Bubbles Are Departures from Equilibrium Housing Markets: Evidence from Singapore and Taiwan
The housing prices in many Asian cities have grown rapidly since mid-2000s, leading to many reports of bubbles. However, such reports remain controversial as there is no widely accepted definition for a housing bubble. Previous studies have focused on indices, or assumed that home prices are lognoma...
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| creator | Tay, Darrell Jiajie Chou, Chung-I Li, Sai-Ping Tee, Shang You Cheong, Siew Ann |
| description | The housing prices in many Asian cities have grown rapidly since mid-2000s, leading to many reports of bubbles. However, such reports remain controversial as there is no widely accepted definition for a housing bubble. Previous studies have focused on indices, or assumed that home prices are lognomally distributed. Recently, Ohnishi et al. showed that the tail-end of the distribution of (Japan/Tokyo) becomes fatter during years where bubbles are suspected, but stop short of using this feature as a rigorous definition of a housing bubble. In this study, we look at housing transactions for Singapore (1995 to 2014) and Taiwan (2012 to 2014), and found strong evidence that the equilibrium home price distribution is a decaying exponential crossing over to a power law, after accounting for different housing types. We found positive deviations from the equilibrium distributions in Singapore condominiums and Zhu Zhai Da Lou in the Greater Taipei Area. These positive deviations are dragon kings, which thus provide us with an unambiguous and quantitative definition of housing bubbles. Also, the spatial-temporal dynamics show that bubble in Singapore is driven by price pulses in two investment districts. This finding provides a valuable insight for policymakers on implementation and evaluation of cooling measures. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0166004 |
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However, such reports remain controversial as there is no widely accepted definition for a housing bubble. Previous studies have focused on indices, or assumed that home prices are lognomally distributed. Recently, Ohnishi et al. showed that the tail-end of the distribution of (Japan/Tokyo) becomes fatter during years where bubbles are suspected, but stop short of using this feature as a rigorous definition of a housing bubble. In this study, we look at housing transactions for Singapore (1995 to 2014) and Taiwan (2012 to 2014), and found strong evidence that the equilibrium home price distribution is a decaying exponential crossing over to a power law, after accounting for different housing types. We found positive deviations from the equilibrium distributions in Singapore condominiums and Zhu Zhai Da Lou in the Greater Taipei Area. These positive deviations are dragon kings, which thus provide us with an unambiguous and quantitative definition of housing bubbles. Also, the spatial-temporal dynamics show that bubble in Singapore is driven by price pulses in two investment districts. This finding provides a valuable insight for policymakers on implementation and evaluation of cooling measures.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166004</identifier><identifier>PMID: 27812187</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Applied physics ; Bubbles ; Earth Sciences ; Equilibrium ; Housing ; Housing - economics ; People and Places ; Physical Sciences ; Pricing ; Random variables ; Residential buildings ; Singapore ; Social Sciences ; Spatial distribution ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Statistical mechanics ; Statistics as Topic ; Taiwan</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2016-11, Vol.11 (11), p.e0166004-e0166004</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2016 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2016 Tay et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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Also, the spatial-temporal dynamics show that bubble in Singapore is driven by price pulses in two investment districts. This finding provides a valuable insight for policymakers on implementation and evaluation of cooling measures.</description><subject>Applied physics</subject><subject>Bubbles</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Equilibrium</subject><subject>Housing</subject><subject>Housing - economics</subject><subject>People and Places</subject><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Pricing</subject><subject>Random variables</subject><subject>Residential buildings</subject><subject>Singapore</subject><subject>Social Sciences</subject><subject>Spatial distribution</subject><subject>Spatio-Temporal Analysis</subject><subject>Statistical mechanics</subject><subject>Statistics as Topic</subject><subject>Taiwan</subject><issn>1932-6203</issn><issn>1932-6203</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2016</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNqNk01v1DAQhiMEomXhHyCIhITgsIsdO3bCAWkpC12pqBItXDhYE3_suk3irZ0U-Pd42bTaoB4qH_wxz7z2zHiS5DlGM0w4fnfhet9CPdu4Vs8QZgwh-iA5xCXJpixD5OHe-iB5EsIFQjkpGHucHGS8wBku-GHy82NfVbUO6dzr9JPegO96H7fGuyZdXPW2tpW3fZMeuz7YdpV-BX-pu_A-XVxbpVupd-hZtMHGRRFoVXoO9he0T5NHBuqgnw3zJPn-eXF-dDw9Of2yPJqfTCXP8m5aMgQaCM5YiUEqnRlglFRgjEF5jhTPs1KzHFGgHDBnRFUVNghYKbGWtCCT5OVOd1O7IIa8BIELkpesLAiJxHJHKAcXYuNtA_6PcGDFvwPnVyIGbmWtheJSYoKoqjimqFQVYYxTJI1RRJOSRa0Pw2191Wglddt5qEeiY0tr12LlrkWOSsoZjwJvBgHvrnodOtHYIHVdQ6tjkuO7KaMoZ4TdAyVREPNY2Eny6j_07kQM1ApirLY1Lj5RbkXFnHJcoALjLTW7g4pD6cbK-N-Mjecjh7cjh8h0-ne3gj4EsTz7dn_29MeYfb3HrjXU3Tq4uu-sa8MYpDtQeheC1-a2HhiJbbvcZENs20UM7RLdXuzX8tbppj_IX1JIDp0</recordid><startdate>20161103</startdate><enddate>20161103</enddate><creator>Tay, Darrell Jiajie</creator><creator>Chou, Chung-I</creator><creator>Li, Sai-Ping</creator><creator>Tee, Shang You</creator><creator>Cheong, Siew Ann</creator><general>Public Library of Science</general><general>Public Library of Science (PLoS)</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>IOV</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QG</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7QO</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TM</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>D1I</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PDBOC</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>DOA</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1423-7557</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20161103</creationdate><title>Bubbles Are Departures from Equilibrium Housing Markets: Evidence from Singapore and Taiwan</title><author>Tay, Darrell Jiajie ; Chou, Chung-I ; Li, Sai-Ping ; Tee, Shang You ; Cheong, Siew Ann</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c725t-960aea312691acde2fa643bafff0550d7529e6504a47a1763dbb1f0a69c1ec483</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2016</creationdate><topic>Applied physics</topic><topic>Bubbles</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Equilibrium</topic><topic>Housing</topic><topic>Housing - 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| subjects | Applied physics Bubbles Earth Sciences Equilibrium Housing Housing - economics People and Places Physical Sciences Pricing Random variables Residential buildings Singapore Social Sciences Spatial distribution Spatio-Temporal Analysis Statistical mechanics Statistics as Topic Taiwan |
| title | Bubbles Are Departures from Equilibrium Housing Markets: Evidence from Singapore and Taiwan |
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