Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder,...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | PloS one 2015-05, Vol.10 (5), p.e0125842-e0125842 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | e0125842 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 5 |
| container_start_page | e0125842 |
| container_title | PloS one |
| container_volume | 10 |
| creator | Barongo, Mike B Ståhl, Karl Bett, Bernard Bishop, Richard P Fèvre, Eric M Aliro, Tony Okoth, Edward Masembe, Charles Knobel, Darryn Ssematimba, Amos |
| description | African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda. The estimation was based on data collected from outbreaks that affected 43 villages (out of the 289 villages with an overall pig population of 26,570) between April 2010 and November 2011. A total of 211 outbreaks met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Three methods were used, specifically; (i) GIS- based identification of the nearest infectious neighbour based on the Euclidean distance between outbreaks, (ii) epidemic doubling time, and (iii) a compartmental susceptible-infectious (SI) model. For implementation of the SI model, three approaches were used namely; curve fitting (CF), a linear regression model (LRM) and the SI/N proportion. The R0 estimates from the nearest infectious neighbour and epidemic doubling time methods were 3.24 and 1.63 respectively. Estimates from the SI-based method were 1.58 for the CF approach, 1.90 for the LRM, and 1.77 for the SI/N proportion. Since all these values were above one, they predict the observed persistence of the virus in the population. We hypothesize that the observed variation in the estimates is a consequence of the data used. Higher resolution and temporally better defined data would likely reduce this variation. This is the first estimate of R0 for ASFV in a free range smallholder pig keeping system in sub-Saharan Africa and highlights the requirement for more efficient application of available disease control measures. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0125842 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>gale_plos_</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_plos_journals_1678576864</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><galeid>A430193590</galeid><doaj_id>oai_doaj_org_article_92716695cb3643ceb42917d2f50ccdd6</doaj_id><sourcerecordid>A430193590</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c623t-11c2964eba4bda7ba2129baf5137c19907369ae6578ef1ade335de164b7c8cc03</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNptUl1v0zAUjRCIjcI_QGAJCXUPLf5I7OQFqUwrmzQB2ter5Tg3qavULrbTadqfx6XdtCGebPmee-49xyfL3hM8JUyQL0s3eKv66dpZmGJCizKnL7JDUjE64RSzl0_uB9mbEJYYF6zk_HV2QIuKJXh1mN2fhGhWKhrbobgA9E0Fo9EFrL1rBh3NBtCPYVWDR-MLfIRa59Gs9UYriy5vjQU0h00q3hg_BDSeXc5vjtCVVzasTAjGWVRDvAWw6Jfp0Cn4JiBj0XWnbKPeZq9a1Qd4tz9H2fX85Or4dHL-8_vZ8ex8ojllcUKIphXPoVZ53ShRK0poVau2SDZoUlVYMF4p4IUooSWqAcaKBgjPa6FLrTEbZR93vOveBbn3LUjCRVkIXvI8Ic52iMappVz75Ii_k04Z-ffB-U4qH43uQVZUEM6rQtcsNWqok41ENLQtsNZNwxPX1_20oV5Bo8FGr_pnpM8r1ixk5zYyz0kpiEgE4z2Bd78HCFEmLzX0vbLghu3eJSYlzZP-UfbpH-j_1X3eoTqVBCxA9XERXD_E9D9BznKGU1CKamtUvgNq70Lw0D5uTbDchu6BXm5DJ_ehS20fnip-bHpIGfsDKuDUCw</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Open Website</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1678576864</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda</title><source>Public Library of Science (PLoS) Journals Open Access</source><source>MEDLINE</source><source>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</source><source>Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals</source><source>PubMed Central</source><source>Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry</source><creator>Barongo, Mike B ; Ståhl, Karl ; Bett, Bernard ; Bishop, Richard P ; Fèvre, Eric M ; Aliro, Tony ; Okoth, Edward ; Masembe, Charles ; Knobel, Darryn ; Ssematimba, Amos</creator><creatorcontrib>Barongo, Mike B ; Ståhl, Karl ; Bett, Bernard ; Bishop, Richard P ; Fèvre, Eric M ; Aliro, Tony ; Okoth, Edward ; Masembe, Charles ; Knobel, Darryn ; Ssematimba, Amos</creatorcontrib><description>African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda. The estimation was based on data collected from outbreaks that affected 43 villages (out of the 289 villages with an overall pig population of 26,570) between April 2010 and November 2011. A total of 211 outbreaks met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Three methods were used, specifically; (i) GIS- based identification of the nearest infectious neighbour based on the Euclidean distance between outbreaks, (ii) epidemic doubling time, and (iii) a compartmental susceptible-infectious (SI) model. For implementation of the SI model, three approaches were used namely; curve fitting (CF), a linear regression model (LRM) and the SI/N proportion. The R0 estimates from the nearest infectious neighbour and epidemic doubling time methods were 3.24 and 1.63 respectively. Estimates from the SI-based method were 1.58 for the CF approach, 1.90 for the LRM, and 1.77 for the SI/N proportion. Since all these values were above one, they predict the observed persistence of the virus in the population. We hypothesize that the observed variation in the estimates is a consequence of the data used. Higher resolution and temporally better defined data would likely reduce this variation. This is the first estimate of R0 for ASFV in a free range smallholder pig keeping system in sub-Saharan Africa and highlights the requirement for more efficient application of available disease control measures.