Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). T...

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Veröffentlicht in:PLoS medicine 2012-06, Vol.9 (6), p.e1001230-e1001230
Hauptverfasser: Langenberg, Claudia, Sharp, Stephen J, Schulze, Matthias B, Rolandsson, Olov, Overvad, Kim, Forouhi, Nita G, Spranger, Joachim, Drogan, Dagmar, Huerta, José María, Arriola, Larraitz, de Lauzon-Guillan, Blandine, Tormo, Maria-Jose, Ardanaz, Eva, Balkau, Beverley, Beulens, Joline W J, Boeing, Heiner, Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas, Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise, Crowe, Francesca L, Franks, Paul W, Gonzalez, Carlos A, Grioni, Sara, Halkjaer, Jytte, Hallmans, Goran, Kaaks, Rudolf, Kerrison, Nicola D, Key, Timothy J, Khaw, Kay Tee, Mattiello, Amalia, Nilsson, Peter, Norat, Teresa, Palla, Luigi, Palli, Domenico, Panico, Salvatore, Quirós, J Ramón, Romaguera, Dora, Romieu, Isabelle, Sacerdote, Carlotta, Sánchez, María-José, Slimani, Nadia, Sluijs, Ivonne, Spijkerman, Annemieke M W, Teucher, Birgit, Tjonneland, Anne, Tumino, Rosario, van der A, Daphne L, van der Schouw, Yvonne T, Feskens, Edith J M, Riboli, Elio, Wareham, Nicholas J
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container_end_page e1001230
container_issue 6
container_start_page e1001230
container_title PLoS medicine
container_volume 9
creator Langenberg, Claudia
Sharp, Stephen J
Schulze, Matthias B
Rolandsson, Olov
Overvad, Kim
Forouhi, Nita G
Spranger, Joachim
Drogan, Dagmar
Huerta, José María
Arriola, Larraitz
de Lauzon-Guillan, Blandine
Tormo, Maria-Jose
Ardanaz, Eva
Balkau, Beverley
Beulens, Joline W J
Boeing, Heiner
Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas
Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise
Crowe, Francesca L
Franks, Paul W
Gonzalez, Carlos A
Grioni, Sara
Halkjaer, Jytte
Hallmans, Goran
Kaaks, Rudolf
Kerrison, Nicola D
Key, Timothy J
Khaw, Kay Tee
Mattiello, Amalia
Nilsson, Peter
Norat, Teresa
Palla, Luigi
Palli, Domenico
Panico, Salvatore
Quirós, J Ramón
Romaguera, Dora
Romieu, Isabelle
Sacerdote, Carlotta
Sánchez, María-José
Slimani, Nadia
Sluijs, Ivonne
Spijkerman, Annemieke M W
Teucher, Birgit
Tjonneland, Anne
Tumino, Rosario
van der A, Daphne L
van der Schouw, Yvonne T
Feskens, Edith J M
Riboli, Elio
Wareham, Nicholas J
description Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.
doi_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001230
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The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (&lt;94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (&gt;102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1549-1676</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1549-1277</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1549-1676</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001230</identifier><identifier>PMID: 22679397</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>abdominal adiposity ; Annan klinisk medicin ; Anthropometry ; association ; Body Mass Index ; cancer ; Clinical Medicine ; Cohort Studies ; Development and progression ; Diabetes ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - complications ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - epidemiology ; Endocrinology and Diabetes ; Endokrinologi och diabetes ; Europe - epidemiology ; Female ; Health aspects ; Humans ; Incidence ; Klinisk medicin ; Male ; Medical and Health Sciences ; Medical research ; Medicin och hälsovetenskap ; Medicine ; mellitus ; Middle Aged ; Nutrition ; Obesity ; Obesity - complications ; Obesity - physiopathology ; Other Clinical Medicine ; participants ; Physiological aspects ; prevention ; primary-care ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors ; Type 2 diabetes ; waist circumference ; Waist Circumference - physiology</subject><ispartof>PLoS medicine, 2012-06, Vol.9 (6), p.e1001230-e1001230</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2012 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2012 Langenberg et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited: The InterAct Consortium (2012) Long-Term Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes and Measures of Overall and Regional Obesity: The EPIC-InterAct Case-Cohort Study. PLoS Med 9(6): e1001230. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001230</rights><rights>Langenberg et al. 2012</rights><rights>Wageningen University &amp; Research</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c1020t-a623a3b175e2c5289a95ccb5354b495a1266eabbea6c32ef6803874558ecfbe83</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c1020t-a623a3b175e2c5289a95ccb5354b495a1266eabbea6c32ef6803874558ecfbe83</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3367997/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3367997/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,552,727,780,784,864,885,2102,2928,23866,27924,27925,53791,53793,79600,79601</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22679397$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-57667$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3001805$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Patel, Anushka</contributor><creatorcontrib>Langenberg, Claudia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sharp, Stephen J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schulze, Matthias B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rolandsson, Olov</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Overvad, Kim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Forouhi, Nita G</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Spranger, Joachim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Drogan, Dagmar</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Huerta, José