Bayesian geostatistical model-based estimates of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Nigeria, including annual deworming requirements
The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities. S...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PLoS neglected tropical diseases 2015-04, Vol.9 (4), p.e0003740-e0003740 |
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| creator | Oluwole, Akinola S Ekpo, Uwem F Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios Abe, Eniola M Olamiju, Francisca O Isiyaku, Sunday Okoronkwo, Chukwu Saka, Yisa Nebe, Obiageli J Braide, Eka I Mafiana, Chiedu F Utzinger, Jürg Vounatsou, Penelope |
| description | The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities.
STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria.
We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets.
The predictive risk maps and estimated deworming needs presented here will be helpful for escalating the control and spatial targeting of interventions against STH infections in Nigeria. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003740 |
| format | Article |
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STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria.
We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets.
The predictive risk maps and estimated deworming needs presented here will be helpful for escalating the control and spatial targeting of interventions against STH infections in Nigeria.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1935-2735</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1935-2727</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1935-2735</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003740</identifier><identifier>PMID: 25909633</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Ancylostomatoidea - isolation & purification ; Animals ; Anthelmintics - therapeutic use ; Ascaris lumbricoides - isolation & purification ; Bayes Theorem ; Bayesian analysis ; Chemotherapy ; Child ; Data collection ; Disease transmission ; Distribution ; Estimates ; Female ; Geographic Information Systems ; Geography ; Helminthiasis ; Helminthiasis - drug therapy ; Helminthiasis - epidemiology ; Helminthiasis - transmission ; Humans ; Infections ; Male ; Medical research ; Methods ; Models, Biological ; Nigeria - epidemiology ; Population ; Prevalence ; Preventive medicine ; Risk Factors ; Soil - parasitology ; Studies ; Trichuris - isolation & purification ; Tropical diseases</subject><ispartof>PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2015-04, Vol.9 (4), p.e0003740-e0003740</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2015 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2015 Oluwole et al 2015 Oluwole et al</rights><rights>2015 Public Library of Science. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited: Oluwole AS, Ekpo UF, Karagiannis-Voules D-A, Abe EM, Olamiju FO, Isiyaku S, et al. (2015) Bayesian Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection in Nigeria, Including Annual Deworming Requirements. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 9(4): e0003740. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003740</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c596t-8d099988b86f258adce251ffd85fc6c1862ad3d76c765177703cd48c472334383</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c596t-8d099988b86f258adce251ffd85fc6c1862ad3d76c765177703cd48c472334383</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4409219/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4409219/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,315,729,782,786,866,887,2104,2930,23873,27931,27932,53798,53800</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25909633$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Munoz-Zanzi, Claudia</contributor><creatorcontrib>Oluwole, Akinola S</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ekpo, Uwem F</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Abe, Eniola M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Olamiju, Francisca O</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Isiyaku, Sunday</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Okoronkwo, Chukwu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Saka, Yisa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nebe, Obiageli J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Braide, Eka I</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mafiana, Chiedu F</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Utzinger, Jürg</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vounatsou, Penelope</creatorcontrib><title>Bayesian geostatistical model-based estimates of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Nigeria, including annual deworming requirements</title><title>PLoS neglected tropical diseases</title><addtitle>PLoS Negl Trop Dis</addtitle><description>The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities.
STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria.
We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets.
The predictive risk maps and estimated deworming needs presented here will be helpful for escalating the control and spatial targeting of interventions against STH infections in Nigeria.</description><subject>Ancylostomatoidea - isolation & purification</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Anthelmintics - therapeutic use</subject><subject>Ascaris lumbricoides - isolation & purification</subject><subject>Bayes Theorem</subject><subject>Bayesian analysis</subject><subject>Chemotherapy</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Data collection</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Distribution</subject><subject>Estimates</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Geographic Information Systems</subject><subject>Geography</subject><subject>Helminthiasis</subject><subject>Helminthiasis - drug therapy</subject><subject>Helminthiasis - epidemiology</subject><subject>Helminthiasis - transmission</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medical research</subject><subject>Methods</subject><subject>Models, Biological</subject><subject>Nigeria - epidemiology</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Prevalence</subject><subject>Preventive medicine</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>Soil - parasitology</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Trichuris - isolation & purification</subject><subject>Tropical