Impact of drought on crime in California: A synthetic control approach
Climate and weather have been linked to criminal activity. The connection between climatological conditions and crime is of growing importance as we seek to understand the societal implications of climate change. This study describes the mechanisms theorized to link annual variations in climate to c...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PloS one 2017-10, Vol.12 (10), p.e0185629-e0185629 |
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| description | Climate and weather have been linked to criminal activity. The connection between climatological conditions and crime is of growing importance as we seek to understand the societal implications of climate change. This study describes the mechanisms theorized to link annual variations in climate to crime in California and examines the effect of drought on statewide crime rates from 2011-2015. California has suffered severe drought since 2011, resulting in intensely dry winters and several of the hottest days on record. It is likely that the drought increased economic stress and shifted routine activities of the population, potentially increasing the likelihood of crime. We used a synthetic control method to estimate the impact of California's drought on both property and violent crimes. We found a significant increase in property crimes during the drought, but no effect on violent crimes. This result was robust to several sensitivity analyses, including a negative control. |
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The connection between climatological conditions and crime is of growing importance as we seek to understand the societal implications of climate change. This study describes the mechanisms theorized to link annual variations in climate to crime in California and examines the effect of drought on statewide crime rates from 2011-2015. California has suffered severe drought since 2011, resulting in intensely dry winters and several of the hottest days on record. It is likely that the drought increased economic stress and shifted routine activities of the population, potentially increasing the likelihood of crime. We used a synthetic control method to estimate the impact of California's drought on both property and violent crimes. We found a significant increase in property crimes during the drought, but no effect on violent crimes. This result was robust to several sensitivity analyses, including a negative control.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185629</identifier><identifier>PMID: 28977002</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Agricultural production ; Agriculture ; Annual variations ; California ; Census of Population ; Climate and weather ; Climate change ; Climatology ; Community ; Crime ; Criminal statistics ; Drought ; Droughts ; Earth Sciences ; Ecology and Environmental Sciences ; Epidemiology ; Farmers ; Groundwater ; Humans ; Humidity ; Internet ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Murders & murder attempts ; People and places ; Precipitation ; Public health ; Sensitivity analysis ; Social Sciences ; Studies ; Surcharges ; Victimization ; Violent crime ; Water shortages</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2017-10, Vol.12 (10), p.e0185629-e0185629</ispartof><rights>2017 Goin et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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The connection between climatological conditions and crime is of growing importance as we seek to understand the societal implications of climate change. This study describes the mechanisms theorized to link annual variations in climate to crime in California and examines the effect of drought on statewide crime rates from 2011-2015. California has suffered severe drought since 2011, resulting in intensely dry winters and several of the hottest days on record. It is likely that the drought increased economic stress and shifted routine activities of the population, potentially increasing the likelihood of crime. We used a synthetic control method to estimate the impact of California's drought on both property and violent crimes. We found a significant increase in property crimes during the drought, but no effect on violent crimes. 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| subjects | Agricultural production Agriculture Annual variations California Census of Population Climate and weather Climate change Climatology Community Crime Criminal statistics Drought Droughts Earth Sciences Ecology and Environmental Sciences Epidemiology Farmers Groundwater Humans Humidity Internet Medicine and Health Sciences Murders & murder attempts People and places Precipitation Public health Sensitivity analysis Social Sciences Studies Surcharges Victimization Violent crime Water shortages |
| title | Impact of drought on crime in California: A synthetic control approach |
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