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0125842</identifier><identifier>PMID: 25938429</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>African swine fever ; African Swine Fever - epidemiology ; African Swine Fever - transmission ; African Swine Fever Virus ; Analysis ; Animal populations ; Animals ; Asfarviridae ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Care and treatment ; Complications and side effects ; Curve fitting ; Data processing ; Disease control ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease transmission ; Epidemics ; Estimates ; Fever ; Genotype & phenotype ; Hemorrhagic disease ; Hog cholera ; Hogs ; Identification methods ; Infections ; Infectious diseases ; Livestock ; Models, Statistical ; Outbreaks ; Regression models ; Seasons ; Sus scrofa ; Swine ; Swine production ; Uganda - epidemiology ; Veterinary medicine ; Viruses</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2015-05, Vol.10 (5), p.e0125842-e0125842</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2015 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2015 Barongo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2015 Barongo et al 2015 Barongo et al</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c623t-11c2964eba4bda7ba2129baf5137c19907369ae6578ef1ade335de164b7c8cc03</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c623t-11c2964eba4bda7ba2129baf5137c19907369ae6578ef1ade335de164b7c8cc03</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4418717/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4418717/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,860,881,2096,2915,23845,27901,27902,53766,53768,79569,79570</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25938429$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Barongo, Mike B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ståhl, Karl</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bett, Bernard</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bishop, Richard P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fèvre, Eric M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aliro, Tony</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Okoth, Edward</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Masembe, Charles</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Knobel, Darryn</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ssematimba, Amos</creatorcontrib><title>Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda. The estimation was based on data collected from outbreaks that affected 43 villages (out of the 289 villages with an overall pig population of 26,570) between April 2010 and November 2011. A total of 211 outbreaks met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Three methods were used, specifically; (i) GIS- based identification of the nearest infectious neighbour based on the Euclidean distance between outbreaks, (ii) epidemic doubling time, and (iii) a compartmental susceptible-infectious (SI) model. For implementation of the SI model, three approaches were used namely; curve fitting (CF), a linear regression model (LRM) and the SI/N proportion. The R0 estimates from the nearest infectious neighbour and epidemic doubling time methods were 3.24 and 1.63 respectively. Estimates from the SI-based method were 1.58 for the CF approach, 1.90 for the LRM, and 1.77 for the SI/N proportion. Since all these values were above one, they predict the observed persistence of the virus in the population. We hypothesize that the observed variation in the estimates is a consequence of the data used. Higher resolution and temporally better defined data would likely reduce this variation. This is the first estimate of R0 for ASFV in a free range smallholder pig keeping system in sub-Saharan Africa and highlights the requirement for more efficient application of available disease control measures.