María</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Arriola, Larraitz</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>de Lauzon-Guillan, Blandine</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tormo, Maria-Jose</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ardanaz, Eva</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Balkau, Beverley</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Beulens, Joline W J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boeing, Heiner</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Crowe, Francesca L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Franks, Paul W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gonzalez, Carlos A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Grioni, Sara</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Halkjaer, Jytte</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hallmans, Goran</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kaaks, Rudolf</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kerrison, Nicola D</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Key, Timothy J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Khaw, Kay Tee</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mattiello, Amalia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nilsson, Peter</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Norat, Teresa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Palla, Luigi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Palli, Domenico</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Panico, Salvatore</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Quirós, J Ramón</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Romaguera, Dora</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Romieu, Isabelle</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sacerdote, Carlotta</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sánchez, María-José</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Slimani, Nadia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sluijs, Ivonne</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Spijkerman, Annemieke M W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Teucher, Birgit</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tjonneland, Anne</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tumino, Rosario</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der A, Daphne L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Schouw, Yvonne T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Feskens, Edith J M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Riboli, Elio</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wareham, Nicholas J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>InterAct Consortium</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>The InterAct Consortium</creatorcontrib><title>Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study</title><title>PLoS medicine</title><addtitle>PLoS Med</addtitle><description>Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (&lt;94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (&gt;102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.</description><subject>abdominal adiposity</subject><subject>Annan klinisk medicin</subject><subject>Anthropometry</subject><subject>association</subject><subject>Body Mass Index</subject><subject>cancer</subject><subject>Clinical Medicine</subject><subject>Cohort Studies</subject><subject>Development and progression</subject><subject>Diabetes</subject><subject>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - complications</subject><subject>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - epidemiology</subject><subject>Endocrinology and Diabetes</subject><subject>Endokrinologi och diabetes</subject><subject>Europe - epidemiology</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Health aspects</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Klinisk medicin</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medical and Health Sciences</subject><subject>Medical research</subject><subject>Medicin och hälsovetenskap</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>mellitus</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Nutrition</subject><subject>Obesity</subject><subject>Obesity - complications</subject><subject>Obesity - physiopathology</subject><subject>Other Clinical Medicine</subject><subject>participants</subject><subject>Physiological aspects</subject><subject>prevention</subject><subject>primary-care</subject><subject>Proportional Hazards Models</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>Type 2 diabetes</subject><subject>waist circumference</subject><subject>Waist Circumference - 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(PLoS)</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>IOV</scope><scope>ISN</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7TK</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>7TS</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>ADHXS</scope><scope>ADTPV</scope><scope>AOWAS</scope><scope>D8T</scope><scope>D93</scope><scope>ZZAVC</scope><scope>AGCHP</scope><scope>D95</scope><scope>QVL</scope><scope>DOA</scope><scope>CZK</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20120601</creationdate><title>Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study</title><author>Langenberg, Claudia ; Sharp, Stephen J ; Schulze, Matthias B ; Rolandsson, Olov ; Overvad, Kim ; Forouhi, Nita G ; Spranger, Joachim ; Drogan, Dagmar ; Huerta, José María ; Arriola, Larraitz ; de Lauzon-Guillan, Blandine ; Tormo, Maria-Jose ; Ardanaz, Eva ; Balkau, Beverley ; Beulens, Joline W