Transmission dynamics and prospects for the elimination of canine rabies
Rabies has been eliminated from domestic dog populations in Western Europe and North America, but continues to kill many thousands of people throughout Africa and Asia every year. A quantitative understanding of transmission dynamics in domestic dog populations provides critical information to asses...
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Veröffentlicht in: | PLoS biology 2009-03, Vol.7 (3), p.e53-e1000053 |
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description | Rabies has been eliminated from domestic dog populations in Western Europe and North America, but continues to kill many thousands of people throughout Africa and Asia every year. A quantitative understanding of transmission dynamics in domestic dog populations provides critical information to assess whether global elimination of canine rabies is possible. We report extensive observations of individual rabid animals in Tanzania and generate a uniquely detailed analysis of transmission biology, which explains important epidemiological features, including the level of variation in epidemic trajectories. We found that the basic reproductive number for rabies, R0, is very low in our study area in rural Africa (approximately 1.2) and throughout its historic global range ( |
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A quantitative understanding of transmission dynamics in domestic dog populations provides critical information to assess whether global elimination of canine rabies is possible. We report extensive observations of individual rabid animals in Tanzania and generate a uniquely detailed analysis of transmission biology, which explains important epidemiological features, including the level of variation in epidemic trajectories. We found that the basic reproductive number for rabies, R0, is very low in our study area in rural Africa (approximately 1.2) and throughout its historic global range (<2). This finding provides strong support for the feasibility of controlling endemic canine rabies by vaccination, even near wildlife areas with large wild carnivore populations. However, we show that rapid turnover of domestic dog populations has been a major obstacle to successful control in developing countries, thus regular pulse vaccinations will be required to maintain population-level immunity between campaigns. Nonetheless our analyses suggest that with sustained, international commitment, global elimination of rabies from domestic dog populations, the most dangerous vector to humans, is a realistic goal.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1545-7885</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1544-9173</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1545-7885</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1000053</identifier><identifier>PMID: 19278295</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Animal bites ; Animals ; Causes of ; Control ; Demographic aspects ; Developing countries ; Disease transmission ; Distribution ; Dog Diseases - epidemiology ; Dog Diseases - prevention & control ; Dog Diseases - transmission ; Dogs ; Ecology ; Encephalitis ; Fatalities ; Health aspects ; Incidence ; Infectious Diseases ; LDCs ; Population ; Population Dynamics ; Prevalence studies (Epidemiology) ; Prevention ; Public Health and Epidemiology ; Rabies ; Rabies - epidemiology ; Rabies - transmission ; Rabies - veterinary ; Rabies Vaccines ; Risk factors ; Tanzania - epidemiology ; Time series ; Tropical diseases ; Vaccination</subject><ispartof>PLoS biology, 2009-03, Vol.7 (3), p.e53-e1000053</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2009 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2009 Hampson et al. 2009</rights><rights>2009 Hampson et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited: Hampson K, Dushoff J, Cleaveland S, Haydon DT, Kaare M, et al. (2009) Transmission Dynamics and Prospects for the Elimination of Canine Rabies. 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A quantitative understanding of transmission dynamics in domestic dog populations provides critical information to assess whether global elimination of canine rabies is possible. We report extensive observations of individual rabid animals in Tanzania and generate a uniquely detailed analysis of transmission biology, which explains important epidemiological features, including the level of variation in epidemic trajectories. We found that the basic reproductive number for rabies, R0, is very low in our study area in rural Africa (approximately 1.2) and throughout its historic global range (<2). This finding provides strong support for the feasibility of controlling endemic canine rabies by vaccination, even near wildlife areas with large wild carnivore populations. However, we show that rapid turnover of domestic dog populations has been a major obstacle to successful control in developing countries, thus regular pulse vaccinations will be required to maintain population-level immunity between campaigns. Nonetheless our analyses suggest that with sustained, international commitment, global elimination of rabies from domestic dog populations, the most dangerous vector to humans, is a realistic goal.