</description><subject>African swine fever</subject><subject>African Swine Fever - epidemiology</subject><subject>African Swine Fever - transmission</subject><subject>African Swine Fever Virus</subject><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Animal populations</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Asfarviridae</subject><subject>Basic Reproduction Number</subject><subject>Care and treatment</subject><subject>Complications and side effects</subject><subject>Curve fitting</subject><subject>Data processing</subject><subject>Disease control</subject><subject>Disease Outbreaks</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Estimates</subject><subject>Fever</subject><subject>Genotype & phenotype</subject><subject>Hemorrhagic disease</subject><subject>Hog cholera</subject><subject>Hogs</subject><subject>Identification methods</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Livestock</subject><subject>Models, Statistical</subject><subject>Outbreaks</subject><subject>Regression models</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>Sus scrofa</subject><subject>Swine</subject><subject>Swine production</subject><subject>Uganda - epidemiology</subject><subject>Veterinary medicine</subject><subject>Viruses</subject><issn>1932-6203</issn><issn>1932-6203</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNptUl1v0zAUjRCIjcI_QGAJCXUPLf5I7OQFqUwrmzQB2ter5Tg3qavULrbTadqfx6XdtCGebPmee-49xyfL3hM8JUyQL0s3eKv66dpZmGJCizKnL7JDUjE64RSzl0_uB9mbEJYYF6zk_HV2QIuKJXh1mN2fhGhWKhrbobgA9E0Fo9EFrL1rBh3NBtCPYVWDR-MLfIRa59Gs9UYriy5vjQU0h00q3hg_BDSeXc5vjtCVVzasTAjGWVRDvAWw6Jfp0Cn4JiBj0XWnbKPeZq9a1Qd4tz9H2fX85Or4dHL-8_vZ8ex8ojllcUKIphXPoVZ53ShRK0poVau2SDZoUlVYMF4p4IUooSWqAcaKBgjPa6FLrTEbZR93vOveBbn3LUjCRVkIXvI8Ic52iMappVz75Ii_k04Z-ffB-U4qH43uQVZUEM6rQtcsNWqok41ENLQtsNZNwxPX1_20oV5Bo8FGr_pnpM8r1ixk5zYyz0kpiEgE4z2Bd78HCFEmLzX0vbLghu3eJSYlzZP-UfbpH-j_1X3eoTqVBCxA9XERXD_E9D9BznKGU1CKamtUvgNq70Lw0D5uTbDchu6BXm5DJ_ehS20fnip-bHpIGfsDKuDUCw</recordid><startdate>20150504</startdate><enddate>20150504</enddate><creator>Barongo, Mike B</creator><creator>Ståhl, Karl</creator><creator>Bett, Bernard</creator><creator>Bishop, Richard P</creator><creator>Fèvre, Eric M</creator><creator>Aliro, Tony</creator><creator>Okoth, Edward</creator><creator>Masembe, Charles</creator><creator>Knobel, Darryn</creator><creator>Ssematimba, Amos</creator><general>Public Library of Science</general><general>Public Library of Science (PLoS)</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QG</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7QO</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TM</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>D1I</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PDBOC</scope><scope>PHGZM</scope><scope>PHGZT</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PJZUB</scope><scope>PKEHL</scope><scope>PPXIY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQGLB</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>DOA</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20150504</creationdate><title>Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda</title><author>Barongo, Mike B ; Ståhl, Karl ; Bett, Bernard ; Bishop, Richard P ; Fèvre, Eric M ; Aliro, Tony ; Okoth, Edward ; Masembe, Charles ; Knobel, Darryn ; Ssematimba, Amos</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c623t-11c2964eba4bda7ba2129baf5137c19907369ae6578ef1ade335de164b7c8cc03</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2015</creationdate><topic>African swine fever</topic><topic>African Swine Fever - epidemiology</topic><topic>African Swine Fever - transmission</topic><topic>African Swine Fever Virus</topic><topic>Analysis</topic><topic>Animal populations</topic><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Asfarviridae</topic><topic>Basic Reproduction Number</topic><topic>Care and treatment</topic><topic>Complications and side effects</topic><topic>Curve fitting</topic><topic>Data processing</topic><topic>Disease control</topic><topic>Disease Outbreaks</topic><topic>Disease transmission</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>Estimates</topic><topic>Fever</topic><topic>Genotype & phenotype</topic><topic>Hemorrhagic disease</topic><topic>Hog cholera</topic><topic>Hogs</topic><topic>Identification methods</topic><topic>Infections</topic><topic>Infectious diseases</topic><topic>Livestock</topic><topic>Models, Statistical</topic><topic>Outbreaks</topic><topic>Regression models</topic><topic>Seasons</topic><topic>Sus scrofa</topic><topic>Swine</topic><topic>Swine production</topic><topic>Uganda - epidemiology</topic><topic>Veterinary medicine</topic><topic>Viruses</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Barongo, Mike B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ståhl, Karl</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bett, Bernard</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bishop, Richard P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fèvre, Eric M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aliro, Tony</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Okoth, Edward</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Masembe, Charles</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Knobel, Darryn</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ssematimba, Amos</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Animal