Evaluation of location-specific predictions by a detailed simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations
Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sit...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | PloS one 2011-07, Vol.6 (7), p.e22701-e22701 |
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| creator | Legros, Mathieu Magori, Krisztian Morrison, Amy C Xu, Chonggang Scott, Thomas W Lloyd, Alun L Gould, Fred |
| description | Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization.
Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons.
This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pone.0022701 |
| format | Article |
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Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons.
This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0022701</identifier><identifier>PMID: 21799936</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Aedes ; Aedes aegypti ; Analysis ; Animals ; Aquatic insects ; Argentina ; Biology ; Computer simulation ; Containers ; Control methods ; Customization ; Customizing ; Data collection ; Data collections ; Demographics ; Dengue fever ; Dynamic structural analysis ; Dynamics ; Evaluation ; Female ; Genetics ; Houses ; Housing ; Mathematical models ; Medicine ; Models, Theoretical ; Mosquitoes ; Population ; Population biology ; Population control ; Population Dynamics ; Productivity ; Residential areas ; Simulation ; Spatial discrimination ; Spatial distribution ; Stochastic Processes ; Stochasticity ; Studies ; Surveillance ; Time Factors ; Urban areas</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2011-07, Vol.6 (7), p.e22701-e22701</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2011 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2011 Legros et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>Legros et al. 2011</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c691t-a0f79e506bf0d777697fcc149a40d5143f828beef92bb246e8115efa631eee543</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c691t-a0f79e506bf0d777697fcc149a40d5143f828beef92bb246e8115efa631eee543</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3143176/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3143176/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,864,885,2102,2928,23866,27924,27925,53791,53793,79600,79601</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21799936$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Ooi, Eng Eong</contributor><creatorcontrib>Legros, Mathieu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Magori, Krisztian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Morrison, Amy C</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Chonggang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Scott, Thomas W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lloyd, Alun L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gould, Fred</creatorcontrib><title>Evaluation of location-specific predictions by a detailed simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization.
Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons.
This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation.</description><subject>Aedes</subject><subject>Aedes aegypti</subject><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Aquatic insects</subject><subject>Argentina</subject><subject>Biology</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Containers</subject><subject>Control methods</subject><subject>Customization</subject><subject>Customizing</subject><subject>Data collection</subject><subject>Data collections</subject><subject>Demographics</subject><subject>Dengue fever</subject><subject>Dynamic structural analysis</subject><subject>Dynamics</subject><subject>Evaluation</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Genetics</subject><subject>Houses</subject><subject>Housing</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Mosquitoes</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Population biology</subject><subject>Population control</subject><subject>Population Dynamics</subject><subject>Productivity</subject><subject>Residential areas</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Spatial discrimination</subject><subject>Spatial distribution</subject><subject>Stochastic Processes</subject><subject>Stochasticity</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Surveillance</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>Urban 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of location-specific predictions by a detailed simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations</title><author>Legros, Mathieu ; Magori, Krisztian ; Morrison, Amy C ; Xu, Chonggang ; Scott, Thomas W ; Lloyd, Alun L ; Gould, Fred</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c691t-a0f79e506bf0d777697fcc149a40d5143f828beef92bb246e8115efa631eee543</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2011</creationdate><topic>Aedes</topic><topic>Aedes aegypti</topic><topic>Analysis</topic><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Aquatic insects</topic><topic>Argentina</topic><topic>Biology</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Containers</topic><topic>Control methods</topic><topic>Customization</topic><topic>Customizing</topic><topic>Data collection</topic><topic>Data collections</topic><topic>Demographics</topic><topic>Dengue fever</topic><topic>Dynamic structural 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Fred</au><au>Ooi, Eng Eong</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Evaluation of location-specific predictions by a detailed simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><date>2011-07-25</date><risdate>2011</risdate><volume>6</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>e22701</spage><epage>e22701</epage><pages>e22701-e22701</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization.
Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons.
This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>21799936</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0022701</doi><tpages>e22701</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Aedes Aedes aegypti Analysis Animals Aquatic insects Argentina Biology Computer simulation Containers Control methods Customization Customizing Data collection Data collections Demographics Dengue fever Dynamic structural analysis Dynamics Evaluation Female Genetics Houses Housing Mathematical models Medicine Models, Theoretical Mosquitoes Population Population biology Population control Population Dynamics Productivity Residential areas Simulation Spatial discrimination Spatial distribution Stochastic Processes Stochasticity Studies Surveillance Time Factors Urban areas |
| title | Evaluation of location-specific predictions by a detailed simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations |
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