diseases</subject><issn>1935-2735</issn><issn>1935-2727</issn><issn>1935-2735</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNptUtuKFDEQbURx19E_EG0QxAd7TDqd28vCunhZWPRFn0M6SfdkSCezSVrZP_CzTTuzywxIHlKcnDqpOlVV9RKCNUQUftiGOXrp1juf9RoAgGgHHlXnkCPctBThx0fxWfUspS0AmGMGn1ZnLeaAE4TOqz8f5Z1JVvp6NCFlmW3KVklXT0Eb1_QyGV2bgk0ym1SHoU7BuiZH6dNkcy6vG-Mm6_Omtn4wKtvgS1R_s6OJVr4vsXKztn6spfdzUdbmd4jTAkRzO9toJuNzel49GaRL5sXhXlU_P3_6cfW1ufn-5frq8qZRmJPcMA0454z1jAwtZlIr02I4DJrhQREFGWmlRpoSRQmGlFKAlO6Y6miLUIcYWlWv97o7F5I4mJgEJAwThCkBhXG9Z-ggt2IXS-vxTgRpxT8gxFHIWExyRhAD5EDA0PaQdYqgviWA9ApIrAmXvC1aF4ff5n4ypVhfnHMnoqcv3m7EGH6JrgO8LfNbVe8OAjHczmUQYrJJGeekN2Fe6qYUUQQpLNQ3e-ooS2llGKEoqoUuLjvIOGtJt3S3_g-rHG0mq4I3gy34ScLbo4SNkS5vUnDzMuh0Suz2RBVDStEMD21CIJaVvXdbLCsrDitb0l4dW_SQdL-j6C_aWuuk</recordid><startdate>20150401</startdate><enddate>20150401</enddate><creator>Oluwole, Akinola S</creator><creator>Ekpo, Uwem F</creator><creator>Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios</creator><creator>Abe, Eniola M</creator><creator>Olamiju, Francisca O</creator><creator>Isiyaku, Sunday</creator><creator>Okoronkwo, Chukwu</creator><creator>Saka, Yisa</creator><creator>Nebe, Obiageli J</creator><creator>Braide, Eka I</creator><creator>Mafiana, Chiedu F</creator><creator>Utzinger, Jürg</creator><creator>Vounatsou, Penelope</creator><general>Public Library of Science</general><general>Public Library of Science (PLoS)</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>DOA</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20150401</creationdate><title>Bayesian geostatistical model-based estimates of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Nigeria, including annual deworming requirements</title><author>Oluwole, Akinola S ; Ekpo, Uwem F ; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios ; Abe, Eniola M ; Olamiju, Francisca O ; Isiyaku, Sunday ; Okoronkwo, Chukwu ; Saka, Yisa ; Nebe, Obiageli J ; Braide, Eka I ; Mafiana, Chiedu F ; Utzinger, Jürg ; Vounatsou, Penelope</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c596t-8d099988b86f258adce251ffd85fc6c1862ad3d76c765177703cd48c472334383</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2015</creationdate><topic>Ancylostomatoidea - isolation & purification</topic><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Anthelmintics - therapeutic use</topic><topic>Ascaris lumbricoides - isolation & purification</topic><topic>Bayes Theorem</topic><topic>Bayesian analysis</topic><topic>Chemotherapy</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Data collection</topic><topic>Disease transmission</topic><topic>Distribution</topic><topic>Estimates</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Geographic Information Systems</topic><topic>Geography</topic><topic>Helminthiasis</topic><topic>Helminthiasis - drug therapy</topic><topic>Helminthiasis - epidemiology</topic><topic>Helminthiasis - transmission</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infections</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Medical research</topic><topic>Methods</topic><topic>Models, Biological</topic><topic>Nigeria - epidemiology</topic><topic>Population</topic><topic>Prevalence</topic><topic>Preventive medicine</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><topic>Soil - parasitology</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Trichuris - isolation & purification</topic><topic>Tropical diseases</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Oluwole, Akinola S</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ekpo, Uwem F</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Abe, Eniola M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Olamiju, Francisca O</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Isiyaku, Sunday</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Okoronkwo, Chukwu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Saka, Yisa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nebe, Obiageli J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Braide, Eka I</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mafiana, Chiedu F</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Utzinger, Jürg</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vounatsou, Penelope</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>PLoS neglected tropical diseases</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Oluwole, Akinola S</au><au>Ekpo, Uwem F</au><au>Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios</au><au>Abe, Eniola M</au><au>Olamiju, Francisca O</au><au>Isiyaku, Sunday</au><au>Okoronkwo, Chukwu</au><au>Saka, Yisa</au><au>Nebe, Obiageli J</au><au>Braide, Eka I</au><au>Mafiana, Chiedu F</au><au>Utzinger, Jürg</au><au>Vounatsou, Penelope</au><au>Munoz-Zanzi, Claudia</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Bayesian geostatistical model-based estimates of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Nigeria, including annual deworming requirements</atitle><jtitle>PLoS neglected tropical diseases</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS Negl Trop Dis</addtitle><date>2015-04-01</date><risdate>2015</risdate><volume>9</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>e0003740</spage><epage>e0003740</epage><pages>e0003740-e0003740</pages><issn>1935-2735</issn><issn>1935-2727</issn><eissn>1935-2735</eissn><abstract>The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities.
STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria.
We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets.
The predictive risk maps and estimated deworming needs presented here will be helpful for escalating the control and spatial targeting of interventions against STH infections in Nigeria.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>25909633</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pntd.0003740</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| source | MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; PubMed Central Open Access; Public Library of Science (PLoS) Journals Open Access; PubMed Central |
| subjects | Ancylostomatoidea - isolation & purification Animals Anthelmintics - therapeutic use Ascaris lumbricoides - isolation & purification Bayes Theorem Bayesian analysis Chemotherapy Child Data collection Disease transmission Distribution Estimates Female Geographic Information Systems Geography Helminthiasis Helminthiasis - drug therapy Helminthiasis - epidemiology Helminthiasis - transmission Humans Infections Male Medical research Methods Models, Biological Nigeria - epidemiology Population Prevalence Preventive medicine Risk Factors Soil - parasitology Studies Trichuris - isolation & purification Tropical diseases |
| title | Bayesian geostatistical model-based estimates of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Nigeria, including annual deworming requirements |
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