Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage
Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with cons...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PloS one 2015-07, Vol.10 (7), p.e0133071-e0133071 |
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| creator | Magrach, Ainhoa Ghazoul, Jaboury |
| description | Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0133071 |
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This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0133071</identifier><identifier>PMID: 26177201</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Africa ; Agriculture - trends ; Animals ; Asia ; Biodiversity ; Borers ; Carbon ; Carbon - chemistry ; Carbon capture and storage ; Carbon sequestration ; Carbon storage ; Climate Change ; Coffea - growth & development ; Coffea - parasitology ; Coffea arabica ; Coffee ; Coffee industry ; Coffee production ; Coleoptera - physiology ; Crops ; Cultivation ; Ecosystem ; Ecosystem services ; Ecosystems ; Encroachment ; Environmental changes ; Forest ecosystems ; Forests ; Fruits ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Pests ; Plantations ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Rainfall ; South America ; Storage ; Terrestrial ecosystems ; Threatened species ; Trees - growth & development ; Trees - parasitology ; Wildlife conservation</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2015-07, Vol.10 (7), p.e0133071-e0133071</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2015 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2015 Magrach, Ghazoul. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2015 Magrach, Ghazoul 2015 Magrach, Ghazoul</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-fc0c9608db78b739cebfd1d1f1317bdf25aae64147db65e138a0fcfaff8f05463</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-fc0c9608db78b739cebfd1d1f1317bdf25aae64147db65e138a0fcfaff8f05463</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4503344/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4503344/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,860,881,2095,2914,23846,27903,27904,53769,53771,79346,79347</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26177201$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Moreira, Francisco</contributor><creatorcontrib>Magrach, Ainhoa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ghazoul, Jaboury</creatorcontrib><title>Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes.</description><subject>Africa</subject><subject>Agriculture - trends</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Asia</subject><subject>Biodiversity</subject><subject>Borers</subject><subject>Carbon</subject><subject>Carbon - chemistry</subject><subject>Carbon capture and storage</subject><subject>Carbon sequestration</subject><subject>Carbon storage</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>Coffea - growth & development</subject><subject>Coffea - parasitology</subject><subject>Coffea arabica</subject><subject>Coffee</subject><subject>Coffee industry</subject><subject>Coffee production</subject><subject>Coleoptera - physiology</subject><subject>Crops</subject><subject>Cultivation</subject><subject>Ecosystem</subject><subject>Ecosystem services</subject><subject>Ecosystems</subject><subject>Encroachment</subject><subject>Environmental changes</subject><subject>Forest ecosystems</subject><subject>Forests</subject><subject>Fruits</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Models, Statistical</subject><subject>Pests</subject><subject>Plantations</subject><subject>Population Dynamics</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>South America</subject><subject>Storage</subject><subject>Terrestrial ecosystems</subject><subject>Threatened species</subject><subject>Trees - 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Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Magrach, Ainhoa</au><au>Ghazoul, Jaboury</au><au>Moreira, Francisco</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2015-07-15</date><risdate>2015</risdate><volume>10</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>e0133071</spage><epage>e0133071</epage><pages>e0133071-e0133071</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>26177201</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0133071</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Africa Agriculture - trends Animals Asia Biodiversity Borers Carbon Carbon - chemistry Carbon capture and storage Carbon sequestration Carbon storage Climate Change Coffea - growth & development Coffea - parasitology Coffea arabica Coffee Coffee industry Coffee production Coleoptera - physiology Crops Cultivation Ecosystem Ecosystem services Ecosystems Encroachment Environmental changes Forest ecosystems Forests Fruits Humans Models, Statistical Pests Plantations Population Dynamics Rain Rainfall South America Storage Terrestrial ecosystems Threatened species Trees - growth & development Trees - parasitology Wildlife conservation |
| title | Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage |
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