Weekly Fluctuations in Risk Tolerance and Voting Behaviour
Risk tolerance is fundamental to decision-making and behaviour. Here we show that individuals' tolerance of risk follows a weekly cycle. We observed this cycle directly in a behavioural experiment using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002; Study 1). We also observed it indirectl...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PloS one 2016-07, Vol.11 (7), p.e0159017-e0159017 |
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| creator | Sanders, Jet G Jenkins, Rob |
| description | Risk tolerance is fundamental to decision-making and behaviour. Here we show that individuals' tolerance of risk follows a weekly cycle. We observed this cycle directly in a behavioural experiment using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002; Study 1). We also observed it indirectly via voting intentions, gathered from 81,564 responses across 70 opinion polls ahead of the Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014 (Study 2) and 149,064 responses across 77 opinion polls ahead of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum of 2016 (Study 3). In all three studies, risk-tolerance decreased from Monday to Thursday before returning to a higher level on Friday. This pattern is politically significant because UK elections and referendums are traditionally held on a Thursday-the lowest point for risk tolerance. In particular, it raises the possibility that voting outcomes in the UK could be systematically risk-averse. In line with our analysis, the actual proportion of Yes votes in the Scottish Independence Referendum was 4% lower than forecast. Taken together, our findings reveal that the seven-day weekly cycle may have unexpected consequences for human decision-making. They also suggest that the day on which a vote is held could determine its outcome. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0159017 |
| format | Article |
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Here we show that individuals' tolerance of risk follows a weekly cycle. We observed this cycle directly in a behavioural experiment using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002; Study 1). We also observed it indirectly via voting intentions, gathered from 81,564 responses across 70 opinion polls ahead of the Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014 (Study 2) and 149,064 responses across 77 opinion polls ahead of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum of 2016 (Study 3). In all three studies, risk-tolerance decreased from Monday to Thursday before returning to a higher level on Friday. This pattern is politically significant because UK elections and referendums are traditionally held on a Thursday-the lowest point for risk tolerance. In particular, it raises the possibility that voting outcomes in the UK could be systematically risk-averse. In line with our analysis, the actual proportion of Yes votes in the Scottish Independence Referendum was 4% lower than forecast. Taken together, our findings reveal that the seven-day weekly cycle may have unexpected consequences for human decision-making. They also suggest that the day on which a vote is held could determine its outcome.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159017</identifier><identifier>PMID: 27392020</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Adult ; Attitudes ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Cognition & reasoning ; Conservatism ; Decision Making ; Earnings ; Elections ; EU membership ; Female ; Humans ; Independence ; Labor unions ; Laboratories ; Male ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Models, Theoretical ; Opinion polls ; Parliamentary elections ; People and places ; Personality ; Political aspects ; Politics ; Public opinion surveys ; Referendums ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Risk ; Risk aversion ; Risk Factors ; Social Behavior ; Social Sciences ; Time Factors ; Tolerance ; Union membership ; United Kingdom ; Variation ; Voter behavior ; Voting</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2016-07, Vol.11 (7), p.e0159017-e0159017</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2016 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2016 Sanders, Jenkins. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 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Here we show that individuals' tolerance of risk follows a weekly cycle. We observed this cycle directly in a behavioural experiment using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002; Study 1). We also observed it indirectly via voting intentions, gathered from 81,564 responses across 70 opinion polls ahead of the Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014 (Study 2) and 149,064 responses across 77 opinion polls ahead of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum of 2016 (Study 3). In all three studies, risk-tolerance decreased from Monday to Thursday before returning to a higher level on Friday. This pattern is politically significant because UK elections and referendums are traditionally held on a Thursday-the lowest point for risk tolerance. In particular, it raises the possibility that voting outcomes in the UK could be systematically risk-averse. In line with our analysis, the actual proportion of Yes votes in the Scottish Independence Referendum was 4% lower than forecast. Taken together, our findings reveal that the seven-day weekly cycle may have unexpected consequences for human decision-making. They also suggest that the day on which a vote is held could determine its outcome.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Attitudes</subject><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Cognition & reasoning</subject><subject>Conservatism</subject><subject>Decision Making</subject><subject>Earnings</subject><subject>Elections</subject><subject>EU membership</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Independence</subject><subject>Labor unions</subject><subject>Laboratories</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Opinion polls</subject><subject>Parliamentary elections</subject><subject>People and places</subject><subject>Personality</subject><subject>Political aspects</subject><subject>Politics</subject><subject>Public opinion surveys</subject><subject>Referendums</subject><subject>Research and Analysis 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One</addtitle><date>2016-07-08</date><risdate>2016</risdate><volume>11</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>e0159017</spage><epage>e0159017</epage><pages>e0159017-e0159017</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Risk tolerance is fundamental to decision-making and behaviour. Here we show that individuals' tolerance of risk follows a weekly cycle. We observed this cycle directly in a behavioural experiment using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002; Study 1). We also observed it indirectly via voting intentions, gathered from 81,564 responses across 70 opinion polls ahead of the Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014 (Study 2) and 149,064 responses across 77 opinion polls ahead of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum of 2016 (Study 3). In all three studies, risk-tolerance decreased from Monday to Thursday before returning to a higher level on Friday. This pattern is politically significant because UK elections and referendums are traditionally held on a Thursday-the lowest point for risk tolerance. In particular, it raises the possibility that voting outcomes in the UK could be systematically risk-averse. In line with our analysis, the actual proportion of Yes votes in the Scottish Independence Referendum was 4% lower than forecast. Taken together, our findings reveal that the seven-day weekly cycle may have unexpected consequences for human decision-making. They also suggest that the day on which a vote is held could determine its outcome.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>27392020</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0159017</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adolescent Adult Attitudes Biology and Life Sciences Cognition & reasoning Conservatism Decision Making Earnings Elections EU membership Female Humans Independence Labor unions Laboratories Male Medicine and Health Sciences Models, Theoretical Opinion polls Parliamentary elections People and places Personality Political aspects Politics Public opinion surveys Referendums Research and Analysis Methods Risk Risk aversion Risk Factors Social Behavior Social Sciences Time Factors Tolerance Union membership United Kingdom Variation Voter behavior Voting |
| title | Weekly Fluctuations in Risk Tolerance and Voting Behaviour |
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