Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change
Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to t...
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description | Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change.
We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes.
Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change. |
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We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes.
Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098907</identifier><identifier>PMID: 24892737</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Animal taxonomy ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Biogeography ; Biology ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Climate Change ; Computer simulation ; Earth Sciences ; Ecological effects ; Ecological monitoring ; Ecology ; Ecology and Environmental Sciences ; Ecosystem ; Ecosystems ; Environment ; Global temperature changes ; Global warming ; Habitats ; Land degradation ; Life sciences ; Models, Theoretical ; Museums ; Natural history ; Phylogenetics ; Phylogeny ; Precipitation ; Reptiles & amphibians ; Species ; Spiders ; Spiders - classification ; Studies ; Taxa ; Trends ; Tropical environment ; Tropical environments ; Working groups</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2014-06, Vol.9 (6), p.e98907</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2014 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2014. This is an open-access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2014</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-fcb0cf97f46026c9f8c51718c501b31686e7cd2095b01474f4434b34700cbf033</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c692t-fcb0cf97f46026c9f8c51718c501b31686e7cd2095b01474f4434b34700cbf033</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4044009/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4044009/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,864,885,2102,2928,23866,27924,27925,53791,53793,79600,79601</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24892737$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Medina, Mónica</contributor><creatorcontrib>Kuntner, Matjaž</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Năpăruş, Magdalena</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Daiqin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Coddington, Jonathan A</creatorcontrib><title>Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change.
We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes.
Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.</description><subject>Animal taxonomy</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Biodiversity</subject><subject>Biogeography</subject><subject>Biology</subject><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Ecological effects</subject><subject>Ecological monitoring</subject><subject>Ecology</subject><subject>Ecology and Environmental Sciences</subject><subject>Ecosystem</subject><subject>Ecosystems</subject><subject>Environment</subject><subject>Global temperature changes</subject><subject>Global warming</subject><subject>Habitats</subject><subject>Land degradation</subject><subject>Life sciences</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Museums</subject><subject>Natural history</subject><subject>Phylogenetics</subject><subject>Phylogeny</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Reptiles & amphibians</subject><subject>Species</subject><subject>Spiders</subject><subject>Spiders - 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Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change.
We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes.
Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>24892737</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0098907</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Animal taxonomy Animals Biodiversity Biogeography Biology Biology and Life Sciences Climate Change Computer simulation Earth Sciences Ecological effects Ecological monitoring Ecology Ecology and Environmental Sciences Ecosystem Ecosystems Environment Global temperature changes Global warming Habitats Land degradation Life sciences Models, Theoretical Museums Natural history Phylogenetics Phylogeny Precipitation Reptiles & amphibians Species Spiders Spiders - classification Studies Taxa Trends Tropical environment Tropical environments Working groups |
title | Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change |
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