Behavior Abstracts</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Biotechnology Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Nucleic Acids Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Materials Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Materials Science Database</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Database</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Materials Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (New)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic (New)</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Research Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Health & Nursing</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Applied & Life Sciences</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Barongo, Mike B</au><au>Ståhl, Karl</au><au>Bett, Bernard</au><au>Bishop, Richard P</au><au>Fèvre, Eric M</au><au>Aliro, Tony</au><au>Okoth, Edward</au><au>Masembe, Charles</au><au>Knobel, Darryn</au><au>Ssematimba, Amos</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2015-05-04</date><risdate>2015</risdate><volume>10</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>e0125842</spage><epage>e0125842</epage><pages>e0125842-e0125842</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda. The estimation was based on data collected from outbreaks that affected 43 villages (out of the 289 villages with an overall pig population of 26,570) between April 2010 and November 2011. A total of 211 outbreaks met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Three methods were used, specifically; (i) GIS- based identification of the nearest infectious neighbour based on the Euclidean distance between outbreaks, (ii) epidemic doubling time, and (iii) a compartmental susceptible-infectious (SI) model. For implementation of the SI model, three approaches were used namely; curve fitting (CF), a linear regression model (LRM) and the SI/N proportion. The R0 estimates from the nearest infectious neighbour and epidemic doubling time methods were 3.24 and 1.63 respectively. Estimates from the SI-based method were 1.58 for the CF approach, 1.90 for the LRM, and 1.77 for the SI/N proportion. Since all these values were above one, they predict the observed persistence of the virus in the population. We hypothesize that the observed variation in the estimates is a consequence of the data used. Higher resolution and temporally better defined data would likely reduce this variation. This is the first estimate of R0 for ASFV in a free range smallholder pig keeping system in sub-Saharan Africa and highlights the requirement for more efficient application of available disease control measures.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>25938429</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0125842</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1932-6203 |
| ispartof | PloS one, 2015-05, Vol.10 (5), p.e0125842-e0125842 |
| issn | 1932-6203 1932-6203 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_plos_journals_1678576864 |
| source | Public Library of Science (PLoS) Journals Open Access; MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; PubMed Central; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry |
| subjects | African swine fever African Swine Fever - epidemiology African Swine Fever - transmission African Swine Fever Virus Analysis Animal populations Animals Asfarviridae Basic Reproduction Number Care and treatment Complications and side effects Curve fitting Data processing Disease control Disease Outbreaks Disease transmission Epidemics Estimates Fever Genotype & phenotype Hemorrhagic disease Hog cholera Hogs Identification methods Infections Infectious diseases Livestock Models, Statistical Outbreaks Regression models Seasons Sus scrofa Swine Swine production Uganda - epidemiology Veterinary medicine Viruses |
| title | Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-02-21T18%3A36%3A30IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-gale_plos_&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Estimating%20the%20Basic%20Reproductive%20Number%20(R0)%20for%20African%20Swine%20Fever%20Virus%20(ASFV)%20Transmission%20between%20Pig%20Herds%20in%20Uganda&rft.jtitle=PloS%20one&rft.au=Barongo,%20Mike%20B&rft.date=2015-05-04&rft.volume=10&rft.issue=5&rft.spage=e0125842&rft.epage=e0125842&rft.pages=e0125842-e0125842&rft.issn=1932-6203&rft.eissn=1932-6203&rft_id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0125842&rft_dat=%3Cgale_plos_%3EA430193590%3C/gale_plos_%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1678576864&rft_id=info:pmid/25938429&rft_galeid=A430193590&rft_doaj_id=oai_doaj_org_article_92716695cb3643ceb42917d2f50ccdd6&rfr_iscdi=true |