Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus) in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America
Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., 'short range endemics,' SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within thr...
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| description | Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., 'short range endemics,' SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07 km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0131067 |
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The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07 km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female<male) and life history stages (juvenile<adult) while a steadily declining population trajectory (r = -0.20±0.03) underscores the shallow predicted-time-to-extinction (17.09±2.05 years). Core habitat is receding upwards in elevation and will shift 750 km NW under conservative climate estimates. While survival is significantly impacted by wildfire at upper elevations, the extinction vortex is driven by small population demographics, a situation comparable to that of the European Adder (Vipera berus), a conservation icon in southern Sweden. Genetic rescue, a management approach successfully employed in similar situations, is ill advised in this situation due to climate-driven habitat change in the sky islands. CWO is a rare organism in a unique environment, with a conserved niche and a predisposition towards extinction. It is a bellwether for the eventual climate-driven collapse of the Madrean pine-oak ecosystem, one of Earth's three recognized megadiversity centers.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131067</identifier><identifier>PMID: 26114622</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Adults ; Altitude ; Analysis ; Animal Migration - physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Breeding ; Caretta caretta ; Climate Change ; Climate models ; Conservation ; Crotalus - genetics ; Crotalus - physiology ; Crotalus willardi obscurus ; Demographics ; Demography ; Drought ; Ecosystem ; Ecosystems ; Elevation ; Endangered & extinct species ; Endangered species ; Environmental changes ; Extinction ; Female ; Fires ; Global temperature changes ; Habitat changes ; Habitats ; Home range ; Inbreeding ; Islands ; Life history ; Male ; Molecular chains ; New Mexico ; Niches ; North America ; Population decline ; Rattlesnakes ; Reptiles ; Sea turtles ; Species extinction ; Survival ; Wildfires ; Wildlife conservation</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2015-06, Vol.10 (6), p.e0131067-e0131067</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2015 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2015 Davis et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2015 Davis et al 2015 Davis et al</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-99805e5a08acfa260b82dbe30b3242912f85826a97dade62b6f507b26aa2da763</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-99805e5a08acfa260b82dbe30b3242912f85826a97dade62b6f507b26aa2da763</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4482755/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4482755/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,860,881,2096,2915,23845,27901,27902,53766,53768,79342,79343</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26114622$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Davis, Mark A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Douglas, Marlis R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Webb, Colleen T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Collyer, Michael L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Holycross, Andrew T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Painter, Charles W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kamees, Larry K</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Douglas, Michael E</creatorcontrib><title>Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus) in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., 'short range endemics,' SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07 km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female<male) and life history stages (juvenile<adult) while a steadily declining population trajectory (r = -0.20±0.03) underscores the shallow predicted-time-to-extinction (17.09±2.05 years). Core habitat is receding upwards in elevation and will shift 750 km NW under conservative climate estimates. While survival is significantly impacted by wildfire at upper elevations, the extinction vortex is driven by small population demographics, a situation comparable to that of the European Adder (Vipera berus), a conservation icon in southern Sweden. Genetic rescue, a management approach successfully employed in similar situations, is ill advised in this situation due to climate-driven habitat change in the sky islands. CWO is a rare organism in a unique environment, with a conserved niche and a predisposition towards extinction. It is a bellwether for the eventual climate-driven collapse of the Madrean pine-oak ecosystem, one of Earth's three recognized megadiversity centers.</description><subject>Adults</subject><subject>Altitude</subject><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Animal Migration - physiology</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Biodiversity</subject><subject>Breeding</subject><subject>Caretta caretta</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Conservation</subject><subject>Crotalus - genetics</subject><subject>Crotalus - physiology</subject><subject>Crotalus willardi obscurus</subject><subject>Demographics</subject><subject>Demography</subject><subject>Drought</subject><subject>Ecosystem</subject><subject>Ecosystems</subject><subject>Elevation</subject><subject>Endangered & extinct species</subject><subject>Endangered species</subject><subject>Environmental changes</subject><subject>Extinction</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Fires</subject><subject>Global temperature changes</subject><subject>Habitat changes</subject><subject>Habitats</subject><subject>Home range</subject><subject>Inbreeding</subject><subject>Islands</subject><subject>Life history</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Molecular chains</subject><subject>New Mexico</subject><subject>Niches</subject><subject>North America</subject><subject>Population decline</subject><subject>Rattlesnakes</subject><subject>Reptiles</subject><subject>Sea turtles</subject><subject>Species extinction</subject><subject>Survival</subject><subject>Wildfires</subject><subject>Wildlife 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range endemics,' SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07 km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female<male) and life history stages (juvenile<adult) while a steadily declining population trajectory (r = -0.20±0.03) underscores the shallow predicted-time-to-extinction (17.09±2.05 years). Core habitat is receding upwards in elevation and will shift 750 km NW under conservative climate estimates. While survival is significantly impacted by wildfire at upper elevations, the extinction vortex is driven by small population demographics, a situation comparable to that of the European Adder (Vipera berus), a conservation icon in southern Sweden. Genetic rescue, a management approach successfully employed in similar situations, is ill advised in this situation due to climate-driven habitat change in the sky islands. CWO is a rare organism in a unique environment, with a conserved niche and a predisposition towards extinction. It is a bellwether for the eventual climate-driven collapse of the Madrean pine-oak ecosystem, one of Earth's three recognized megadiversity centers.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>26114622</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0131067</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1932-6203 |
| ispartof | PloS one, 2015-06, Vol.10 (6), p.e0131067-e0131067 |
| issn | 1932-6203 1932-6203 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_plos_journals_1691408722 |
| source | MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; PubMed Central; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry; Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| subjects | Adults Altitude Analysis Animal Migration - physiology Animals Biodiversity Breeding Caretta caretta Climate Change Climate models Conservation Crotalus - genetics Crotalus - physiology Crotalus willardi obscurus Demographics Demography Drought Ecosystem Ecosystems Elevation Endangered & extinct species Endangered species Environmental changes Extinction Female Fires Global temperature changes Habitat changes Habitats Home range Inbreeding Islands Life history Male Molecular chains New Mexico Niches North America Population decline Rattlesnakes Reptiles Sea turtles Species extinction Survival Wildfires Wildlife conservation |
| title | Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus) in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-02-08T23%3A07%3A48IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-gale_plos_&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Nowhere%20to%20Go%20but%20Up:%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change%20on%20Demographics%20of%20a%20Short-Range%20Endemic%20(Crotalus%20willardi%20obscurus)%20in%20the%20Sky-Islands%20of%20Southwestern%20North%20America&rft.jtitle=PloS%20one&rft.au=Davis,%20Mark%20A&rft.date=2015-06-26&rft.volume=10&rft.issue=6&rft.spage=e0131067&rft.epage=e0131067&rft.pages=e0131067-e0131067&rft.issn=1932-6203&rft.eissn=1932-6203&rft_id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0131067&rft_dat=%3Cgale_plos_%3EA419506079%3C/gale_plos_%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1691408722&rft_id=info:pmid/26114622&rft_galeid=A419506079&rft_doaj_id=oai_doaj_org_article_464ed60c8405407c9b19784a245b9248&rfr_iscdi=true |