A Predictive Model for Assessing Surgery-Related Acute Kidney Injury Risk in Hypertensive Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious post-surgery complication; however, few preoperative risk models for AKI have been developed for hypertensive patients undergoing general surgery. Thus, in this study involving a large Chinese cohort, we developed and validated a risk model for surgery-related...

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Veröffentlicht in:PloS one 2016-11, Vol.11 (11), p.e0165280-e0165280
Hauptverfasser: Liu, Xing, Ye, Yongkai, Mi, Qi, Huang, Wei, He, Ting, Huang, Pin, Xu, Nana, Wu, Qiaoyu, Wang, Anli, Li, Ying, Yuan, Hong
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container_issue 11
container_start_page e0165280
container_title PloS one
container_volume 11
creator Liu, Xing
Ye, Yongkai
Mi, Qi
Huang, Wei
He, Ting
Huang, Pin
Xu, Nana
Wu, Qiaoyu
Wang, Anli
Li, Ying
Yuan, Hong
description Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious post-surgery complication; however, few preoperative risk models for AKI have been developed for hypertensive patients undergoing general surgery. Thus, in this study involving a large Chinese cohort, we developed and validated a risk model for surgery-related AKI using preoperative risk factors. This retrospective cohort study included 24,451 hypertensive patients aged ≥18 years who underwent general surgery between 2007 and 2015. The endpoints for AKI classification utilized by the KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) system were assessed. The most discriminative predictor was selected using Fisher scores and was subsequently used to construct a stepwise multivariate logistic regression model, whose performance was evaluated via comparisons with models used in other published works using the net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index. Surgery-related AKI developed in 1994 hospitalized patients (8.2%). The predictors identified by our Xiang-ya Model were age, gender, eGFR, NLR, pulmonary infection, prothrombin time, thrombin time, hemoglobin, uric acid, serum potassium, serum albumin, total cholesterol, and aspartate amino transferase. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the validation set and cross validation set were 0.87 (95% CI 0.86-0.89) and (0.89; 95% CI 0.88-0.90), respectively, and was therefore similar to the AUC for the training set (0.89; 95% CI 0.88-0.90). The optimal cutoff value was 0.09. Our model outperformed that developed by Kate et al., which exhibited an NRI of 31.38% (95% CI 25.7%-37.1%) and an IDI of 8% (95% CI 5.52%-10.50%) for patients who underwent cardiac surgery (n = 2101). We developed an AKI risk model based on preoperative risk factors and biomarkers that demonstrated good performance when predicting events in a large cohort of hypertensive patients who underwent general surgery.
doi_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pone.0165280
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Thus, in this study involving a large Chinese cohort, we developed and validated a risk model for surgery-related AKI using preoperative risk factors. This retrospective cohort study included 24,451 hypertensive patients aged ≥18 years who underwent general surgery between 2007 and 2015. The endpoints for AKI classification utilized by the KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) system were assessed. The most discriminative predictor was selected using Fisher scores and was subsequently used to construct a stepwise multivariate logistic regression model, whose performance was evaluated via comparisons with models used in other published works using the net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index. Surgery-related AKI developed in 1994 hospitalized patients (8.2%). The predictors identified by our Xiang-ya Model were age, gender, eGFR, NLR, pulmonary infection, prothrombin time, thrombin time, hemoglobin, uric acid, serum potassium, serum albumin, total cholesterol, and aspartate amino transferase. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the validation set and cross validation set were 0.87 (95% CI 0.86-0.89) and (0.89; 95% CI 0.88-0.90), respectively, and was therefore similar to the AUC for the training set (0.89; 95% CI 0.88-0.90). The optimal cutoff value was 0.09. Our model outperformed that developed by Kate et al., which exhibited an NRI of 31.38% (95% CI 25.7%-37.1%) and an IDI of 8% (95% CI 5.52%-10.50%) for patients who underwent cardiac surgery (n = 2101). We developed an AKI risk model based on preoperative risk factors and biomarkers that demonstrated good performance when predicting events in a large cohort of hypertensive patients who underwent general surgery.