Interactions between temperature and drought in global and regional crop yield variability during 1961-2014
Inter-annual crop yield variation is driven in large parts by climate variability, wherein the climate components of temperature and precipitation often play the biggest role. Nonlinear effects of temperature on yield as well as interactions among the climate variables have to be considered. Links b...
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| description | Inter-annual crop yield variation is driven in large parts by climate variability, wherein the climate components of temperature and precipitation often play the biggest role. Nonlinear effects of temperature on yield as well as interactions among the climate variables have to be considered. Links between climate and crop yield variability have been previously studied, both globally and at regional scales, but typically with additive models with no interactions, or when interactions were included, with implications not fully explained. In this study yearly country level yields of maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat of the top producing countries were combined with growing season temperature and SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) to determine interaction and intensification effects of climate variability on crop yield variability during 1961-2014. For maize, soybeans, and wheat, heat and dryness significantly reduced yields globally, while global effects for rice were not significant. But because of interactions, heat was more damaging in dry than in normal conditions for maize and wheat, and temperature effects were not significant in wet conditions for maize, soybeans, and wheat. Country yield responses to climate variability naturally differed between the top producing countries, but an accurate description of interaction effects at the country scale required sub-national data (shown only for the USA). Climate intensification, that is consecutive dry or warm years, reduced yields additionally in some cases, however, this might be linked to spillover effects of multiple growing seasons. Consequently, the effect of temperature on yields might be underestimated in dry conditions: While there were no significant global effects of temperature for maize and soybeans yields for average SPEI, the combined effects of high temperatures and drought significantly decreased yields of maize, soybeans, and wheat by 11.6, 12.4, and 9.2%, respectively. |
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Nonlinear effects of temperature on yield as well as interactions among the climate variables have to be considered. Links between climate and crop yield variability have been previously studied, both globally and at regional scales, but typically with additive models with no interactions, or when interactions were included, with implications not fully explained. In this study yearly country level yields of maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat of the top producing countries were combined with growing season temperature and SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) to determine interaction and intensification effects of climate variability on crop yield variability during 1961-2014. For maize, soybeans, and wheat, heat and dryness significantly reduced yields globally, while global effects for rice were not significant. But because of interactions, heat was more damaging in dry than in normal conditions for maize and wheat, and temperature effects were not significant in wet conditions for maize, soybeans, and wheat. Country yield responses to climate variability naturally differed between the top producing countries, but an accurate description of interaction effects at the country scale required sub-national data (shown only for the USA). Climate intensification, that is consecutive dry or warm years, reduced yields additionally in some cases, however, this might be linked to spillover effects of multiple growing seasons. Consequently, the effect of temperature on yields might be underestimated in dry conditions: While there were no significant global effects of temperature for maize and soybeans yields for average SPEI, the combined effects of high temperatures and drought significantly decreased yields of maize, soybeans, and wheat by 11.6, 12.4, and 9.2%, respectively.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0178339</identifier><identifier>PMID: 28552938</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Agricultural management ; Agricultural production ; Agriculture ; Amplification ; Analysis ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate effects ; Climate variability ; Climatic variability ; Corn ; Crop yield ; Crop yields ; Crops ; Crops, Agricultural ; Damage ; Drought ; Droughts ; Earth Sciences ; Environmental aspects ; Evapotranspiration ; Evapotranspiration-precipitation relationships ; Food ; Food supply ; Germany ; Growing season ; Harvest ; High temperature ; High temperatures ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Influence ; Legumes ; People and Places ; Precipitation ; Rainfall ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Rice ; Seasons ; Soybeans ; Temperature ; Temperature effects ; United States ; Variability ; Variables ; Water shortages ; Wheat</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2017-05, Vol.12 (5), p.e0178339-e0178339</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2017 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2017 Matiu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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Nonlinear effects of temperature on yield as well as interactions among the climate variables have to be