Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China
Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mo...
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| description | Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased ai |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0185690 |
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In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185690</identifier><identifier>PMID: 29099842</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Agricultural production ; Air temperature ; Analysis ; Biology and Life Sciences ; China ; Climate ; Climate change ; Computer simulation ; Crop evapotranspiration ; Crop production ; Crop yield ; Crop yields ; Crops ; Crops, Agricultural ; Earth Sciences ; Environmental assessment ; Evapotranspiration ; Food supply ; Global warming ; Grain ; Maximum temperatures ; Minimum temperatures ; Oryza ; People and Places ; Physical Sciences ; Planting ; Precipitation ; Rainfall ; Regional climates ; Relative humidity ; Seasons ; Soil ; Soil surface temperatures ; Soil temperature ; Solar radiation ; Spring wheat ; Studies ; Sunlight ; Surface temperature ; Temperature effects ; Temperature rise ; Triticum - growth & development ; Triticum - physiology ; Triticum aestivum ; Wheat ; Wheat yield ; Wind speed</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2017-11, Vol.12 (11), p.e0185690</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2017 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2017 Zhao et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2017 Zhao et al 2017 Zhao et al</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-53aa4ec8fffbcefb6f6ada5b6a7378decf78d0de8464dccb3be59568332f962c3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-53aa4ec8fffbcefb6f6ada5b6a7378decf78d0de8464dccb3be59568332f962c3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-8632-9784</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5669425/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5669425/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,864,885,2102,2928,23866,27924,27925,53791,53793</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29099842$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Ma, Wujun</contributor><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Junfang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pu, Feiyu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Yunpeng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Jingwen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Ning</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Yi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guo, Jianping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pan, Zhihua</creatorcontrib><title>Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.</description><subject>Agricultural production</subject><subject>Air temperature</subject><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>China</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Crop evapotranspiration</subject><subject>Crop production</subject><subject>Crop yield</subject><subject>Crop yields</subject><subject>Crops</subject><subject>Crops, Agricultural</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Environmental assessment</subject><subject>Evapotranspiration</subject><subject>Food supply</subject><subject>Global warming</subject><subject>Grain</subject><subject>Maximum temperatures</subject><subject>Minimum temperatures</subject><subject>Oryza</subject><subject>People and Places</subject><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Planting</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Regional climates</subject><subject>Relative humidity</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>Soil</subject><subject>Soil surface temperatures</subject><subject>Soil temperature</subject><subject>Solar radiation</subject><subject>Spring wheat</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Sunlight</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>Temperature effects</subject><subject>Temperature rise</subject><subject>Triticum - growth & development</subject><subject>Triticum - physiology</subject><subject>Triticum aestivum</subject><subject>Wheat</subject><subject>Wheat yield</subject><subject>Wind 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In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>29099842</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0185690</doi><tpages>e0185690</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8632-9784</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | PloS one, 2017-11, Vol.12 (11), p.e0185690 |
| issn | 1932-6203 1932-6203 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_plos_journals_1959661528 |
| source | MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; Public Library of Science (PLoS) Journals Open Access; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; PubMed Central; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry |
| subjects | Agricultural production Air temperature Analysis Biology and Life Sciences China Climate Climate change Computer simulation Crop evapotranspiration Crop production Crop yield Crop yields Crops Crops, Agricultural Earth Sciences Environmental assessment Evapotranspiration Food supply Global warming Grain Maximum temperatures Minimum temperatures Oryza People and Places Physical Sciences Planting Precipitation Rainfall Regional climates Relative humidity Seasons Soil Soil surface temperatures Soil temperature Solar radiation Spring wheat Studies Sunlight Surface temperature Temperature effects Temperature rise Triticum - growth & development Triticum - physiology Triticum aestivum Wheat Wheat yield Wind speed |
| title | Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China |
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