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0165280</identifier><identifier>PMID: 27802302</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Acute Kidney Injury - blood ; Acute Kidney Injury - etiology ; Adult ; Aged ; Albumin ; Area Under Curve ; Aspartate ; Biomarkers ; Biomarkers - blood ; Blood tests ; Cardiology ; Cardiovascular disease ; Cholesterol ; Chronic illnesses ; Cohort analysis ; Cytokines ; Diabetes ; Epidermal growth factor receptors ; Family medical history ; Female ; Health aspects ; Health risks ; Heart diseases ; Heart failure ; Heart surgery ; Hemoglobin ; Hemoglobins ; Hospital patients ; Hospitalization ; Hospitals ; Humans ; Hypertension ; Hypertension - blood ; Hypertension - complications ; Hypertension - surgery ; Kidney diseases ; Kidneys ; Laboratories ; Male ; Medical research ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Middle Aged ; Neutrophils ; Patients ; Performance prediction ; Pharmacology ; Physical Sciences ; Postoperative Complications - blood ; Postoperative Complications - etiology ; Potassium ; Prediction models ; Prothrombin ; Reclassification ; Regression models ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk analysis ; Risk assessment ; Risk Factors ; ROC Curve ; Serum albumin ; Surgery ; Surgical Procedures, Operative - adverse effects ; Thrombin ; Treatment Outcome ; Uric acid ; Urine</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2016-11, Vol.11 (11), p.e0165280-e0165280</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2016 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2016 Liu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2016 Liu et al 2016 Liu et al</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c795t-652f9aed3f4b5f5eec1261e8161c11f227a779df53b5d417a37feeb8a897d4b03</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c795t-652f9aed3f4b5f5eec1261e8161c11f227a779df53b5d417a37feeb8a897d4b03</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5089779/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5089779/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,860,881,2096,2915,23845,27901,27902,53766,53768,79342,79343</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27802302$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Liu, Xing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ye, Yongkai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mi, Qi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Huang, Wei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>He, Ting</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Huang, Pin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Nana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wu, Qiaoyu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Anli</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Ying</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yuan, Hong</creatorcontrib><title>A Predictive Model for Assessing Surgery-Related Acute Kidney Injury Risk in Hypertensive Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious post-surgery complication; however, few preoperative risk models for AKI have been developed for hypertensive patients undergoing general surgery. Thus, in this study involving a large Chinese cohort, we developed and validated a risk model for surgery-related AKI using preoperative risk factors. This retrospective cohort study included 24,451 hypertensive patients aged ≥18 years who underwent general surgery between 2007 and 2015. The endpoints for AKI classification utilized by the KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) system were assessed. The most discriminative predictor was selected using Fisher scores and was subsequently used to construct a stepwise multivariate logistic regression model, whose performance was evaluated via comparisons with models used in other published works using the net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index. Surgery-related AKI developed in 1994 hospitalized patients (8.2%). The predictors identified by our Xiang-ya Model were age, gender, eGFR, NLR, pulmonary infection, prothrombin time, thrombin time, hemoglobin, uric acid, serum potassium, serum albumin, total cholesterol, and aspartate amino transferase. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the validation set and cross validation set were 0.87 (95% CI 0.86-0.89) and (0.89; 95% CI 0.88-0.90), respectively, and was therefore similar to the AUC for the training set (0.89; 95% CI 0.88-0.90). The optimal cutoff value was 0.09. Our model outperformed that developed by Kate et al., which exhibited an NRI of 31.38% (95% CI 25.7%-37.1%) and an IDI of 8% (95% CI 5.52%-10.50%) for patients who underwent cardiac surgery (n = 2101). We developed an AKI risk model based on preoperative risk factors and biomarkers that demonstrated good performance when predicting events in a large cohort of hypertensive patients who underwent general surgery.</description><subject>Acute Kidney Injury - blood</subject><subject>Acute Kidney Injury - etiology</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Albumin</subject><subject>Area Under Curve</subject><subject>Aspartate</subject><subject>Biomarkers</subject><subject>Biomarkers - blood</subject><subject>Blood tests</subject><subject>Cardiology</subject><subject>Cardiovascular disease</subject><subject>Cholesterol</subject><subject>Chronic illnesses</subject><subject>Cohort analysis</subject><subject>Cytokines</subject><subject>Diabetes</subject><subject>Epidermal growth factor receptors</subject><subject>Family medical history</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Health aspects</subject><subject>Health risks</subject><subject>Heart diseases</subject><subject>Heart failure</subject><subject>Heart surgery</subject><subject>Hemoglobin</subject><subject>Hemoglobins</subject><subject>Hospital