considered. Links between climate and crop yield variability have been previously studied, both globally and at regional scales, but typically with additive models with no interactions, or when interactions were included, with implications not fully explained. In this study yearly country level yields of maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat of the top producing countries were combined with growing season temperature and SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) to determine interaction and intensification effects of climate variability on crop yield variability during 1961-2014. For maize, soybeans, and wheat, heat and dryness significantly reduced yields globally, while global effects for rice were not significant. But because of interactions, heat was more damaging in dry than in normal conditions for maize and wheat, and temperature effects were not significant in wet conditions for maize, soybeans, and wheat. Country yield responses to climate variability naturally differed between the top producing countries, but an accurate description of interaction effects at the country scale required sub-national data (shown only for the USA). Climate intensification, that is consecutive dry or warm years, reduced yields additionally in some cases, however, this might be linked to spillover effects of multiple growing seasons. Consequently, the effect of temperature on yields might be underestimated in dry conditions: While there were no significant global effects of temperature for maize and soybeans yields for average SPEI, the combined effects of high temperatures and drought significantly decreased yields of maize, soybeans, and wheat by 11.6, 12.4, and 9.2%, respectively.</description><subject>Agricultural management</subject><subject>Agricultural production</subject><subject>Agriculture</subject><subject>Amplification</subject><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate effects</subject><subject>Climate variability</subject><subject>Climatic variability</subject><subject>Corn</subject><subject>Crop yield</subject><subject>Crop yields</subject><subject>Crops</subject><subject>Crops, Agricultural</subject><subject>Damage</subject><subject>Drought</subject><subject>Droughts</subject><subject>Earth 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in global and regional crop yield variability during 1961-2014</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2017-05-26</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>12</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>e0178339</spage><epage>e0178339</epage><pages>e0178339-e0178339</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Inter-annual crop yield variation is driven in large parts by climate variability, wherein the climate components of temperature and precipitation often play the biggest role. Nonlinear effects of temperature on yield as well as interactions among the climate variables have to be considered. Links between climate and crop yield variability have been previously studied, both globally and at regional scales, but typically with additive models with no interactions, or when interactions were included, with implications not fully explained. In this study yearly country level yields of maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat of the top producing countries were combined with growing season temperature and SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) to determine interaction and intensification effects of climate variability on crop yield variability during 1961-2014. For maize, soybeans, and wheat, heat and dryness significantly reduced yields globally, while global effects for rice were not significant. But because of interactions, heat was more damaging in dry than in normal conditions for maize and wheat, and temperature effects were not significant in wet conditions for maize, soybeans, and wheat. Country yield responses to climate variability naturally differed between the top producing countries, but an accurate description of interaction effects at the country scale required sub-national data (shown only for the USA). Climate intensification, that is consecutive dry or warm years, reduced yields additionally in some cases, however, this might be linked to spillover effects of multiple growing seasons. Consequently, the effect of temperature on yields might be underestimated in dry conditions: While there were no significant global effects of temperature for maize and soybeans yields for average SPEI, the combined effects of high temperatures and drought significantly decreased yields of maize, soybeans, and wheat by 11.6, 12.4, and 9.2%, respectively.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>28552938</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0178339</doi><tpages>e0178339</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Agricultural management Agricultural production Agriculture Amplification Analysis Biology and Life Sciences Climate Climate change Climate effects Climate variability Climatic variability Corn Crop yield Crop yields Crops Crops, Agricultural Damage Drought Droughts Earth Sciences Environmental aspects Evapotranspiration Evapotranspiration-precipitation relationships Food Food supply Germany Growing season Harvest High temperature High temperatures History, 20th Century History, 21st Century Influence Legumes People and Places Precipitation Rainfall Research and Analysis Methods Rice Seasons Soybeans Temperature Temperature effects United States Variability Variables Water shortages Wheat |
| title | Interactions between temperature and drought in global and regional crop yield variability during 1961-2014 |
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