Rae Woong</au><au>Jeong, Jong Cheol</au><au>Park, Inwhee</au><au>Shin, Gyu-Tae</au><au>Kim, Heungsoo</au><au>Barretti, Pasqual</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Can we predict when to start renal replacement therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease using 6 months of clinical data?</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2018-10-04</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>13</volume><issue>10</issue><spage>e0204586</spage><epage>e0204586</epage><pages>e0204586-e0204586</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>We aimed to develop a model of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression for predicting the probability and time to progression from various CKD stages to renal replacement therapy (RRT), using 6 months of clinical data variables routinely measured at healthcare centers. Data were derived from the electronic medical records of Ajou University Hospital, Suwon, South Korea from October 1997 to September 2012. We included patients who were diagnosed with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] &lt; 60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 for ≥ 3 months) and followed up for at least 6 months. The study population was randomly divided into training and test sets. We identified 4,509 patients who met reasonable diagnostic criteria. Patients were randomly divided into 2 groups, and after excluding patients with missing data, the training and test sets included 1,625 and 1,618 patients, respectively. The integral mean was the most powerful explanatory (R2 = 0.404) variable among the 8 modified values. Ten variables (age, sex, diabetes mellitus[DM], polycystic kidney disease[PKD], serum albumin, serum hemoglobin, serum phosphorus, serum potassium, eGFR (calculated by Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI]), and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 3 (R2 = 0.330). Ten variables (age, sex, DM, GN, PKD, serum hemoglobin, serum blood urea nitrogen[BUN], serum calcium, eGFR(calculated by Modification of Diet in Renal Disease[MDRD]), and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 4 (R2 = 0.386). Four variables (serum hemoglobin, serum BUN, eGFR(calculated by MDRD) and urinary protein) were included in the final risk prediction model for CKD stage 5 (R2 = 0.321). We created a prediction model according to CKD stages by using integral means. Based on the results of the Brier score (BS) and Harrel's C statistics, we consider that our model has significant explanatory power to predict the probability and interval time to the initiation of RRT.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>30286208</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0204586</doi><tpages>e0204586</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2611-7333</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9380-7457</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Biology and Life Sciences
Calcium
Calcium (blood)
Chronic kidney failure
Comorbidity
Development and progression
Diabetes
Diabetes mellitus
Diagnosis
Diagnostic systems
Disease Progression
Electronic Health Records
Electronic medical records
Epidemiology
Epidermal growth factor receptors
Female
Glaucoma
Glomerular filtration rate
Health care
Health informatics
Hemoglobin
Hospitals
Humans
Integrals
Kidney diseases
Kidneys
Laboratories
Male
Mathematical models
Medical records
Medicine
Medicine and Health Sciences
Middle Aged
Missing data
Models, Biological
Nephrology
Patients
Peritoneal dialysis
Phosphorus
Physical Sciences
Polycystic kidney
Population
Population studies
Potassium
Prediction models
Prognosis
Proteins
Random Allocation
Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - diagnosis
Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - physiopathology
Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - therapy
Renal Replacement Therapy
Research and Analysis Methods
Retrospective Studies
Risk
Risk Assessment - methods
Serum albumin
Sex
Test sets
Therapy
Time Factors
Training
Urea
Urine
Young Adult
title Can we predict when to start renal replacement therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease using 6 months of clinical data?
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