patients</subject><subject>Hospitalization</subject><subject>Hospitals</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Hypertension</subject><subject>Hypertension - blood</subject><subject>Hypertension - complications</subject><subject>Hypertension - surgery</subject><subject>Kidney diseases</subject><subject>Kidneys</subject><subject>Laboratories</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medical research</subject><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Neutrophils</subject><subject>Patients</subject><subject>Performance prediction</subject><subject>Pharmacology</subject><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Postoperative Complications - blood</subject><subject>Postoperative Complications - etiology</subject><subject>Potassium</subject><subject>Prediction models</subject><subject>Prothrombin</subject><subject>Reclassification</subject><subject>Regression models</subject><subject>Research and Analysis Methods</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>Risk analysis</subject><subject>Risk assessment</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>ROC Curve</subject><subject>Serum albumin</subject><subject>Surgery</subject><subject>Surgical Procedures, Operative - 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Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Liu, Xing</au><au>Ye, Yongkai</au><au>Mi, Qi</au><au>Huang, Wei</au><au>He, Ting</au><au>Huang, Pin</au><au>Xu, Nana</au><au>Wu, Qiaoyu</au><au>Wang, Anli</au><au>Li, Ying</au><au>Yuan, Hong</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>A Predictive Model for Assessing Surgery-Related Acute Kidney Injury Risk in Hypertensive Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2016-11-01</date><risdate>2016</risdate><volume>11</volume><issue>11</issue><spage>e0165280</spage><epage>e0165280</epage><pages>e0165280-e0165280</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious post-surgery complication; however, few preoperative risk models for AKI have been developed for hypertensive patients undergoing general surgery. Thus, in this study involving a large Chinese cohort, we developed and validated a risk model for surgery-related AKI using preoperative risk factors. This retrospective cohort study included 24,451 hypertensive patients aged ≥18 years who underwent general surgery between 2007 and 2015. The endpoints for AKI classification utilized by the KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) system were assessed. The most discriminative predictor was selected using Fisher scores and was subsequently used to construct a stepwise multivariate logistic regression model, whose performance was evaluated via comparisons with models used in other published works using the net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index. Surgery-related AKI developed in 1994 hospitalized patients (8.2%). The predictors identified by our Xiang-ya Model were age, gender, eGFR, NLR, pulmonary infection, prothrombin time, thrombin time, hemoglobin, uric acid, serum potassium, serum albumin, total cholesterol, and aspartate amino transferase. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the validation set and cross validation set were 0.87 (95% CI 0.86-0.89) and (0.89; 95% CI 0.88-0.90), respectively, and was therefore similar to the AUC for the training set (0.89; 95% CI 0.88-0.90). The optimal cutoff value was 0.09. Our model outperformed that developed by Kate et al., which exhibited an NRI of 31.38% (95% CI 25.7%-37.1%) and an IDI of 8% (95% CI 5.52%-10.50%) for patients who underwent cardiac surgery (n = 2101). We developed an AKI risk model based on preoperative risk factors and biomarkers that demonstrated good performance when predicting events in a large cohort of hypertensive patients who underwent general surgery.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>27802302</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0165280</doi><tpages>e0165280</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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1932-6203
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subjects Acute Kidney Injury - blood
Acute Kidney Injury - etiology
Adult
Aged
Albumin
Area Under Curve
Aspartate
Biomarkers
Biomarkers - blood
Blood tests
Cardiology
Cardiovascular disease
Cholesterol
Chronic illnesses
Cohort analysis
Cytokines
Diabetes
Epidermal growth factor receptors
Family medical history
Female
Health aspects
Health risks
Heart diseases
Heart failure
Heart surgery
Hemoglobin
Hemoglobins
Hospital patients
Hospitalization
Hospitals
Humans
Hypertension
Hypertension - blood
Hypertension - complications
Hypertension - surgery
Kidney diseases
Kidneys
Laboratories
Male
Medical research
Medicine and Health Sciences
Middle Aged
Neutrophils
Patients
Performance prediction
Pharmacology
Physical Sciences
Postoperative Complications - blood
Postoperative Complications - etiology
Potassium
Prediction models
Prothrombin
Reclassification
Regression models
Research and Analysis Methods
Retrospective Studies
Risk analysis
Risk assessment
Risk Factors
ROC Curve
Serum albumin
Surgery
Surgical Procedures, Operative - adverse effects
Thrombin
Treatment Outcome
Uric acid
Urine
title A Predictive Model for Assessing Surgery-Related Acute Kidney Injury Risk in Hypertensive Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study
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