Prospective validation of a prognostic model for respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis in late preterm infants: a multicenter birth cohort study

This study aimed to update and validate a prediction rule for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalization in preterm infants 33-35 weeks gestational age (WGA). The RISK study consisted of 2 multicenter prospective birth cohorts in 41 hospitals. Risk factors were assessed at birth among healthy...

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Veröffentlicht in:PloS one 2013-03, Vol.8 (3), p.e59161-e59161
Hauptverfasser: Blanken, Maarten O, Koffijberg, Hendrik, Nibbelke, Elisabeth E, Rovers, Maroeska M, Bont, Louis
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container_title PloS one
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creator Blanken, Maarten O
Koffijberg, Hendrik
Nibbelke, Elisabeth E
Rovers, Maroeska M
Bont, Louis
description This study aimed to update and validate a prediction rule for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalization in preterm infants 33-35 weeks gestational age (WGA). The RISK study consisted of 2 multicenter prospective birth cohorts in 41 hospitals. Risk factors were assessed at birth among healthy preterm infants 33-35 WGA. All hospitalizations for respiratory tract infection were screened for proven RSV infection by immunofluorescence or polymerase chain reaction. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to update an existing prediction model in the derivation cohort (n = 1,227). In the validation cohort (n = 1,194), predicted versus actual RSV hospitalization rates were compared to determine validity of the model. RSV hospitalization risk in both cohorts was comparable (5.7% versus 4.9%). In the derivation cohort, a prediction rule to determine probability of RSV hospitalization was developed using 4 predictors: family atopy (OR 1.9; 95%CI, 1.1-3.2), birth period (OR 2.6; 1.6-4.2), breastfeeding (OR 1.7; 1.0-2.7) and siblings or daycare attendance (OR 4.7; 1.7-13.1). The model showed good discrimination (c-statistic 0.703; 0.64-0.76, 0.702 after bootstrapping). External validation showed good discrimination and calibration (c-statistic 0.678; 0.61-0.74). Our prospectively validated prediction rule identifies infants at increased RSV hospitalization risk, who may benefit from targeted preventive interventions. This prediction rule can facilitate country-specific, cost-effective use of RSV prophylaxis in late preterm infants.
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The model showed good discrimination (c-statistic 0.703; 0.64-0.76, 0.702 after bootstrapping). External validation showed good discrimination and calibration (c-statistic 0.678; 0.61-0.74). Our prospectively validated prediction rule identifies infants at increased RSV hospitalization risk, who may benefit from targeted preventive interventions. This prediction rule can facilitate country-specific, cost-effective use of RSV prophylaxis in late preterm infants.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>23554987</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0059161</doi><tpages>e59161</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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identifier ISSN: 1932-6203
ispartof PloS one, 2013-03, Vol.8 (3), p.e59161-e59161
issn 1932-6203
1932-6203
language eng
recordid cdi_plos_journals_1330898773
source MEDLINE; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; Public Library of Science (PLoS); PubMed Central; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry
subjects Age
Analysis
Asthma
Atopy
Birth weight
Breast feeding
Breastfeeding & lactation
Bronchiolitis - diagnosis
Bronchiolitis - virology
Bronchopneumonia
Cardiovascular disease
Cohort analysis
Cohort Studies
Congenital diseases
Cost analysis
Daycare
Derivation
Down syndrome
Families & family life
Female
Gestational age
Hay fever
Health aspects
Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data
Hospitals
Humans
Immunofluorescence
Immunology
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Infant, Premature
Infant, Premature, Diseases - diagnosis
Infant, Premature, Diseases - virology
Infants
Infections
Infectious diseases
Lung diseases
Male
Mathematical models
Medical research
Medicine
Models, Statistical
Newborn babies
Parents & parenting
Pediatrics
Polymerase chain reaction
Prediction models
Premature birth
Premature infants
Prognosis
Prophylaxis
Regression analysis
Respiratory diseases
Respiratory syncytial virus
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - diagnosis
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - virology
Respiratory Syncytial Viruses - isolation & purification
Respiratory tract
Respiratory tract diseases
Risk analysis
Risk Factors
Severity of Illness Index
Siblings
Statistical analysis
Survival Rate
United Kingdom
Viruses
title Prospective validation of a prognostic model for respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis in late preterm infants: a multicenter birth cohort study
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