</description><subject>Animal bites</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Causes of</subject><subject>Control</subject><subject>Demographic aspects</subject><subject>Developing countries</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Distribution</subject><subject>Dog Diseases - epidemiology</subject><subject>Dog Diseases - prevention & control</subject><subject>Dog Diseases - transmission</subject><subject>Dogs</subject><subject>Ecology</subject><subject>Encephalitis</subject><subject>Fatalities</subject><subject>Health aspects</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subject>LDCs</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Population Dynamics</subject><subject>Prevalence studies (Epidemiology)</subject><subject>Prevention</subject><subject>Public Health and Epidemiology</subject><subject>Rabies</subject><subject>Rabies - epidemiology</subject><subject>Rabies - transmission</subject><subject>Rabies - veterinary</subject><subject>Rabies Vaccines</subject><subject>Risk factors</subject><subject>Tanzania - epidemiology</subject><subject>Time series</subject><subject>Tropical diseases</subject><subject>Vaccination</subject><issn>1545-7885</issn><issn>1544-9173</issn><issn>1545-7885</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2009</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNqVkl1rFDEUhgdRbK3-A9EBQfBi1ySTr7kRSlG7UCxo9TZkkpNtltlkm8yK_fdm3FE7IKjJRULynPdwznmr6ilGS9wI_HoT9ynofrnrfFxiVBZr7lXHmFG2EFKy-3fuR9WjnDcIEdIS-bA6wi0RkrTsuDq_Sjrkrc_Zx1Db26C33uRaB1vvUsw7MEOuXUz1cA019H7rgx5GNLra6OAD1El3HvLj6oHTfYYn03lSfX739ursfHFx-X51dnqxMIKTYdGZtgGMBMVCaNu2gjUCLKfSSuQcAaIt8I5jbLBroZVUu9ZIgw0Y7Tpsm5Pq-UF318espiZkhUtlY3FYFGJ1IGzUG7VLfqvTrYraqx8PMa2VToM3PaiSQ3BKCZJAqBOma1nHLOWIcN0wBEXrzZRt323BGghD0v1MdP4T_LVax6-KcNYwxorAy0kgxZs95EGVXhvoex0g7rPiAiNJMf0rSBBrmSSogC8O4FqXCnxwsSQ2I6xOcSmHcybGJiz_QJVtoQw4BnC-vM8CXs0CCjPAt2Gt9zmr1aeP_8F--Hf28sucpQfWFOvlBO5XozFSo-l_zluNpleT6UvYs7tD-h00ubz5Dgg0_TE</recordid><startdate>20090301</startdate><enddate>20090301</enddate><creator>Hampson, Katie</creator><creator>Dushoff, Jonathan</creator><creator>Cleaveland, Sarah</creator><creator>Haydon, Daniel T</creator><creator>Kaare, Magai</creator><creator>Packer, Craig</creator><creator>Dobson, Andy</creator><general>Public Library of Science</general><general>Public Library of Science (PLoS)</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>IOV</scope><scope>ISN</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>DOA</scope><scope>CZG</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20090301</creationdate><title>Transmission dynamics and prospects for the elimination of canine rabies</title><author>Hampson, Katie ; 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A quantitative understanding of transmission dynamics in domestic dog populations provides critical information to assess whether global elimination of canine rabies is possible. We report extensive observations of individual rabid animals in Tanzania and generate a uniquely detailed analysis of transmission biology, which explains important epidemiological features, including the level of variation in epidemic trajectories. We found that the basic reproductive number for rabies, R0, is very low in our study area in rural Africa (approximately 1.2) and throughout its historic global range (<2). This finding provides strong support for the feasibility of controlling endemic canine rabies by vaccination, even near wildlife areas with large wild carnivore populations. However, we show that rapid turnover of domestic dog populations has been a major obstacle to successful control in developing countries, thus regular pulse vaccinations will be required to maintain population-level immunity between campaigns. Nonetheless our analyses suggest that with sustained, international commitment, global elimination of rabies from domestic dog populations, the most dangerous vector to humans, is a realistic goal.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>19278295</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pbio.1000053</doi><tpages>10</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Animal bites Animals Causes of Control Demographic aspects Developing countries Disease transmission Distribution Dog Diseases - epidemiology Dog Diseases - prevention & control Dog Diseases - transmission Dogs Ecology Encephalitis Fatalities Health aspects Incidence Infectious Diseases LDCs Population Population Dynamics Prevalence studies (Epidemiology) Prevention Public Health and Epidemiology Rabies Rabies - epidemiology Rabies - transmission Rabies - veterinary Rabies Vaccines Risk factors Tanzania - epidemiology Time series Tropical diseases Vaccination |
title | Transmission dynamics and prospects for the elimination of canine rabies |
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