Age, Spatial, and Temporal Variations in Hospital Admissions with Malaria in Kilifi County, Kenya: A 25-Year Longitudinal Observational Study

Encouraging progress has been seen with reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in some parts of Africa. Reduced transmission might lead to increasing susceptibility to malaria among older children due to lower acquired immunity, and this has implications for ongoing control strateg...

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Veröffentlicht in:PLoS medicine 2016-06, Vol.13 (6), p.e1002047-e1002047
Hauptverfasser: Mogeni, Polycarp, Williams, Thomas N, Fegan, Gregory, Nyundo, Christopher, Bauni, Evasius, Mwai, Kennedy, Omedo, Irene, Njuguna, Patricia, Newton, Charles R, Osier, Faith, Berkley, James A, Hammitt, Laura L, Lowe, Brett, Mwambingu, Gabriel, Awuondo, Ken, Mturi, Neema, Peshu, Norbert, Snow, Robert W, Noor, Abdisalan, Marsh, Kevin, Bejon, Philip
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container_end_page e1002047
container_issue 6
container_start_page e1002047
container_title PLoS medicine
container_volume 13
creator Mogeni, Polycarp
Williams, Thomas N
Fegan, Gregory
Nyundo, Christopher
Bauni, Evasius
Mwai, Kennedy
Omedo, Irene
Njuguna, Patricia
Newton, Charles R
Osier, Faith
Berkley, James A
Hammitt, Laura L
Lowe, Brett
Mwambingu, Gabriel
Awuondo, Ken
Mturi, Neema
Peshu, Norbert
Snow, Robert W
Noor, Abdisalan
Marsh, Kevin
Bejon, Philip
description Encouraging progress has been seen with reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in some parts of Africa. Reduced transmission might lead to increasing susceptibility to malaria among older children due to lower acquired immunity, and this has implications for ongoing control strategies. We conducted a longitudinal observational study of children admitted to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya and linked it to data on residence and insecticide-treated net (ITN) use. This included data from 69,104 children aged from 3 mo to 13 y admitted to Kilifi County Hospital between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2014. The variation in malaria slide positivity among admissions was examined in logistic regression models using the following predictors: location of the residence, calendar time, the child's age, ITN use, and the enhanced vegetation index (a proxy for soil moisture). The proportion of malaria slide-positive admissions declined from 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.58) in 1998 to 0.07 (95% CI 0.06-0.08) in 2009 but then increased again through to 0.24 (95% CI 0.22-0.25) in 2014. Older children accounted for most of the increase after 2009 (0.035 [95% CI 0.030-0.040] among young children compared to 0.22 [95% CI 0.21-0.23] in older children). There was a nonlinear relationship between malaria risk and prevalence of ITN use within a 2 km radius of an admitted child's residence such that the predicted malaria positive fraction varied from ~0.4 to
doi_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002047
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Reduced transmission might lead to increasing susceptibility to malaria among older children due to lower acquired immunity, and this has implications for ongoing control strategies. We conducted a longitudinal observational study of children admitted to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya and linked it to data on residence and insecticide-treated net (ITN) use. This included data from 69,104 children aged from 3 mo to 13 y admitted to Kilifi County Hospital between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2014. The variation in malaria slide positivity among admissions was examined in logistic regression models using the following predictors: location of the residence, calendar time, the child's age, ITN use, and the enhanced vegetation index (a proxy for soil moisture). The proportion of malaria slide-positive admissions declined from 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.58) in 1998 to 0.07 (95% CI 0.06-0.08) in 2009 but then increased again through to 0.24 (95% CI 0.22-0.25) in 2014. Older children accounted for most of the increase after 2009 (0.035 [95% CI 0.030-0.040] among young children compared to 0.22 [95% CI 0.21-0.23] in older children). There was a nonlinear relationship between malaria risk and prevalence of ITN use within a 2 km radius of an admitted child's residence such that the predicted malaria positive fraction varied from ~0.4 to &lt;0.1 as the prevalence of ITN use varied from 20% to 80%. In this observational analysis, we were unable to determine the cause of the decline in malaria between 1998 and 2009, which pre-dated the dramatic scale-up in ITN distribution and use. Following a period of reduced transmission, a cohort of older children emerged who have increased susceptibility to malaria. Further reductions in malaria transmission are needed to mitigate the increasing burden among older children, and universal ITN coverage is a promising strategy to achieve this goal.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1549-1676</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1549-1277</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1549-1676</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002047</identifier><identifier>PMID: 27352303</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Age ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Children &amp; youth ; Confidence intervals ; Female ; Funding ; Hospital admission and discharge ; Hospitalization - statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hospitalization - trends ; Humans ; Infant ; Insecticide-Treated Bednets - statistics &amp; numerical data ; Insecticides ; Kenya - epidemiology ; Logistics ; Longitudinal Studies ; Malaria ; Malaria - epidemiology ; Malaria - parasitology ; Male ; Management ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Mosquito Control - statistics &amp; numerical data ; Parasites ; People and Places ; Plasmodium falciparum ; Prevalence ; Researchers ; Risk ; Risk factors ; Studies ; Surveillance ; Trends</subject><ispartof>PLoS medicine, 2016-06, Vol.13 (6), p.e1002047-e1002047</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2016 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2016 Public Library of Science. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited: Mogeni P, Williams TN, Fegan G, Nyundo C, Bauni E, Mwai K, et al. (2016) Age, Spatial, and Temporal Variations in Hospital Admissions with Malaria in Kilifi County, Kenya: A 25-Year Longitudinal Observational Study. PLoS Med 13(6): e1002047. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002047</rights><rights>2016 Mogeni et al 2016 Mogeni et al</rights><rights>2016 Public Library of Science. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited: Mogeni P, Williams TN, Fegan G, Nyundo C, Bauni E, Mwai K, et al. (2016) Age, Spatial, and Temporal Variations in Hospital Admissions with Malaria in Kilifi County, Kenya: A 25-Year Longitudinal Observational Study. 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Older children accounted for most of the increase after 2009 (0.035 [95% CI 0.030-0.040] among young children compared to 0.22 [95% CI 0.21-0.23] in older children). There was a nonlinear relationship between malaria risk and prevalence of ITN use within a 2 km radius of an admitted child's residence such that the predicted malaria positive fraction varied from ~0.4 to &lt;0.1 as the prevalence of ITN use varied from 20% to 80%. In this observational analysis, we were unable to determine the cause of the decline in malaria between 1998 and 2009, which pre-dated the dramatic scale-up in ITN distribution and use. Following a period of reduced transmission, a cohort of older children emerged who have increased susceptibility to malaria. 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Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health &amp; Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health &amp; Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><collection>PLoS Medicine</collection><jtitle>PLoS medicine</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Mogeni, Polycarp</au><au>Williams, Thomas N</au><au>Fegan, Gregory</au><au>Nyundo, Christopher</au><au>Bauni, Evasius</au><au>Mwai, Kennedy</au><au>Omedo, Irene</au><au>Njuguna, Patricia</au><au>Newton, Charles R</au><au>Osier, Faith</au><au>Berkley, James A</au><au>Hammitt, Laura L</au><au>Lowe, Brett</au><au>Mwambingu, Gabriel</au><au>Awuondo, Ken</au><au>Mturi, Neema</au><au>Peshu, Norbert</au><au>Snow, Robert W</au><au>Noor, Abdisalan</au><au>Marsh, Kevin</au><au>Bejon, Philip</au><au>Grais, Rebecca Freeman</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Age, Spatial, and Temporal Variations in Hospital Admissions with Malaria in Kilifi County, Kenya: A 25-Year Longitudinal Observational Study</atitle><jtitle>PLoS medicine</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS Med</addtitle><date>2016-06-28</date><risdate>2016</risdate><volume>13</volume><issue>6</issue><spage>e1002047</spage><epage>e1002047</epage><pages>e1002047-e1002047</pages><issn>1549-1676</issn><issn>1549-1277</issn><eissn>1549-1676</eissn><abstract>Encouraging progress has been seen with reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in some parts of Africa. Reduced transmission might lead to increasing susceptibility to malaria among older children due to lower acquired immunity, and this has implications for ongoing control strategies. We conducted a longitudinal observational study of children admitted to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya and linked it to data on residence and insecticide-treated net (ITN) use. This included data from 69,104 children aged from 3 mo to 13 y admitted to Kilifi County Hospital between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2014. The variation in malaria slide positivity among admissions was examined in logistic regression models using the following predictors: location of the residence, calendar time, the child's age, ITN use, and the enhanced vegetation index (a proxy for soil moisture). The proportion of malaria slide-positive admissions declined from 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.58) in 1998 to 0.07 (95% CI 0.06-0.08) in 2009 but then increased again through to 0.24 (95% CI 0.22-0.25) in 2014. Older children accounted for most of the increase after 2009 (0.035 [95% CI 0.030-0.040] among young children compared to 0.22 [95% CI 0.21-0.23] in older children). There was a nonlinear relationship between malaria risk and prevalence of ITN use within a 2 km radius of an admitted child's residence such that the predicted malaria positive fraction varied from ~0.4 to &lt;0.1 as the prevalence of ITN use varied from 20% to 80%. In this observational analysis, we were unable to determine the cause of the decline in malaria between 1998 and 2009, which pre-dated the dramatic scale-up in ITN distribution and use. Following a period of reduced transmission, a cohort of older children emerged who have increased susceptibility to malaria. Further reductions in malaria transmission are needed to mitigate the increasing burden among older children, and universal ITN coverage is a promising strategy to achieve this goal.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>27352303</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pmed.1002047</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8038-3894</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4422-8627</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2663-2765</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7757-7516</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9276-8759</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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identifier ISSN: 1549-1676
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issn 1549-1676
1549-1277
1549-1676
language eng
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subjects Adolescent
Age
Biology and Life Sciences
Child
Child, Preschool
Children & youth
Confidence intervals
Female
Funding
Hospital admission and discharge
Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data
Hospitalization - trends
Humans
Infant
Insecticide-Treated Bednets - statistics & numerical data
Insecticides
Kenya - epidemiology
Logistics
Longitudinal Studies
Malaria
Malaria - epidemiology
Malaria - parasitology
Male
Management
Medicine and Health Sciences
Mosquito Control - statistics & numerical data
Parasites
People and Places
Plasmodium falciparum
Prevalence
Researchers
Risk
Risk factors
Studies
Surveillance
Trends
title Age, Spatial, and Temporal Variations in Hospital Admissions with Malaria in Kilifi County, Kenya: A 25-Year Longitudinal Observational Study
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