J ; Boeing, Heiner ; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas ; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise ; Crowe, Francesca L ; Franks, Paul W ; Gonzalez, Carlos A ; Grioni, Sara ; Halkjaer, Jytte ; Hallmans, Goran ; Kaaks, Rudolf ; Kerrison, Nicola D ; Key, Timothy J ; Khaw, Kay Tee ; Mattiello, Amalia ; Nilsson, Peter ; Norat, Teresa ; Palla, Luigi ; Palli, Domenico ; Panico, Salvatore ; Quirós, J Ramón ; Romaguera, Dora ; Romieu, Isabelle ; Sacerdote, Carlotta ; Sánchez, María-José ; Slimani, Nadia ; Sluijs, Ivonne ; Spijkerman, Annemieke M W ; Teucher, Birgit ; Tjonneland, Anne ; Tumino, Rosario ; van der A, Daphne L ; van der Schouw, Yvonne T ; Feskens, Edith J M ; Riboli, Elio ; Wareham, Nicholas J</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c1020t-a623a3b175e2c5289a95ccb5354b495a1266eabbea6c32ef6803874558ecfbe83</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2012</creationdate><topic>abdominal adiposity</topic><topic>Annan klinisk medicin</topic><topic>Anthropometry</topic><topic>association</topic><topic>Body Mass Index</topic><topic>cancer</topic><topic>Clinical Medicine</topic><topic>Cohort Studies</topic><topic>Development and progression</topic><topic>Diabetes</topic><topic>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - complications</topic><topic>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - epidemiology</topic><topic>Endocrinology and Diabetes</topic><topic>Endokrinologi och diabetes</topic><topic>Europe - epidemiology</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Health aspects</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Klinisk medicin</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Medical and Health Sciences</topic><topic>Medical research</topic><topic>Medicin och hälsovetenskap</topic><topic>Medicine</topic><topic>mellitus</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Nutrition</topic><topic>Obesity</topic><topic>Obesity - complications</topic><topic>Obesity - physiopathology</topic><topic>Other Clinical Medicine</topic><topic>participants</topic><topic>Physiological aspects</topic><topic>prevention</topic><topic>primary-care</topic><topic>Proportional Hazards Models</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><topic>Time Factors</topic><topic>Type 2 diabetes</topic><topic>waist circumference</topic><topic>Waist Circumference - physiology</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Langenberg, Claudia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sharp, Stephen J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schulze, Matthias 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Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Langenberg, Claudia</au><au>Sharp, Stephen J</au><au>Schulze, Matthias B</au><au>Rolandsson, Olov</au><au>Overvad, Kim</au><au>Forouhi, Nita G</au><au>Spranger, Joachim</au><au>Drogan, Dagmar</au><au>Huerta, José María</au><au>Arriola, Larraitz</au><au>de Lauzon-Guillan, Blandine</au><au>Tormo, Maria-Jose</au><au>Ardanaz, Eva</au><au>Balkau, Beverley</au><au>Beulens, Joline W J</au><au>Boeing, Heiner</au><au>Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas</au><au>Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise</au><au>Crowe, Francesca L</au><au>Franks, Paul W</au><au>Gonzalez, Carlos A</au><au>Grioni, Sara</au><au>Halkjaer, Jytte</au><au>Hallmans, Goran</au><au>Kaaks, Rudolf</au><au>Kerrison, Nicola D</au><au>Key, Timothy J</au><au>Khaw, Kay Tee</au><au>Mattiello, Amalia</au><au>Nilsson, Peter</au><au>Norat, Teresa</au><au>Palla, Luigi</au><au>Palli, Domenico</au><au>Panico, Salvatore</au><au>Quirós, J Ramón</au><au>Romaguera, Dora</au><au>Romieu, Isabelle</au><au>Sacerdote, Carlotta</au><au>Sánchez, María-José</au><au>Slimani, Nadia</au><au>Sluijs, Ivonne</au><au>Spijkerman, Annemieke M W</au><au>Teucher, Birgit</au><au>Tjonneland, Anne</au><au>Tumino, Rosario</au><au>van der A, Daphne L</au><au>van der Schouw, Yvonne T</au><au>Feskens, Edith J M</au><au>Riboli, Elio</au><au>Wareham, Nicholas J</au><au>Patel, Anushka</au><aucorp>InterAct Consortium</aucorp><aucorp>The InterAct Consortium</aucorp><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study</atitle><jtitle>PLoS medicine</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS Med</addtitle><date>2012-06-01</date><risdate>2012</risdate><volume>9</volume><issue>6</issue><spage>e1001230</spage><epage>e1001230</epage><pages>e1001230-e1001230</pages><issn>1549-1676</issn><issn>1549-1277</issn><eissn>1549-1676</eissn><abstract>Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (&lt;94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (&gt;102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>22679397</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pmed.1001230</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects abdominal adiposity
Annan klinisk medicin
Anthropometry
association
Body Mass Index
cancer
Clinical Medicine
Cohort Studies
Development and progression
Diabetes
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - complications
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - epidemiology
Endocrinology and Diabetes
Endokrinologi och diabetes
Europe - epidemiology
Female
Health aspects
Humans
Incidence
Klinisk medicin
Male
Medical and Health Sciences
Medical research
Medicin och hälsovetenskap
Medicine
mellitus
Middle Aged
Nutrition
Obesity
Obesity - complications
Obesity - physiopathology
Other Clinical Medicine
participants
Physiological aspects
prevention
primary-care
Proportional Hazards Models
Risk Factors
Time Factors
Type 2 diabetes
waist circumference
Waist Circumference - physiology
title Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study
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