Use of Cusp Catastrophe for Risk Analysis of Navigational Environment: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area
A water traffic system is a huge, nonlinear, complex system, and its stability is affected by various factors. Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastro...
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| creator | Jiang, Dan Hao, Guozhu Huang, Liwen Zhang, Dan |
| description | A water traffic system is a huge, nonlinear, complex system, and its stability is affected by various factors. Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastrophe theory, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate statistics are integrated to establish a situation recognition model for a navigational environment with the aim of performing a quantitative analysis of the situation of this environment via the extraction and classification of its key influencing factors; in this model, the natural environment and traffic environment are considered to be two control variables. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River is considered as an example, and six critical factors, i.e., the visibility, wind, current velocity, route intersection, channel dimension, and traffic flow, are classified into two principal components: the natural environment and traffic environment. These two components are assumed to have the greatest influence on the navigation risk. Then, the cusp catastrophe model is employed to identify the safety situation of the regional navigational environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The simulation results indicate that the situation of the navigational environment of this area is gradually worsening from downstream to upstream. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0158482 |
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Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastrophe theory, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate statistics are integrated to establish a situation recognition model for a navigational environment with the aim of performing a quantitative analysis of the situation of this environment via the extraction and classification of its key influencing factors; in this model, the natural environment and traffic environment are considered to be two control variables. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River is considered as an example, and six critical factors, i.e., the visibility, wind, current velocity, route intersection, channel dimension, and traffic flow, are classified into two principal components: the natural environment and traffic environment. These two components are assumed to have the greatest influence on the navigation risk. Then, the cusp catastrophe model is employed to identify the safety situation of the regional navigational environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The simulation results indicate that the situation of the navigational environment of this area is gradually worsening from downstream to upstream.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0158482</identifier><identifier>PMID: 27391057</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Canyons ; Case reports ; Case studies ; Catastrophe theory ; Computer and Information Sciences ; Computer simulation ; Earth Sciences ; Ecological risk assessment ; Engineering and Technology ; Environmental aspects ; Environments ; Freshwater ; Laboratories ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Methods ; Models, Theoretical ; Multivariate Analysis ; Mutation ; Natural environment ; Occupational safety ; Physical Sciences ; Principal Component Analysis ; Principal components analysis ; Protein transport ; Quantitative analysis ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Reservoirs ; Reservoirs (Water) ; Risk analysis ; Risk assessment ; Risk Assessment - methods ; Rivers ; Statistical analysis ; System theory ; Traffic accidents ; Traffic accidents & safety ; Traffic flow ; Variables</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2016-07, Vol.11 (7), p.e0158482-e0158482</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2016 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2016 Jiang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastrophe theory, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate statistics are integrated to establish a situation recognition model for a navigational environment with the aim of performing a quantitative analysis of the situation of this environment via the extraction and classification of its key influencing factors; in this model, the natural environment and traffic environment are considered to be two control variables. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River is considered as an example, and six critical factors, i.e., the visibility, wind, current velocity, route intersection, channel dimension, and traffic flow, are classified into two principal components: the natural environment and traffic environment. These two components are assumed to have the greatest influence on the navigation risk. Then, the cusp catastrophe model is employed to identify the safety situation of the regional navigational environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The simulation results indicate that the situation of the navigational environment of this area is gradually worsening from downstream to upstream.</description><subject>Canyons</subject><subject>Case reports</subject><subject>Case studies</subject><subject>Catastrophe theory</subject><subject>Computer and Information Sciences</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Ecological risk assessment</subject><subject>Engineering and Technology</subject><subject>Environmental aspects</subject><subject>Environments</subject><subject>Freshwater</subject><subject>Laboratories</subject><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subject>Methods</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Multivariate Analysis</subject><subject>Mutation</subject><subject>Natural environment</subject><subject>Occupational safety</subject><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Principal Component Analysis</subject><subject>Principal components analysis</subject><subject>Protein transport</subject><subject>Quantitative analysis</subject><subject>Research and Analysis Methods</subject><subject>Reservoirs</subject><subject>Reservoirs (Water)</subject><subject>Risk analysis</subject><subject>Risk assessment</subject><subject>Risk Assessment - 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Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastrophe theory, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate statistics are integrated to establish a situation recognition model for a navigational environment with the aim of performing a quantitative analysis of the situation of this environment via the extraction and classification of its key influencing factors; in this model, the natural environment and traffic environment are considered to be two control variables. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River is considered as an example, and six critical factors, i.e., the visibility, wind, current velocity, route intersection, channel dimension, and traffic flow, are classified into two principal components: the natural environment and traffic environment. These two components are assumed to have the greatest influence on the navigation risk. Then, the cusp catastrophe model is employed to identify the safety situation of the regional navigational environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The simulation results indicate that the situation of the navigational environment of this area is gradually worsening from downstream to upstream.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>27391057</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0158482</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2872-2964</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Canyons Case reports Case studies Catastrophe theory Computer and Information Sciences Computer simulation Earth Sciences Ecological risk assessment Engineering and Technology Environmental aspects Environments Freshwater Laboratories Medicine and Health Sciences Methods Models, Theoretical Multivariate Analysis Mutation Natural environment Occupational safety Physical Sciences Principal Component Analysis Principal components analysis Protein transport Quantitative analysis Research and Analysis Methods Reservoirs Reservoirs (Water) Risk analysis Risk assessment Risk Assessment - methods Rivers Statistical analysis System theory Traffic accidents Traffic accidents & safety Traffic flow Variables |
| title | Use of Cusp Catastrophe for Risk Analysis of Navigational Environment: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area |
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